At the end of October 2025, seven of the eight teams in last place in their division had either one or two wins. The only exception was the 3-4 Minnesota Vikings.
By the end of the year, seven of those eight clubs still sat in last place, with Minnesota again the only outlier. The Vikings closed out the regular season by winning six of their last 10 games, which was just enough for a third-place finish but not enough to earn a playoff spot.
The moral of the story is that recovering from a slow start is a tall task. This season could be different, though. Two of the last-place teams after Week 7 have winning records, and not every division has a clear contender pulling away from the rest of the field.
Here's a look at which last-place teams can realistically hope to climb back into the postseason race and which ones are toast:
Miami Dolphins
Do they still have a chance? Not this year.
Head coach Jeff Hafley deserves a tip of the cap for how hard the Dolphins have played in 2026, despite working with a roster stripped for parts in the offseason. Well over half of the squad's salary cap is going to a $186.9-million dead-money bill this season, led by Tua Tagovailoa's $55.4-million cap charge. No other team has even $120 million in dead-money obligations.
Miami still found a way to beat the Jets and kept things close in losses to the Vikings and Bengals.
While that's respectable, it's clear the Dolphins are a long way from keeping pace with the Bills and Patriots in the AFC East.
Baltimore Ravens
Do they still have a chance? The window is still wide open.
The Ravens are one of two last-place teams (along with the Packers) that have a winning record through seven weeks. They're also only one game behind the Browns, who remain the inexplicable leaders of the razor-tight AFC North.
Baltimore has stayed in the race despite Lamar Jackson's absence for the last three weeks. Tyler Huntley has played relatively well in his stead, but the Ravens are 1-2 with the backup under center. With Jackson ready to make his return as early as this weekend against the Bills, the 2026 season is far from over for Baltimore.
Tennessee Titans
Do they still have a chance? It'd take a miracle.
After a rough rookie year, former No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward is struggling through his second season, too. The Titans are dead last in offensive yardage, and Ward's 73.8 passer rating ranks 30th among starters, ahead of only Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert.
That disastrous offensive play is wasting a defense that hasn't been terrible. The Titans rank 15th in points allowed, and they've forced five turnovers in the last two weeks, paving the way for a victory over the Colts and a near-win against the Browns.
If Ward and the offense keep floundering, the Titans are doomed to another season as a doormat. That's the likely scenario. However, the light clicking on for Ward and Tennessee's other young offensive players isn't impossible. Enough to climb out of a 1-6 hole and compete for a playoff spot? Don't hold your breath.
Los Angeles Chargers
Do they still have a chance? That ship has sailed.
The Chargers are the NFL's only remaining winless team, largely because of their almost cartoonish inability to avoid mistakes. They've already committed 15 turnovers in six games, nearly matching last season's total of 21.
Hypothetically, the Chargers could turn back into a decent football team again if they just stopped shooting themselves in the foot at every turn. But there's not much reason to believe that'll happen, and even if they did improve, overcoming their 0-6 start would take a Herculean effort.
The 5-1 Chiefs and 5-2 Broncos are way out in front in the AFC West, and the Chargers still have upcoming matchups against those teams, as well as the Rams, Ravens, Patriots, and 49ers.
Washington Commanders
Do they still have a chance? It's not impossible.
Between Jayden Daniels' struggles to stay healthy and the Commanders' general inability to navigate tough situations, they seem like a team going nowhere. Then again, that describes most of the NFC East.
The Giants lead the division at 4-2-1, but it's hard to fully trust J.J. McCarthy - New York's third starting quarterback this year - to get the job done. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's in a tailspin, and the Cowboys' defense hasn't done much to stop anyone.
With the Eagles, Giants, Cardinals, and Titans on the Commanders' schedule over the next six weeks, Daniels and Co. have a chance to flip the script and climb back into the mix.
Green Bay Packers
Do they still have a chance? Wait, they're in last place?
The Packers' 4-3 start probably isn't what they had in mind at the beginning of the year, but Green Bay certainly has no reason to panic. All things considered, they're in a pretty good spot.
While the 6-0 Vikings may be the NFL's only undefeated squad, they've been far from an unbeatable juggernaut. Each of the three teams trailing Minnesota, including the Packers, also boasts a winning record and could feasibly contend for the division crown.
What's especially promising for Green Bay is the impact that Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons could have in the back half of the season. Jacobs, who missed six games due to an ongoing NFL investigation into domestic violence charges, returned in Week 7 and should help lift a rushing attack that's been the league's worst. Parsons is still recovering from the knee injury that ended his 2025 campaign, but he could return to practice as early as next week.
Although the Packers may be in last place, they're still in great shape to make a postseason run.
New Orleans Saints
Do they still have a chance? It's unlikely, but not completely hopeless.
Just when you think you've got the NFC South figured out, the previously winless Buccaneers blow out the first-place Panthers and shake things up. After that one-sided Week 7 result, no team in the division has a winning record, while the last-place Saints trail Carolina by just 1.5 games.
The favorite at this point may be the 3-4 Falcons, who had huge wins against the Packers and 49ers but crumbled late against the Huntley-led Ravens. Similarly, Carolina has coupled impressive showings against Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia with puzzlingly awful performances against the Browns and Bucs.
Hampered by an inconsistent offense and a porous defense, New Orleans will have an uphill climb to string together enough wins to stay in the race. However, until the top contenders show some semblance of consistency, the division is still up for grabs.
Arizona Cardinals
Do they still have a chance? It's not happening.
The Cardinals are 2-0 in SoFi Stadium this season, but they haven't won a game anywhere else. While those road victories against the Chargers and Rams were a great sign that new coach Mike LaFleur will steer the ship in the right direction, the roster still isn't good enough to realistically compete in the brutally tough NFC West.
With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, the Cardinals could fall even further behind if they prioritize the future and trade away veterans like Josh Sweat and Budda Baker.
Adam Stites is a contributing writer for theScore.
