Ask any NFL team about its goals for the season ahead, and they'll all tell you the same thing. Everyone enters camp chasing a Lombardi Trophy.
Realistically, however, only a few clubs stand a chance of coming away with football's ultimate prize. From the top dogs all the way down to those vying for the No. 1 pick, we're separating the real contenders from the rest of the pack.
Front-runners
The Rams could probably be placed in their own tier. Led by perhaps the best coaching staff in football, Los Angeles had a Super Bowl-caliber roster even before bolstering the defense with Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie this offseason. The Rams are shaping up as a legitimate juggernaut.
The defending champion Seahawks are the biggest threat to L.A.'s title aspirations. Mike Macdonald needed just two years to build the best defense in football, and Sam Darnold's connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba should help the offense withstand the loss of Klint Kubiak.
I see the Ravens taking a massive step forward in their first season under Jesse Minter. His arrival, along with the addition of Trey Hendrickson, could immediately give Baltimore the defense it needs to complement the offensive fireworks provided by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
Could the Patriots regress a little bit in the second year under Mike Vrabel? Sure. But the arrow is still pointing directly up for Drake Maye, and he gets an improved supporting cast with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs on board.
Josh Allen has to get a ring eventually, right? The Bills' offense will be one of the league's best as long as No. 17 is under center, and the DJ Moore trade gives him an important upgrade at receiver. And don't sleep on the potential impact of new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard's arrival from Denver.
In the mix
If the 49ers can reel off 12 wins during a season plagued by injuries, a Super Bowl is definitely on the table with their key players back in action. I also think adding Osa Odighizuwa to the defensive line will prove to be the best trade of the entire offseason.
The Texans undoubtedly have a championship defense; what they need is above-average production on the other side of the ball. After a series of moves to address their issues on the offensive line and an underrated trade for David Montgomery to spearhead the run game, I really believe C.J. Stroud can recapture the outstanding form he showed in his rookie season.
The Eagles might have the widest range of outcomes among clear Super Bowl contenders. There's some uncertainty about how everything will come together under new leadership on offense, not to mention the loss of offensive line guru Jeff Stoutland. This could be the year the wheels fall off for Nick Sirianni. But I think this defense is both too good to let that happen and potentially dominant enough to carry Philly all the way.
Bo Nix may not be the kind of quarterback who consistently puts his team on his back, but he doesn't need to with the talent he has around him in Denver. Jaylen Waddle adds a game-breaker to the receiving corps, the elite offensive line returns all five starters, and a top-five defense routinely puts the clamps on opponents. The Broncos have everything they need.
The Chiefs always play good defense under Steve Spagnuolo, and addiing Mansoor Delane and L'Jarius Sneed at corner should help him navigate the departures of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. While asking Patrick Mahomes to carry another mediocre receiving corps could be an issue after he tore his ACL last season, Kenneth Walker III's ability to lead a new and improved run game should give Kansas City valuable support.
And then there's the Lions. The NFL's easiest strength of schedule should help this team cruise back into the playoffs after a frustrating 2025 campaign. Although I have some questions about the defense - particularly with standout defensive backs Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph still working their way back from injuries - an improved offensive line should set the stage for Detroit's supremely talented scoring unit to rebound in a big way.
Outside chance
The Bears are likely a playoff team, and they would've cracked the second tier had they been the slightest bit aggressive in addressing their glaring pass-rush need. Although Chicago could still fill that hole at some point this summer, or even leading up to the midseason trade deadline, I'm still concerned the defense might not have enough to complement Ben Johnson's offense against top NFC competition come January.
The Chargers narrowly missed out on the second tier because the defense could slide a bit after losing Minter, even though Mike McDaniel's arrival as offensive coordinator puts Justin Herbert in position for the best year of his career. Los Angeles is in the mix as a legitimate contender.
Here's something I didn't think I'd be saying this time last year: I really like what the Cowboys are doing under Brian Schottenheimer. Working with offensive coordinator Klayton Adams, Schottenheimer has built one of the best (and most balanced) scoring units in the game. While the defense will likely still have to work through some issues, the offseason additions should be more than enough to give Dallas a fighting chance.
The same goes for Cincinnati. We all know what Joe Burrow can do with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and now he has the luxury of working behind a sneaky good offensive line. If the superstar quarterback can stay on the field, the Bengals will have one of the NFL's best offenses. On the other side of the ball, Dexter Lawrence and a new-look defense should push the Bengals back to the postseason for the first time since 2022. The key question is whether that unit has improved enough to deal with teams like the Ravens and Bills (among others) when the postseason arrives.
If the Packers can sneak into the playoffs with all of their key players healthy, they'll be the kind of squad you don't want to meet in January. Don't sleep on Jordan Love as an MVP candidate either. My only real worry is whether Micah Parsons being sidelined deep into October will put Green Bay in too big a hole in the NFL's most competitive division.
I'm all-in on this Jaguars offense. Liam Coen knows exactly how to get the most out of Trevor Lawrence, and this cast of playmakers - including Travis Hunter, who's still expected to have a two-way role - could set the stage for even better results in their second season together. One lingering concern: How sustainable is last year's surprise defensive breakout?
Bubble teams
The Bucs' offense getting healthy should make a huge difference when it comes to putting points on the board consistently, and I am irrationally high on rookies Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter as perfect fits for a Todd Bowles defense. But I'll have to see that unit figure things out with my own eyes before I can truly buy in. Baker Mayfield also needs to be better than he was after a hot start to last season.
The Vikings are one of my favorite dark-horse teams. Perhaps it's not long before we're reminded why the Cardinals were content to move on from Kyler Murray. Personally, I think we've reached a point where he's become quite underrated. He's certainly a massive improvement over what Minnesota got at quarterback last season. Assuming we don't see a stunning drop-off from one of the NFL's best defenses, that'll be more than enough for the Vikings to make some noise.
I never imagined the Colts racing out to an 8-2 start last year, so perhaps I'm underestimating them again, but I just can't get excited about the ceiling of a team led by Daniel Jones coming off a torn Achilles. With Alec Pierce still working his way back from offseason ankle surgery, this offense could potentially face some major challenges.
The Saints seem like everyone's favorite sleeper, and I admit I see the vision. New Orleans has done an excellent job of building an offense around Tyler Shough, and the defense was much better than people realize under Brandon Staley last year. In the crowded NFC playoff picture, however, it might take another season for this up-and-coming team to become a true threat.
The Panthers have a chance to take a meaningful step forward after backing into the NFC South title last year. Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips round out the front seven, giving Ejiro Evero the pieces for a borderline top-10 defense, and Rasheed Walker and Monroe Freeling are important additions to bolster the offensive line. Still, Carolina's ceiling depends on Bryce Young. He's shown flashes but is still searching for some semblance of consistency heading into Year 4.
Jayden Daniels staying healthy is, of course, the key to Washington's playoff chances. The offense should be poised to rebound with the star quarterback back under center after he missed 10 games in 2025. The question is whether the volume of moves the Commanders made on defense will be enough for Dan Quinn to put together a suitable complement.
I'm actually pretty bullish on Pittsburgh's defense this season. It's a little too dependent on a cast of aging veterans, but Patrick Graham taking over at coordinator should give this talented group a better chance from a scheme perspective. Whether the Steelers make a playoff push or stumble to their first losing season since 2003 likely depends on what they get out of a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers. I think we know what's more likely.
The Falcons earn a spot among the bubble teams largely because anything is possible in the NFC South. Bijan Robinson and Drake London could very well drag this team to the eight wins needed to be in the hunt for the division. I just fear that a quarterback competition between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. makes Atlanta's floor quite a bit lower than that.
Playing for progress
Although the Giants will be widely seen as a potential surprise playoff team, I just can't get on that hype train. The roster improved at some key spots, but it also lost Dexter Lawrence, and Malik Nabers may not be ready for the start of the season. It's also worth noting that John Harbaugh tabbed Matt Nagy as his offensive coordinator, and Greg Roman is also on board in a senior assistant role. Dial back your expectations of how much coaching will do to elevate this team.
Heading into the offseason, I identified the Titans as a team that might follow the Patriots' blueprint in building around a sophomore quarterback. That's exactly what they did, using an influx of cap space and premium draft capital to completely turn over a barren roster. Those moves, along with the upgrade in coaching under Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll, should make Tennessee much more competitive. There's a lot more work to be done before we start talking playoffs, though.
Bringing in a collection of veteran players isn't my favorite offseason strategy during a rebuild, although that's what the Jets did. I'd rather see those reps go to young players who might be around for the long haul. That said, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, and Geno Smith, among others, could be a solid group of leaders that serves as a bridge to the future. Mix in the rookies added on draft weekend, including three first-round picks, and New York has one of the league's most improved rosters, even if its ceiling still isn't all that high.
The Raiders should be far more competent than they were in 2025. That's partly because they couldn't have set the bar any lower, but their transformational offseason doesn't hurt. A free-agent spending spree, including a monster deal for Tyler Linderbaum, bolstered the roster at a number of problem spots. And they may finally have their quarterback of the future after landing Fernando Mendoza to headline an impressive rookie class. It may be a while before fans get to see him play: The Raiders seem set on having Kirk Cousins start while they take their time with the No. 1 pick. Regardless, there aren't many obvious wins on this gauntlet of a schedule.
I love what the Browns did this offseason. Andrew Berry worked some magic to retool the offensive line in free agency before rounding out the new group with Spencer Fano early in the draft. And the new left tackle was just the first of several picks in a true home-run draft class - KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston are particularly intriguing additions at receiver. As exciting as the overhaul may be, however, the Browns likely won't sniff a playoff spot until they find a quarterback. And the defense could be in for a bit of a setback after sending Myles Garrett to the Rams in June.
Basement dwellers
Consider this tier as the two top contenders for the No. 1 overall pick.
The Cardinals already have some exciting young pieces on both sides of the ball. First-round rookie Jeremiyah Love should quickly establish himself as one of the most dynamic running backs in the game, and Mike LaFleur's system could finally unlock Marvin Harrison Jr.'s potential as a top receiver alongside Pro Bowl tight end Trey McBride. Walter Nolen and Will Johnson form a similarly promising tandem on defense. But Arizona's quarterback situation, among other glaring roster issues, could make this a rough season - particularly with six games against legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the NFC West.
Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley came to Miami together from Green Bay, and a teardown is probably a wise first move if they intend to give the Dolphins a sustained opportunity to contend. But the pursuit of that future gain involves some real short-term pain. Even if Malik Willis looks good in his first opportunity as a full-time starter, it's tough to imagine this league-worst roster achieving more than a few sporadic wins. The silver lining? A long season is a small price to pay if it gets you Arch Manning in next year's draft.
