Quarterbacks have historically dominated the Super Bowl MVP award. The position has won 17 of the last 26, and this year is expected to be more of the same.
Sam Darnold is the clear favorite to earn the honor. The Seahawks quarterback is +115 to win MVP at theScore Bet, with his team priced as a -225 favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Drake Maye, who will become the second-youngest starting quarterback in Super Bowl history, is second on the oddsboard at +260, meaning the implied probability of either Darnold or Maye winning the award is 74.3%.
Super Bowl MVP odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +115 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +260 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | +550 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | +700 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +3000 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | +4000 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | +5000 |
| Drew Lock (SEA) | +7500 |
| Nick Emmanwori (SEA) | +7500 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | +10000 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence (SEA) | +10000 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | +10000 |
| Jason Myers (SEA) | +10000 |
| Leonard Williams (SEA) | +10000 |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | +10000 |
| Marcus Jones (NE) | +10000 |
Wide receivers have won the award the second most since 2000, taking it home five times. Cooper Kupp was the most recent winner at the position, claiming the award with the Rams in Super Bowl LVI, and the Seattle wideout would become the first non-quarterback to capture the honor twice if he can cash his +10000 odds. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the third favorite at +550, and he proved those odds are warranted with his jaw-dropping 10-153-1 stat line in the NFC Championship Game.
However, plenty of scenarios could put other positions in the MVP driver's seat. Running backs are much less reliant on quarterbacks than receivers to put up award-winning stats in the Super Bowl. In fact, they may benefit from a quarterback having a poor game but still being on the winning team. With that said, the last running back to win the MVP was Terrell Davis in 1998.
Kenneth Walker III is +700, and then there's a huge gap before Rhamondre Stevenson follows on the oddsboard at +3000. There's an argument to be made that Walker is a better option at his current odds than Smith-Njigba, since Walker could break a couple of long runs for touchdowns that would eat into both Darnold's and Smith-Njigba's potential production.
Defensive players have an outside chance too. Von Miller was the most recent MVP on the defensive side of the ball, and when the Seahawks last won the Super Bowl in 2014, linebacker Malcolm Smith took home the MVP hardware. Rookie Nick Emmanwori (+7500) has the shortest odds of all defenders in the Super Bowl, although he would likely need multiple turnovers and a touchdown to steal the award from an offensive player.
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