Saturday NFL bets: NFC West, South titles up for grabs in 2-game slate

Settle in for an awesome two-game slate, folks.

First up, the Buccaneers welcome the Panthers with the NFC South crown up for grabs. If the Panthers win, the division is theirs. If they lose, they would need the Falcons to beat the Saints on Sunday, or else the Bucs claim the division.

Then, the Seahawks head to San Francisco to face the 49ers in a matchup that not only decides the NFC West champion but also determines the conference's top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Let's get to our picks against the spread, touchdown scorer bets, and favorite player props for Saturday's two-game lineup.

👉 Check out all of the markets available for Saturday's games on theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Buccaneers (-2.5)

These teams met two weeks ago, and the Buccaneers closed as 2.5-point favorites in Carolina, a spread that suggested they would've roughly been 5.5-point favorites had the game been in Tampa Bay. The market's opinion of this matchup has changed drastically two weeks later, with the Bucs now only 2.5-point favorites at home.

However, I can't back the Panthers in a must-win game after seeing what Bryce Young did last week against the Seahawks. He went 12 for 24 for 54 yards, threw one interception, and took two sacks. While I could be overreacting to one contest and should look more closely at Carolina's victory over the Bucs two weeks ago, Tampa clearly has the advantage at quarterback with Baker Mayfield - a crucial aspect in a matchup of this magnitude.

The Bucaneers aren't playing great football, losers of four straight and seven of their last eight, which has put them into this must-win situation. But all four of those recent losses were by four points or less, indicating that a play here or there could've flipped the narrative around Tampa heading into Week 18.

The Bucs are the home team and boast a better offense and defense, per SumerSports' expected points added per play (EPA/play). When you also account for their experience playing in must-win games and quarterback advantage, they're the side to back.

🏈 Pick: 49ers (+1.5)

These NFC West rivals played in Week 1, when the 49ers closed as 1.5-point favorites in Seattle and won 17-13. A lot has changed since then, making it tough to draw anything from that game's closing spread, except that the market believed the 49ers were the better team before the season.

Now, the market views the Seahawks as a much better squad, as this spread would have Seattle as roughly 4.5-point favorites if the contest were being played in the Pacific Northwest. I'm not entirely sold on that.

The 49ers' offense is on a different level right now. Had Brock Purdy maintained his recent form throughout the season, he'd be an MVP front-runner. Seemingly able to score touchdowns at will, San Francisco has averaged 42.3 points over its last three outings. Although the 49ers' defense is also conceding a lot of points, I'm not so sure the Seahawks' fairly basic offense - heavily reliant on the run and throwing to Jaxon Smith-Njigba - can exploit San Francisco's weakness.

Plus, Sam Darnold has done little throughout his career to prove he can win big games. This isn't a do-or-die situation, but the winner has a clear path to the Super Bowl, while the loser will have to go on the road for next week's wild-card round. The stakes are high, and Darnold has crumbled under similar pressure.

The 49ers' defense will be prepared for Darnold. They know his strengths and weaknesses better than most teams since he spent a season in San Francisco in 2023. In a similar strategy for Saturday's first game, I'll take the home side with the superior quarterback.

NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+165)

Carolina's red-zone run defense is among the worst in the league, as it's allowed the third-most rushing scores to running backs this season. We'll trust Irving on Tampa Bay's side to score in this game, and you get solid value at this number for a starting tailback.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+550)

Alright, let's get wild. Young has been using his legs a ton in recent weeks, as his 25 carries since Nov. 29 rank fifth among all quarterbacks. He scored a rushing touchdown last week and will face a Buccaneers defense that's allowed the second-most scores and sixth-most yards on the ground to signal-callers this campaign.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+155)

We'll stack Kittle's over in receiving and go with him to score a touchdown as well. He found the end zone when these teams met in Week 1, and he has seven TDs in 10 games this season.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+165)

Barner rarely leaves the field, as he's played over 82% of Seattle's offensive snaps since Week 11. He's also scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and has a great matchup on Saturday against a San Francisco defense that's surrendered the second-most targets and fifth-most scores to tight ends this year.

🏈 Bet: Over 33.5 receiving yards

Knowing Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, he'll do everything in his power to remove Tetairoa McMillan from this game. Insert Coker, an important piece of the Panthers' offense in Week 18. He's been over this total in four of his last six matchups and went way over 33.5 when these teams met two weeks ago.

🏈 Bet: Over 29.5 receiving yards

McMillan has been getting a ton of action since returning from injury, and this number is low after he totaled 114 receiving yards last week. He's been over this number in two of his previous three contests and should remain a crucial part of Tampa Bay's passing attack in the season finale.

🏈 Bet: Over 62.5 rushing and receiving yards

Averaging 73.5 scrimmage yards per game this campaign, Walker has hit over this number in four of his last seven games. He should get a ton of action on the ground and faces a 49ers defense that's conceded the second-most targets and receptions to running backs in 2025.

🏈 Bet: Over 62.5 receiving yards

Returning from a one-game absence, Kittle should see a full workload of snaps. He's been over this number in six consecutive outings, and the Seahawks' defense has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.