NFL Christmas Day picks: Unwrapping why all 3 favorites are worth trusting
Move aside, NBA - the NFL is taking over Christmas Day.
However, the three-game slate on deck to accompany Thursday's festivities looked a lot more appetizing before the season started. Now, injuries and poor performances have taken the shine off four of the six teams hitting the field.
The Cowboys, Commanders, Vikings, and Chiefs have all been eliminated from the playoffs. Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes are sidelined, while J.J. McCarthy is also at risk of missing out.
With that said, here are our picks against the spread to hopefully sweeten your Christmas Day viewing.
π Check out all markets available on theScore Bet for the Chirstmas Day slate here
π Pick: Cowboys (-6.5)
There's a good chance Marcus Mariota will sit out this game due to a hand injury, a leg injury, or both. Mariota exited Week 16's contest and was replaced by veteran Josh Johnson, who's a third-string quarterback for a reason. I'd expect this line to move further in the Cowboys' favor if Johnson gets the nod for Washington.
Even if Mariota plays, I don't see how the Commanders can score enough points to keep up with the Cowboys. Both teams have terrible defenses, with Washington allowing the second-most yards per game and Dallas surrendering the third-most. The Cowboys are the ones to back because their offense can score 40 points any given week. Meanwhile, the Commanders' offense can't do that.
π Pick: Lions (-6.5)
McCarthy may miss this matchup with a hand injury, which means Max Brosmer could get his second start of the season. Brosmer's first outing was one of the worst by a starting quarterback this year, throwing four interceptions, taking four sacks, and completing 19 of 30 passes for 126 yards against the Seahawks.
Detroit still has a chance to make the playoffs, but a win here is essential to keep its hopes alive. The club is on its first two-game losing streak since the start of 2023, and I'd be shocked if it dropped three in a row.
The Lions are playing indoors in a must-win matchup, potentially facing Brosmer, and are favored by just 6.5 points. That doesn't seem like much to ask for one of the league's most desperate teams.
π Pick: Broncos (-13.5)
Mahomes tore his ACL two weeks ago before Gardner Minshew injured his knee in his first start as the replacement. The Chiefs are having a horrible run of luck at quarterback to close out the campaign, capping one of the most forgettable years for the organization in decades. Andy Reid now turns to Chris Oladokun, a 2022 seventh-round pick by the Steelers, who's set to make his first NFL start.
This is a huge spread for a divisional game, but I can't make a strong enough case for the Chiefs, especially after last week's 26-9 loss to the lowly Titans. You have to imagine Kansas City's players have checked out at this point, a stark contrast from the Super Bowl aspirations they opened the season with.
Despite this meeting having much less intrigue than a few weeks ago, I expect a huge effort from the Broncos, since they're still fighting for the AFC's top seed.
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