TNF bets: Falcons look to slow Bucs' run at division title
The Falcons are paying a visit to Tampa Bay for an NFC South showdown. The Buccaneers are in the thick of a division race with the Panthers - both teams sit 7-6 - while Atlanta will look to play spoiler as it closes out a disappointing campaign.
Here's our pick against the spread (ATS), touchdown scorer bets, and favorite player props for the Thursday nighter.
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π Pick: Falcons (+4.5)
After weeks of winning and covering games by the smallest of margins to begin the season, the Bucs' luck finally ran out. They've failed to cover in six of their last seven games, with their only cover coming in a 23-3 victory over the Saints in Week 8.
Tampa Bay is getting healthier on offense, but it hasn't seemed to matter. The team has failed to score more than 20 points in three straight games, going 0-2 ATS versus the Cardinals and Saints.
The Falcons have their flaws, but they rate similarly to the teams that the Buccaneers have lost to and struggled to beat in recent weeks. This divisional matchup comes during a short week, which should lead to a tighter, lower-scoring affair.
Atlanta was blown out by the Seahawks last week but is still 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog. I like the Falcons to bounce back with a strong effort against a familiar foe and keep this closer than the market expects.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg is our "Anytime TD Guy," providing touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+130)
I'll keep it chalk on the Tampa Bay side and roll with Irving at plus-money. He's scored in both of his appearances since returning from injury two weeks ago, recording 36 touches during that stretch. Atlanta hasn't been great at shutting down opposing running backs, allowing 12 total touchdowns to the position this season.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+225)
Pitts' 35 targets from Kirk Cousins this season are 16 more than any other pass-catcher on the team. He's recorded 13 receptions for 172 yards over his last two outings, and with Drake London out Thursday, Pitts should continue to be the focal point of Atlanta's air attack.
π Bet: Over 16.5 rushing attempts
Robinson has seen an increase in usage since Cousins took over as the starting quarterback. He's rushed at least 17 times in four of his past five games, including two of three with Cousins at the helm. The Bucs can be a difficult team to run on, but that shouldn't discourage the Falcons from relying heavily on their best offensive player.
π Bet: Over 6.5 receptions
Pitts is Cousins' favorite target when London is sidelined. The tight end has caught six passes in back-to-back games on 18 total targets. The Bucs give up the sixth-most passing yards per game (237.8), and Pitts is capable of exploiting Tampa Bay's biggest weakness.
π Bet: Over 19.5 receiving yards
It's taken Godwin a bit to get up to speed after missing a lot of time with leg injuries, but he now seems to be full healthy. He's caught eight passes for 133 yards over his last two games, including receptions of 21 and 31 yards. The Falcons allow 12.8 yards per reception, which is the 11th-highest mark in the league.
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