MNF bets: Bears seek revenge on Commanders after last year's Hail Mary
Week 6 closes with another Monday night doubleheader. The Commanders welcome the Bears after last year's stunning Hail Mary, and the Bills visit Atlanta for a date with the Falcons.
We've got you covered with picks for each game, player props, and touchdown scorers to try to end the week with some winning bets.
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🏈 Pick: Falcons (+4.5)
Through five weeks, perhaps the Bills aren't as good as everyone was led to believe. Buffalo is still considered the Super Bowl favorite but is coming off a loss to the Patriots and hasn't covered a spread in three consecutive games.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are fresh off a bye, and the betting market may still have a bad taste in its mouth after their 30-0 loss to the Panthers in Week 3. The Falcons hung tough with the Buccaneers to open the season, picked up an impressive road victory against the Vikings, and handled the Commanders with ease in their last matchup.
This could be Atlanta's best defensive unit in a very long time - it's allowing the NFL's fewest yards per game (259.5). The Falcons are a borderline playoff team, and anytime you can back a club of that caliber getting 4.5 points at home, take the value and run.
🏈 Pick: Commanders (-4.5)
Jayden Daniels returned last week and led the Commanders to a convincing road victory over the Chargers. While Daniels' return was extremely important, Jacory Croskey-Merritt will be vital for the Commanders' chances Monday night against the Bears.
Croskey-Merritt ran for 111 yards on 14 carries last week, finally realizing the potential that earned him so much hype during training camp. The fact that the Commanders now have a lead back they can rely on will help the offense tremendously, especially against a Bears defense that allows 164.5 rushing yards per game, second most in the league.
The Bears have made strides under new head coach Ben Johnson, and coming off a bye will help their preparation. But Chicago's defense remains a huge liability, and the Commanders will be able to exploit that weakness on the ground, opening up the passing attack for Daniels.
🏈 Bet: Over 229.5 passing yards
Allen has only surpassed this total twice this season, both times in games where the Bills needed him to throw. He didn't throw for 230 yards against the Jets, Dolphins, or Saints - and those contests weren't very competitive. Expect Allen to be forced to air it out, since the Falcons' offense is capable of scoring and the Bills could be trailing.
🏈 Bet: Over 109.5 rush + receiving yards
The Bills allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game (145.6), and the Falcons will lean on Robinson heavily to keep them in the game. Robinson could surpass this number on the ground alone, but he's also one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. He's combined for 110 or more total yards in all four games he's played this season.
🏈 Bet: Over 64.5 rushing yards
Croskey-Merritt is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season, so he'd only need 10 carries in this game at his current average to hit the over. He'll likely see closer to 15 carries after last week's breakout, especially with Chris Rodriguez Jr., his backfield competition for touches, dealing with a calf injury. The Bears can't stop the run, setting up Croskey-Merritt for another big game.
🏈 Bet: Longest reception over 24.5 yards
Odunze leads all Bears receivers in yards, receptions, touchdowns, and targets this season, clearly becoming Caleb Williams' No. 1 option. He's caught a reception for over 24.5 yards in three of his last four games, and the Commanders are susceptible through the air, especially deep. Washington was gouged by long balls from the Packers, Raiders, and Falcons and has conceded a 25-yard reception in every game this year.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+105)
If you get the 2024 MVP at plus odds in a game, jump on it. Allen already has 40 rushing attempts and three touchdowns this season and leads all NFL quarterbacks in red-zone carries with 12. The star signal-caller has posted 30 rushing scores in his last 39 contests.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+150)
The 2024 first-round pick has been the Bears' top pass-catcher this season, leading the team in targets (35), receptions (20), receiving yards (296), and touchdowns (five). Washington's secondary has surrendered the fourth-most touchdowns to wideouts heading into Week 6.
🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+400)
Our long shot of the night goes to the electric rookie, who's now the top running back on the Commanders' roster. Croskey-Merritt scored two touchdowns last week against the Chargers and has a great matchup Monday. Chicago's defense has struggled against the run this season, ranking 26th in rush success rate and 31st in rushing yards allowed per game.
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