Chiefs-Chargers betting preview: Can Harbaugh stay undefeated in Week 1?

The Chiefs begin their march to another Super Bowl appearance with a Week 1 date against the Chargers in São Paulo, Brazil. The Friday night showdown between AFC West rivals marks the NFL's second trip to South America.

Patrick Mahomes and Co. will be looking to avoid the dreaded Super Bowl hangover after their crushing loss to the Eagles in February. Meanwhile, the Chargers have championship aspirations in their second year with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, and an early win over the Chiefs would go a long way toward a potential division title.

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🏈 Pick: Chargers +3.5

The Chiefs won 15 games last season and reached the Super Bowl for the third consecutive year. The most important pieces of that playoff run have returned, and Kansas City is undoubtedly the better team in this game.

However, this is a tough opening-week draw for the Chiefs. The spread should take the neutral site into account, but it doesn't seem to have adjusted enough. This spread suggests the Chiefs would be closer to a 5-point favorite at Arrowhead, but it wouldn't be surprising if they're only a 3.5-point favorite when they host the Chargers in Week 16.

Harbaugh went 12-6 against the spread (ATS) last season and 5-1 against division opponents. He's also 5-0 in season openers as an NFL head coach and 5-0 ATS. Yes, the Chargers have lost seven straight to the Chiefs, but four of those games were decided by three or fewer points. Take the underdog in what should be a tight divisional contest.

🏈 Patrick Mahomes over 240.5 passing yards

Mahomes threw for more than 240.5 yards in 12 of 19 games last year (including playoffs). The Chiefs had one of the highest passing rates (64%), and they did little in the offseason to suggest they'll change their philosophy. Even though Mahomes' regular-season stats have dipped over the past two years, he can still throw for more than 240.5 yards in this one.

🏈 Xavier Worthy over 5.5 receptions

Xavier Worthy was heavily involved in the Chiefs' offense at the end of last year, a unit that will look very similar in Week 1. He received six or more targets in his final nine games and caught six or more passes in five of his last six.

Rashee Rice's suspension makes Worthy the go-to option for Mahomes, especially since we don't know how much gas Travis Kelce has left in the tank. Worthy often catches passes around the line of scrimmage and uses his speed to rack up yardage after the catch. Those high-percentage targets make it a lot easier to secure six or more passes.

🏈 Omarion Hampton over 47.5 rushing yards

Harbaugh loves to run the football and has a new shiny toy in Omarion Hampton to carry the Chargers' offense on the ground. This is a very low total for a player who projects to handle the majority of the carries. In 13 games last year, J.K. Dobbins rushed for over 47.5 yards nine times. Hampton is Dobbins' replacement and should see a heavy workload in his first NFL game.

NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.

🙌 Omarion Hampton +160

Harris has returned to practice after suffering an eye injury in July, but that shouldn't scare you away from betting on Hampton in this game. The Chargers selected him in the first round to solidify the running back position, and we have no doubt he'll lead the room in touches Week 1. These odds are too good to pass up.

🙌 Hollywood Brown +185

With Rice suspended for the first six games, Brown will receive a significant amount of playing time to start the year. He only played two regular-season games in 2024, but Mahomes showed he trusts the veteran wideout, targeting Brown 15 times combined in those two contests. The Chargers’ cornerback room is arguably the worst unit on their roster, and the team allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers a year ago.

🙌 Will Dissly +425

Let's take a swing. Dissly is entering his second season as the Chargers' starting tight end, and he'll have a favorable matchup Friday night. The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards to the position last year and didn't make any significant changes this offseason to help slow down opposing tight ends in 2025. Tyler Conklin at +700 is also worth considering for a long shot bet, but we'll stick with Dissly in this game.

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