The top three picks of the 2025 NFL Draft appear to be near certainties after analyzing the odds Monday, but one of the biggest questions heading into draft day remains.
Which team will draft Ashton Jeanty?
Jeanty is by all accounts one of the best running back prospects of the last decade, drawing pre-draft comparisons to Saquon Barkley. However, only 14 running backs have been selected in the first round since 2015, and only six of those were picked in the top 10.
The value of running backs has deteriorated over the years. Teams are more focused on spending draft capital at positions with far less injury risk. Quarterbacks, offensive and defensive linemen, wide receivers, and cornerbacks are all considered much more important positions.
But Jeanty could instantly be one of the best running backs in the league as a rookie, and passing up on that type of talent early in the first round can be difficult for some franchises.
The betting odds suggest Jeanty will become the seventh running back drafted in the top 10 since 2015. His draft position over/under is set at 6.5, with the under having -400 odds (80% implied probability).
Odds to draft Jeanty
| Team (Current R1 Pick) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Raiders (6) | -125 |
| Jaguars (5) | +140 |
| Bears (10) | +350 |
| Patriots (4) | +800 |
| Saints (9) | +900 |
| Broncos (20) | +1200 |
| Falcons (15) | +1800 |
| Cowboys (12) | +1800 |
| Panthers (8) | +2000 |
| Jets (7) | +2200 |
The Raiders hold the sixth pick and are the -125 favorites to take Jeanty at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. The betting market believes he'll end up in Las Vegas, and it makes sense. The franchise is in a transitional stage after bringing in Pete Carroll and trading for former Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, and it has a solid defense. Adding an explosive offensive weapon could be the boost the Raiders need.
The Jaguars are the second favorites at +140 and are slotted to pick fifth Thursday, but they have holes all over their roster that need filling before tackling the running back position.
The Bears are an interesting option at +350. Chicago holds the 10th pick but is an ideal landing spot for the former Boise State back. The Bears' new head coach, Ben Johnson, turned the Lions' offense into a juggernaut over the past few seasons. Adding Jeanty to a young offense run by Caleb Williams and featuring Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore would be dangerous.
Some longshot options could take Jeanty early or trade up to get in front of the Raiders and draft the class' top running back. The Patriots hold the fourth pick and are expected to take offensive tackle Will Campbell, but they could pivot to Jeanty or trade back to a team eager to draft him.
There have been rumblings that the Broncos are interested in trading up in the first round, likely to land an offensive skill position player. Jeanty would make a lot of sense and is a talent some teams might view as trade-up-worthy.
Jeanty's landing spot is one of the most intriguing in the entire draft, especially for fantasy football players. It's rare for there to be so much uncertainty around one of the draft class's best players. Whoever selects Jeanty will be getting an elite talent.
