The first couple days of NFL free agency got off to a hot start, with big-name signings and trades throughout the league.
Offseason additions that fix immediate needs bolster a roster for a team's upcoming season, but how many of those additions truly impact a team's chances of winning? Based on betting odds, only a few teams have improved their chances enough to warrant a shift in the market.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are perceived to be the biggest winners so far, but that may be partly due to speculation at the quarterback position. Justin Fields signed with the New York Jets, and the Steelers don't appear likely to run it back with Russell Wilson. This leaves the door open for a potential signing of Aaron Rodgers, who showed life toward the end of last season.
Pittsburgh traded for DK Metcalf to create a dangerous wide receiver duo with George Pickens, and the team seems to always have a strong defense centered around T.J. Watt. Perhaps Rodgers - in one last hurrah - is the missing piece.
The Steelers moved from +6000 to win the Super Bowl at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet down to +5000. It's not the most significant shift, but it was the largest of any team. They also shortened from +3000 to +2000 to win the AFC and +750 to +550 to win the AFC North. Pittsburgh's odds could shorten further if Rodgers - or another veteran quarterback who's perceived to be better than Wilson - ends up in black and yellow.
The Chicago Bears' odds also shortened due to their offseason spending spree. Chicago added pieces to strengthen both the offensive and defensive lines. The acquisitions of guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and center Drew Dalman can only help Caleb Williams' chances of succeeding in his second year.
The Bears went from +4000 to +3500 to win the Super Bowl, shifted slightly from +2000 to +1800 to win the NFC, and from +600 to +400 to dethrone the Detroit Lions for NFC North supremacy.
Super Bowl odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chiefs | +600 |
| Eagles | +600 |
| Ravens | +650 |
| Bills | +700 |
| Lions | +850 |
| 49ers | +1300 |
| Bengals | +1600 |
| Commanders | +1600 |
| Packers | +1800 |
| Rams | +2000 |
| Chargers | +2200 |
| Texans | +2500 |
| Buccaneers | +3000 |
| Bears | +3500 |
| Vikings | +3500 |
| Broncos | +4000 |
| Cardinals | +5000 |
| Cowboys | +5000 |
| Dolphins | +5000 |
| Steelers | +5000 |
| Falcons | +6000 |
| Seahawks | +6000 |
| Patriots | +7500 |
| Panthers | +10000 |
| Browns | +10000 |
| Colts | +10000 |
| Raiders | +10000 |
| Saints | +10000 |
| Jaguars | +15000 |
| Jets | +15000 |
| Giants | +20000 |
| Titans | +20000 |
The Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, and Minnesota Vikings were involved in the quarterback shuffling that occurred.
The Seahawks sent Geno Smith to the Raiders and then signed Sam Darnold, leaving the Vikings with a vacancy at starting quarterback that J.J. McCarthy is expected to fill.
Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl lengthened from +5000 to +6000, while Las Vegas' odds improved slightly from +15000 to +10000. The Raiders' shift may look large, but their implied probability only increased by 0.3% with the addition of Smith.
The Vikings' odds of winning the championship moved slightly from +3000 to +3500. Their odds of winning the division and conference also got worse, going from +475 to +550 to win the NFC North and moving from +1300 to +2000 to claim the NFC with the betting market hesitant to back McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season with an injury.
There's still plenty of time for more odds changes between now and Week 1 of the 2025 season, with the NFL draft the next big event that can stir the pot. But for now, there aren't many teams that have made many additions the betting market has respected outside of the Bears and Steelers.
