| Spread splits | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 60.1% | 56.8% |
| Rams | 39.9% | 43.2% |
Splits via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet
This game was relocated to Arizona due to the wildfires near Los Angeles. Now that it'll be a neutral-site game, the spread moved 1.5 points in the Vikings' favor, proving what home-field advantage is worth in today's league.
Despite their impressive 14-3 record, the Vikings left a bad taste in people's mouths after the Lions dismantled them in prime time. Sam Darnold didn't look good, throwing for only 166 yards on 41 attempts. The Lions generated a ton of pressure, which knocked Darnold out of rhythm and made Minnesota's offense look dysfunctional.
Luckily for Darnold, the Rams don't generate much pressure. They're in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate (21.4%), blitz rate (23.1%), and sacks (38). Despite being sacked three times in the Vikings' first meeting with the Rams, which L.A. won 30-20, Minnesota should be able to make the necessary adjustments to keep Darnold upright and allow him to distribute to his elite playmakers.
Although the Rams are one of two teams to beat the Vikings this season, Minnesota is still one of the best teams in the NFL. The Vikings have a top-10 offense and defense based on points scored and allowed per game, while both Rams units rank outside the top 15.
Minnesota ranks seventh in DVOA - ahead of the Chiefs - while the Rams are 17th. DVOA isn't an end-all, be-all statistic, but it does a quality job of ranking teams, and there's a substantial gap between these two.
Had Minnesota played marginally better last week, the Vikings would be favored by more than a field goal. Take the recency-bias value and trust the better team.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
