More in this series
- Breakouts to target (Updated)
- Sleepers to steal (Updated)
- Super-deep sleepers (Updated)
- 7 players who will lead you to a title (Updated)
To save you the frustration that comes with a disappointing fantasy pick, here's an updated list of players I'm avoiding at their current average draft positions.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
Lawrence signed a huge new contract this offseason that ties him with Joe Burrow and Jordan Love as the NFL's highest-paid player.
While you could argue the 24-year-old is still improving and has yet to reach his ceiling as a pro, his fantasy results have left a lot to be desired. As a former No. 1 pick, Lawrence has name value that's boosted his fantasy price tag more than his production has justified.
He finished as the QB17 last season, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game. In fact, we haven't seen him top 18 fppg in any of his three NFL campaigns.
The additions of first-round wideout Brian Thomas Jr. and free-agent Gabe Davis should help, but they're also just replacing departing veterans Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones.
With so many strong fantasy QBs available, it's hard to project Lawrence carving out a spot among the top 12 this season. His outlook is much closer to the large group of fantasy QB2s, which features the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, and more.
Other bust QB candidates:
- Justin Herbert, Chargers - Herbert is one of the better passers in the NFL, but this offseason has been disastrous for his fantasy projection. He's gone from having one of the league's best receiver duos in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to a young and unproven collection of wideouts. To make matters worse, new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have a history of fielding run-heavy attacks. Herbert is also week-to-week with a plantar fascia injury, which could impact his rushing ability when he returns. With less talent around him, less volume through the air, and uncertainty around his foot issue, Herbert is someone to stay away from in 2024.
- Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins - Here's why we look at fppg and not a player's year-end total: Tua finished as the fantasy QB9 last season, but that worked out to just QB19 numbers on a per-game basis. Even with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in his arsenal, Tua wasn't a fantasy difference-maker most weeks. And that was in a year when he led the league in passing yards and was tied for fifth in passing touchdowns. Pocket QBs who don't offer much with their legs have a very hard time posting huge fantasy seasons, and Tua is no different. Aside from a few spiked weeks, you won't want him as your fantasy starter.
Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings
It's easy to root for Jones, who has an incredibly likable personality and is, by all accounts, a great teammate. Seeing him succeed with a divisional rival after the Packers let him go this offseason would be an outstanding story.
However, the reality is that he's turning 30 later this year and missed six games last season due to hamstring and knee issues.
Given his age and history, questions about his durability moving forward seem warranted.
The Vikings also have plenty of playmakers in their offense, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and eventually T.J. Hockenson when he returns from his ACL tear. Whether it's rookie J.J. McCarthy or journeyman Sam Darnold getting starts, those are a lot of fantasy weapons to support for a non-elite QB.
Perhaps the biggest challenge to Jones will come in the form of Ty Chandler, whom I highlighted in my Sleepers column. Coaches and teammates have spoken highly of Chandler, even suggesting the team has two No. 1 backs.
Jones could share more touches with Chandler than many expect, limiting his fantasy ceiling. And if injuries strike again, Chandler could ultimately be the more valuable fantasy option in 2024.
Other bust RB candidates:
- Derrick Henry, Ravens - Henry has continued to avoid the age cliff and is now part of a successful Ravens rushing attack. However, the 6-2, 247-pound runner is on the wrong side of 30. According to an age-related study by Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points, running backs in their ninth NFL campaign average around 62% of their career baseline fantasy production. Baltimore also has several questions on its offensive line, which is no longer a strength. It's scary to pass on Henry, but he'll eventually slow down - unless he's just a superhero in disguise.
- Tony Pollard, Titans - Pollard signed a three-year, $21.75-million contract to join Tennessee this offseason, but despite the investment, the team hasn't treated him like a true lead back. Tyjae Spears shined as a rookie for the Titans and is being talked up as part of a committee with Pollard, with coaches referring to the two backs as interchangeable. If the 27-year-old Pollard can't recapture the success from his early days in Dallas, Spears may turn this into a 50-50 split or even overtake Pollard.
- Austin Ekeler, Commanders - Fantasy managers need to realize Brian Robinson is the starting back in Washington and Ekeler was brought in to be the complementary piece. Coaches have even gone out of their way to highlight Robinson's improvement in the passing game, which could further hinder Ekeler's involvement. At 29 years old, Ekeler's career is on the downturn, and it's difficult to see a path toward impactful fantasy stats since Chris Rodriguez Jr. would likely get work if Robinson were to miss time.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts
Pittman has one of the more head-scratching ADPs of the early fantasy draft season, going off the board in the third round on Underdog.
Part of it can be attributed to receivers being steamed up in that format, but it also comes on the heels of Pittman catching 109 balls last season (fifth-most in the NFL) and finishing as the WR19 in fppg.
The excitement around the Colts' offense is high with the return of a healthy Anthony Richardson to Shane Steichen's high-volume attack. However, Pittman will have a lot more competition for touches in 2024.
Running back Jonathan Taylor, who missed the start of last season, is at full strength. Sophomore slot receiver Josh Downs has a year of experience in the system and is standing out in practice. Second-round rookie wideout Adonai Mitchell gives the team a big-play threat on the outside. The team also likes to deploy a tight end by committee approach, led by Jelani Woods and Kylen Granson this year.
Pittman benefited from a weaker supporting cast and backup Gardner Minshew leaning on him in 2023. Richardson is a more dynamic dual-threat quarterback who still needs to prove himself as a passer.
The environment that led to Pittman's career year has changed, making him an overpriced fantasy pick at his current ADP.
Other bust WR candidates:
- Stefon Diggs, Texans - Diggs' stats tapered off down the stretch during his last two seasons in Buffalo, making you wonder if the veteran wideout is fading as he nears his age-31 campaign. He was the WR4 in fppg over the first eight contests last year before posting WR52 numbers over the final eight outings. Now he heads to Houston where he'll have much stronger target competition in the form of Nico Collins and Tank Dell. There's a real possibility that Diggs is the third-best fantasy receiver on his team.
- Keenan Allen, Bears - The 32-year-old Allen is another star wideout who's changing teams at a later stage of his career. Allen has been a top-12 fantasy receiver each of the past two seasons, including averaging the third-most fppg in 2023. However, he's also joining a club with two talented younger pass-catchers in DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Even if Caleb Williams can support multiple fantasy assets, Allen will likely see his production dip. The veteran won't come anywhere near his league-leading 11.5 targets per game from a year ago.
- DeAndre Hopkins, Titans - The 32-year-old wideout appeared to have something left in the tank last season, and the shift to a new pass-friendly offense could make you overlook the general risk that comes with drafting a receiver his age. But a knee injury is expected to keep him out four-to-six weeks and might cause him to miss games. It's also concerning to draft an older player entering the season already dinged up. While his ADP is likely to fall in the coming weeks, it'll be hard to click his name in drafts at this point.
Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars
Engram is a quality fantasy tight end, but if you're expecting to see him pick up where he left off last season, you'll be disappointed.
Like most non-elite tight ends, Engram's biggest performances came when injuries hit the receiving corps.
When Christian Kirk was healthy over the first 12 weeks of the season, Engram averaged just under 48 receiving yards per game and was the TE14 (7.5 fppg).
However, following Kirk's injury, Engram was the highest-scoring fantasy tight end for the rest of the regular season, averaging 15.2 fppg.
With Kirk back to full strength and the arrivals of rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, Engram's dream scenario is about to come to an end. He's still a decent low-end TE1 target for fantasy, just don't be tempted by last year's late-season flurry.
Other bust TE candidates:
- Dallas Goedert, Eagles - Goedert is a well-known name in the fantasy world after managers waited on his breakout for a couple seasons while he was stuck behind Zach Ertz. Unfortunately for him, the Eagles have since improved their receiving corps and now boast one of the NFL's most dangerous tandems in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The result last year was a TE13 finish for Goedert. Now, Philly has added Saquon Barkley to the mix, further reducing the odds of Goedert being a strong fantasy starter.
- Dalton Schultz, Texans - Investing in the Texans' passing attack seems like a smart idea with C.J. Stroud already asserting himself as one of the league's better passers. Schultz chose to stick around and signed a new deal with Houston this offseason. But his only real fantasy impact last season came when either Nico Collins or Tank Dell was injured. With both players expected to be healthy and Stefon Diggs entering the offense, Schultz has far too many hurdles between him and fantasy relevance.
More in this series
- Breakouts to target (Updated)
- Sleepers to steal (Updated)
- Super-deep sleepers (Updated)
- 7 players who will lead you to a title (Updated)
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