MNF best bets: Buying low on Giants stock against Seahawks
After doubleheaders in both Week 2 and Week 3, Monday Night Football is back to giving one game the spotlight. However, like Sunday's prime-time showdown, we're back at MetLife Stadium for the third forced standalone viewing of the Giants already. This time, the Seahawks get the chance to turn the whole crowd against the home team but are only the slightest of favorites to do so.
Last week, Seattle closed as 4.5-point favorites at home against the Panthers, who might be the worst team in the NFL. The Seahawks had their hands full for three quarters in that contest. Now, they've moved out to 1.5-point favorites on the road. A home-field advantage flip of two points for Seattle and at least one point for New York (with extra rest) should account for that. This means the market thinks just as poorly of the Giants as it does Carolina. Even without Saquon Barkley, there's no way I can support that rating for New York.
In their first three games, the Giants got housed by the Cowboys and 49ers. Both excusable. Their offense looked capable in the second half against the Cardinals, and if we've learned anything from the first month of the season, it's to avoid overreacting when a team faces the upper echelon of the league or when it finds success against bad units. This is likely the worst defense the Giants have faced. You could make the case that New York might have been a slight favorite in this matchup if it didn't already have these tougher data points on tape.
Pick: Giants (+1.5)
Matt Breida: Under 48.5 rushing yards
The Giants barely tried to run the ball in their first game without Barkley, with just four carries to nominal starting tailback Matt Breida. It'd be a mistake to change the game plan just because Daniel Jones had such little time to throw in San Francisco. The Seahawks made a point of fixing their run defense by overhauling their front seven in the offseason, and through three weeks, it's worked. Seattle's given up just 2.9 yards per carry so far this season.
Unfortunately, only four teams have allowed more yards per pass attempt than Seattle. The Giants should stick with their plan to let Jones sling it. The betting market thinks that's the plan, as Jones' passing yardage total of 231.5 is well above his usual over/under line.
Jake Bobo: Anytime touchdown (+600)
Wan'Dale Robinson: Anytime touchdown (+500)
Let's get a little spicy with our anytime touchdowns for MNF. After all, Giants touchdowns can be few and far between, while the Seahawks have too many short-priced scorers to pick with any certainty.
A mic'd-up-style video from the Seahawks' game last week showed Geno Smith telling rookie receiver Bobo that he had repeatedly been seeing him beat his coverage. Smith hadn't found him until he threw one up to the 6-foot-4 target in the back of the end zone, where the former UCLA star hauled in a pass and got his feet down in time for his first career score. Bobo's snaps have risen from 12 to 17 to 31, so look for him to get a red-zone target.
Let's split a half-unit there and the other half on Robinson, who made his season debut in San Francisco. Of his 11 snaps, he was targeted five times. There's plenty of room for a shifty weapon to get usage on New York's offense, and with some extra time to prepare, a red-zone play for Robinson may be in the cards.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.