Things got weird in New Orleans in 2021. It started with a "home" blowout win over the Packers in Jacksonville, and it ended with a makeshift quarterback situation, with Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, and Ian Book all getting more snaps than Sean Payton would have hoped for after a good start to the season by Jameis Winston.
Speaking of Payton, he will be in a television studio on Sundays this season. Seeking continuity, the Saints tagged defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as the new boss. The market doesn't quite know what to make of the Saints after the era of Payton and Drew Brees, but their championship chances aren't considered great.
2022 season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.0 (-135/+115) |
| Division | +380 |
| Conference | +2200 |
| Super Bowl | +5000 |
The Saints are lumped into the middle of the NFL where teams are lined at, or around, 8.5 wins. With the juice shaded to the over 8 wins, you could likely find an 8.5 juiced to the under if you don't think much of this team that's desperately staving off transition.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ATL | -4.5 |
| 2 | TB | +4 |
| 3 | @CAR | +1 |
| 4 | MIN | +1 |
| 5 | SEA | -6 |
| 6 | CIN | +1 |
| 7 | @ARZ | +3 |
| 8 | LV | PK |
| 9 | BAL | +1 |
| 10 | @PIT | +1.5 |
| 11 | LAR | +3 |
| 12 | @SF | +4 |
| 13 | @TB | +6.5 |
| 15 | ATL | -7 |
| 16 | @CLE | N/A |
| 17 | @PHI | +3 |
| 18 | CAR | -3 |
The number of pick'em games on the Saints' schedule shouldn't surprise, but what I prefer to look at are the games where there is a notable favorite. The first two games of the season exemplify how I'm considering playing the Saints this season. Taking the Falcons getting points in Week 1 is just as enticing as taking the points with the Saints when they themselves are home underdogs in Week 2.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
Even with a makeshift offense, and Brees' questionable arm strength toward the end of his career, the Saints have always been able to rely on their dominant offensive line. That's been retooled this offseason with a first-round pick spent on left tackle, Trevor Penning.
For all the maligning of Winston in previous stops, the Saints were 5-2 in games he started, and he threw 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions before blowing out his knee in a win against the Buccaneers. That all came without Michael Thomas, who the Saints plan to have back in the fold, in addition to their top draft pick - Chris Olave. Throw in free agent Jarvis Landry and the always-dangerous Alvin Kamara, what's not to like about the Saints' offense?
Weaknesses
The short answer is that Kamara is reportedly facing a six-game suspension, and any general reliance on Thomas's return - particularly for a full season - is beyond optimistic. While there's no reason to believe Olave isn't going to be a star, rookie wide receivers are notoriously unpredictable. Hopes are high for Penning to step in seemlessly, but what if that doesn't go as planned?
Opportunities
The Saints would be forced to rely on their defense - which might actually provide more betting opportunities since New Orleans' defense doesn't get the credit they deserve. Their 3.7 rushing yards allowed per attempt was tops in the league last season, while the pass defense was middle of the road. However, that was due to numerous injuries throughout the season affecting the pass rush and secondary.
Allen provides continuity in calling the defense, with Pete Carmichael continuing his work on offense.
Threats
The Saints could be left with a heavier reliance on Winston if things go wrong. With Payton no longer in his ear, his turnover woes could come back, and the defense might be put in tough positions.
How to bet the Saints
Their magic voodoo spell over the Bucs might go away, but if they can continue to vex Tom Brady, there's no reason to think the Saints can't win the division with a split with Tampa.
With an understatedly deep roster, those toss-up games - especially early in the season against Carolina and Minnesota - will be good chances to bet on New Orleans. Especially if the underdog covers in the Saints' first two games.
For individual awards, there are too many individuals to credit. If the Saints win the division (+380), is it because of Allen (Coach of the Year +3000), Winston (Comeback Player of the Year +550), Thomas, or Kamara?
Newly acquired Tyrann Mathieu has the shortest odds on the team for Defensive Player of the Year, but if I bet one, I'd try Marcus Davenport (+6500). He had nine sacks in just 11 games last season, and the fifth-year lineman might spark some interest with a big season if he can play all 17 games.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
