NFL Week 13 best bets: Ravens to keep rolling vs. slumping Steelers
We ended a brief tailspin with a 2-1 record a week ago, and we're feeling great about the value on the board for Week 13. Here are our best bets:
Quarterback health looms over this matchup for both sides, which is the cherry on top of what already profiled as a savvy under play.
The Cardinals still don't know for sure whether they'll be without Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring), who are both game-time decisions Sunday. Even if they do play, neither is likely to be 100% and faces a Bears defense that has held their last two opponents to a combined 30 points since a Week 10 bye.
Andy Dalton will get the nod at QB for Chicago in place of injured starter Justin Fields (ribs), which is good news for under bettors. The Bears are averaging 16.7 points in Dalton's three starts, contributing to their stellar 8-3 record to the under. Arizona has quietly boasted top-five marks on defense and should make life difficult on this inept Chicago attack.
Pick: Under 42.5
This is a quintessential trap spot for the favorites in a contest between two teams that seem allergic to a blowout.
Start with the Vikings, who haven't won a game by more than seven points since Week 3 despite leading by a touchdown at some point in all but one matchup this season. Now they're tasked with burying the pesky Lions without star rusher Dalvin Cook, who will miss Sunday's affair with a dislocated shoulder.
Detroit may be winless, but it won't roll over in this one. The Lions have been outscored by a combined five points in three games since a bye week behind a renewed effort from their defense, which is allowing 12 points per contest over that stretch. Expect a bit of a rock fight in this one, even if the Vikings ultimately prevail.
Pick: Lions +7.5
It took the market months to finally acknowledge that, indeed, the Steelers are not a good football team. We saw it last week in an embarrassing 41-10 loss to the Bengals, which came just two weeks after this group played to a tie against the winless Lions. Yikes.
Now they're catching 4.5 points at home for the first time in five years. It's also the first time they've priced as this big of an underdog against the Ravens since 2012, and for good reason. Pittsburgh ranks among the 10 worst teams in DVOA and PFF grades and is in the bottom five in net yards per play (minus-0.84).
Baltimore's offense has sputtered in recent weeks behind injures and poor conditions, but it should have little issue slicing through an underwhelming Steelers defense that will likely be without two-time All-Pro T.J. Watt, who is in the league's COVID-19 protocol. This one could get ugly in a hurry.
Pick: Ravens -4.5