We're into the middle-third of the NFL season and shifting our approach to looking at line moves. We'll go from comparing where the lines were before the season started and instead solely look at the point spread changes from when they reopened Sunday night to where it moved Thursday afternoon.
Why is Thursday important? Because sportsbooks' limits, as DJ Khaled might say, go UP! And they stay there ... and they stay there. That allows bigger bets to be made and thus a potential move in the line.
Titans @ Colts (-2, 51)
Why not start with some self-congratulation? We predicted this line move in Tuesday's teaser column, and now you can tease up the Titans because this line jumped the fence. It opened Titans -1.5, and now the Colts have been bet to favoritism. An injury hasn't caused this big move. It's just sharp money liking the Colts more at home than the Titans coming off a pair of prominent wins.
49ers @ Bears (+4, 39.5)
An injury caused a move in this game. News of Khalil Mack's foot injury threatens the Bears as they get closer to a dreaded cluster injury situation on defense. However, if Chicago gets Akiem Hicks back, I'll happily take the extra half-point as this moved from +3.5 to +4.
Panthers @ Falcons (-3, 46.5)
For the second straight week, the Falcons have taken early-week money to see the line creep up toward -3. In this case, we may be headed through the key number. That's the only thing keeping me from betting the Panthers right now - the chance that +3.5, or at least +3 (+100), is available.
Steelers @ Browns (-3.5, 42.5)
Bookmakers opened this at Cleveland -3, and I was one of the many to grab the Browns at that number. It quickly moved to -3.5 early in the week. I have the spread a shade higher than Browns -6, so there's still some room to make a bet here. Seattle's second game with Geno Smith only makes the Steelers' win last week look less impressive when we think of Smith's first contest.
Eagles @ Lions (+3.5, 48)
The Eagles see the same move off of -3, without much in the way of news. The key number is definitely interesting with a Lions team that inherently feels like they could win this game. But then you'd be betting on Detroit, which will bring you to tears. Just ask the team's head coach.
Dolphins @ Bills (-14, 49)
These big spreads that keep going up during the week are becoming a disturbing trend for those of us who are underdog bettors first. That'll happen when teams are covering 18-point spreads, and double-digit dogs are refusing to lose. However, I agree with this move going from -13.5 to -14 as the Bills take great pleasure in blowing out the Dolphins in the Sean McDermott era.
Bengals @ Jets (+10.5, 43)
This shifted up a half-point this week, but the real interest is the massive move from last week's lookahead line. The Bengals were -3.5 until they crashed through the wall in Baltimore like the Kool-Aid Man. Now they're all of a sudden an AFC contender, while the Jets are forced to turn to Mike White on Sunday. Is seven points, across multiple key numbers, an appropriate reaction? I doubt it, but that means putting money on the Jets, and that's never comfortable.
Patriots @ Chargers (-4.5, 49.5)
Buccaneers @ Saints (+4.5, 50)
Here's a pair of games with similar moves that are telling. It doesn't appear to be in the cards if you were waiting on the +6 for New England or New Orleans, as 5.5s turned to 4.5s on Thursday. No significant injuries motivate the move, so it appears sharp money likes both underdogs.
Cowboys @ Vikings (-2.5, 50)
This line moved following reports that Dak Prescott might not play Sunday due to a calf strain. This opened at a soft Dallas -3, and there will be no shortage of Cowboys money. But it's only going to get higher if Prescott isn't under center. So you need to ask yourself, do you think he plays? Because +2.5 is worth a bet now. But if he does suit up, you can play back on the Vikings when the line pops back near its original place.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
