NFL Week 2 player props: Who will make the adjustments?
If you bet a bunch of overs on player props in Week 1, you went into the new season rooting for human achievement. The problem? The collective humanity of NFL defenses was often more impressive, littering accounts with dead tickets on player-prop overs.
Let's dive in and take a more discerning approach heading into this Sunday as we seek out the best value plays.
Allen Robinson over 72.5 receiving yards
Brandin Cooks under 61.5 receiving yards
Now that there's game tape on Houston, the Browns can plainly see that Cooks is the only Texans skill-position player who can cause them issues. They'll lock him up and force anyone else to beat them.
Josh Allen interception: Yes +105
The Dolphins' defense is the new-age version of a quality unit. Rather than smothering the opposition, they find ways to create turnovers.
Last week, Miami managed to secure two critical fumbles. This week, the Dolphins will get their hands on a pass from Josh Allen, whose tendency to be inaccurate surfaced again in Week 1.
James Robinson under 39.5 rushing yards
If Urban Meyer made rational coaching decisions, Robinson would have been given more than five carries against the Texans. However, for reasons known only to Meyer, Carlos Hyde received the majority of the carries in Week 1.
Robinson will get buried again in Week 2 either because of Meyer's decision-making, or the game script impacting the Jaguars' run-pass ratio.
Jonathan Taylor over 60.5 rushing yards
That should be Plan A for Indy as they turn to their workhorse to avoid going 0-2, making me comfortable taking the over here.
Derek Carr under 270.5 passing yards
Accuracy was Carr's problem on Monday for one half. Then the Ravens started to blitz more, only to find out that Carr's best skill is reading a blitz, throwing balls into spaces, and giving his pass-catchers opportunities to make plays.
The Steelers play defense differently. They'll rely on pressure from their front four, including T.J. Watt, while dropping the rest into coverage. Carr will struggle, but the Steelers won't pull away enough to force Las Vegas to abandon the run during the second half.
Corey Davis Under 53.5 receiving yards
Bill Belichick makes opposing offenses play left-handed. The Patriots will take away Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson's best weapon in Davis, who burned the Pats three years ago in the playoffs for a pair of touchdowns. So "the Hoodie" is familiar with Davis' work.
Jameis Winston over 236.5 passing yards
Winston wowed with his five touchdown passes last week, but he was a low-volume passer.
This week, whether due to added confidence or a more competitive game, Winston will surpass his total simply because he'll need to attempt more throws.
Kyle Pitts over 47.5 receiving yards
I'm going back to our guy Pitts here. Taking the over with him didn't go so great last week. I may be stubborn, but talent should win out eventually.
We'll try to salvage a split across the first two weeks of taking the over on the Falcons rookie.
Arizona Cardinals over 2.5 sacks
Chandler Jones notched five sacks last week, and he now faces a much easier matchup against the struggling Rashod Hill, with Christian Darrisaw still recovering from offseason surgery. Either Jones will get to Cousins, or Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will scheme up successful blitzes, so give me the over.
Mike Williams anytime TD +140
We hit our lone touchdown prop last week with Thielen. In Week 2 we'll take a shot with the big-bodied Williams, who gets a plus-matchup because the Cowboys' Trevon Diggs will likely square off with Keenan Allen.
The Chargers' red-zone offense was a big issue in Week 1, so Williams should get a few more looks as the Bolts' largest outside threat.
Ryan Tannehill over 259.5 passing yards
I expect this game to look somewhat like the men's 4x100 relay in Tokyo this past summer. Tannehill and Russell Wilson will trade haymakers, and while we could just as easily back the Seahawks quarterback, I'll take Tannehill to surpass the lower total, as there's a higher probability his team will be trailing late.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.
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