Falcons-Panthers betting trends and player props
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The Panthers (-2.5) and Falcons will face off for the second time in four weeks in a rematch of Carolina's 23-16 win as a short road underdog. Can Atlanta pull off that same feat this time around?
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Thursday night.
Betting trends
The Panthers have been red-hot as underdogs, winning four straight against the spread in that spot this season. It's been a different story as favorites, though: Carolina has lost three straight ATS in a chalk spot and is 3-8 ATS since Week 11 of 2018.
The Falcons have been so-so as underdogs, but they've covered six of their last seven road games and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Panthers. But last week's embarrassing loss could take a toll this week. The Falcons are 8-14-1 ATS following a loss since 2018, and they're a startling 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after losing a game they'd led at halftime.
When these two teams face off, expect a low-scoring affair. The under is a stellar 12-3 in their last 15 matchups, averaging a combined 43.2 points per game. The Falcons have gone under in three of their last four games, while the Panthers have done so in three of their last five.
Player props
D.J. Moore over 69.5 receiving yards (-110)
In case you missed it, Atlanta's defense is really bad. The unit's allowed 1,561 yards to opposing receivers this campaign, second-most in the NFL, including standout performances from Kenny Golladay (114 yards) and Marvin Jones (80) a week ago.
Moore, comparatively, is quite good. He logged exactly 93 yards in three straight games, a streak that started against the Falcons in Week 5. Atlanta's secondary has only gotten thinner since then, making this one of the easiest bets on the board.
Matt Ryan under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+164)
Ryan has not been effective at generating points this year despite leading the league in passing yards through seven weeks. His touchdown rate (4.2%) is identical to last year's and just a tick below his career mark (4.7%), yet he's thrown for one touchdown or less in four of his last five - including zero against the Panthers earlier this year.
Carolina's pass defense has been a pleasant surprise this season, allowing just nine passing scores through seven games. At this value, it's an easy play to expect another stout performance on Thursday.
Best bet
Panthers -2.5
It's time to stop buying this Falcons team as if it's still the 2016 iteration. This squad's offense has been good at eating up chunk yardage but ineffective at converting when it counts, and the defense is particularly vulnerable to an aggressive passing attack like the Panthers'. This is a perfect spot to fade Atlanta - especially coming off a short week following a fourth-quarter collapse.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.