Chargers 2020 player props: Hunter Henry's breakout season is here
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Not many NFL teams have a bigger range of possible outcomes in 2020 than the Los Angeles Chargers do.
The Chargers are always tough to trust. You pencil Los Angeles in whenever you need a sleeper in the AFC, only to watch the team stumble to a 9-7 record thanks to an underachieving offense and injury-riddled defense.
Perhaps a change under center is what this team needs.
Quarterback Philip Rivers moved on in free agency following 16 seasons with the franchise, opening the door for either veteran Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert to lead the way. It makes for an intriguing handicap on 2020 player props, which we'll dive into today.
Here's the one prop that sticks out:
Hunter Henry - O/U 630.5 receiving yards
Over: -115
Under: -115
Entering his fifth year as a pro, Henry has yet to play a full season. He missed the entire 2018 campaign, and the 15 games he appeared in as a rookie still represent a career high.
Though Henry is a solid contributor when healthy, he's repeatedly left much to be desired over the course of an entire season.
However, he posted career highs in catches (55) and yards (662) in 2019 despite missing another four games. Those numbers extrapolated over 16 contests would have come to around 73 catches and just shy of 900 yards.
We can't predict injuries, so we have to bank on the upside, and Henry certainly has a ton of it.
During last year's 12-game stint, Henry finished No. 1 among tight ends in target quality rating (which emphasizes deeper passes and discounts shorter ones), fifth in completed air yards, and No. 6 in red-zone receptions.
If Taylor gets the nod, it's a home run for Henry.
Taylor's chemistry with tight end Charles Clay was well-documented. Clay was the Buffalo Bills' leading pass-catcher in 2017 when he accounted for more than 18% of the team's receiving yards with Taylor under center. The veteran quarterback's never put up gaudy stats through the air, but this is the best group he's played with. If the signal-caller flirts with a 4,000-yard campaign, Henry needs to be responsible for only about 15% of the yards. That's doable.
But the tight end's outlook is still promising even if the Chargers go with Herbert. His security blanket with Oregon last year was tight end Jacob Breeland, who racked up 26 catches, 405 yards, and six touchdowns - which led all Pac-12 tight ends - despite playing in only six games.
The final part of the equation is some balance in the Chargers' offense. Rivers favored slot receiver Keenan Allen, who was top 10 in the NFL in both target share and hog rate during each of the last two seasons. Without that connection, expect the offense to open up for others, including Henry and wide receiver Mike Williams.
No matter who takes snaps for Los Angeles in 2020, Henry is having his breakout.
Pick: Over
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.