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Tom Brady begins a new chapter in his Hall of Fame career after leaving the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His addition has turned the historically futile franchise into one of the Super Bowl favorites (+1500).
Can Brady continue to put up big numbers with his new team, or will his production decline without Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels? We break down his 2020 player props to find out.
|4150.5 (-110)||4150.5 (-110)|
Brady fell 97 yards short of this total in 2019 but has topped it seven times in the last 11 years. Jameis Winston threw for an NFL-best 5,109 passing yards last season as the Bucs' quarterback, but this will be a different team in 2020. The Buccaneers were often playing from behind thanks to Winston's league-leading 30 interceptions. That will change with Brady under center, but it doesn't mean Tampa Bay won't still be a pass-first offense.
This number is right on the money. Brady threw for 4,057 yards last season on a Patriots team that lacked big-play weapons at the skill positions. That won't be a problem in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, and Rob Gronkowski at Brady's disposal. He won't approach the 5,100 yards that Winston put up but will lead one of the NFL's most explosive passing attacks, so look for Brady to go over this total.
|29.5 (-110)||29.5 (-110)|
Brady has failed to reach 30 touchdown passes in three of the last four seasons, but as we already mentioned, this is one of the most talented group of skill position players he's ever had. Evans and Godwin will produce more long touchdowns in the passing game than the below-average receivers Brady played with in New England, while the trio of Buccaneers tight ends present a nightmare matchup for defenses in the red zone.
Only four quarterbacks threw for 30-plus touchdown passes in 2019, so this is a lofty number for the soon-to-be 43-year-old to eclipse. The weapons are there to hit the over but the early lean here is Brady comes up just short.
|9.5 (-110)||9.5 (-110)|
One thing is certain: Brady will throw fewer interceptions than the mistake-prone Winston did last season. As Brady has gotten older, his pick totals have declined. He threw at least 12 interceptions in each of his first six seasons as a starter. However, in Brady's last six seasons, he's topped this number just once with 11 in 2018.
Even with Brady's ability to protect the football, the over looks like the play here. Given all of Tampa Bay's firepower on offense and head coach Bruce Arians' aggressive offensive philosophy, Brady will push the ball down the field more than he did with the Patriots, leading to more interceptions. He won't come close to Winston's total, but Brady will reach double-digit picks for just the third time in the last nine years.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.