Raiders favored to sign Brady if he leaves Patriots; full odds, analysis
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A week after sending football fans into a tizzy with a cryptic tweet, it looks like Tom Brady might re-sign with the Patriots after all.
In January, we went in detail about Brady's future, and the signs since then have pointed the Patriots' way. There was the Super Bowl commercial in which Brady said he's "not going anywhere." There was also the report from NFL Network's Ian Rapoport that said the Patriots are willing to pay "in excess of $30 million per year" to keep Brady with the only franchise he's ever known.
At this point, oddsmakers clearly doubt that Brady will move on: They've priced the Patriots as 1-4 favorites to keep the quarterback and at 5-2 to lose him.
If he does leave, though, where might he go? And which teams are gaining steam in the betting market? Here are the odds for Brady's next landing spot (if not the Patriots) along with analysis of five notable clubs.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3-1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9-1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9-1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 10-1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 14-1 |
| Chicago Bears | 16-1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 16-1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 16-1 |
| Denver Broncos | 18-1 |
| Washington Redskins | 22-1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 25-1 |
| New York Jets | 25-1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 28-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 28-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 28-1 |
| Detroit Lions | 33-1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 33-1 |
| New York Giants | 33-1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 33-1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 33-1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 50-1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 66-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 66-1 |
| Houston Texans | 66-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 100-1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 500-1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 500-1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 500-1 |
Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
Earlier this week, ESPN's Adam Schefter indicated the Raiders are prepared to chase Brady this offseason, even with 28-year-old Derek Carr and his $7.9 million in dead cap still on their books. Stylistically, it could be a strong fit. Head coach Jon Gruden has emphasized short passing in his Raiders stint, and Brady is among the best ever at quick reads on short routes.
But while Brady could fit well in Las Vegas, it may not be among his desired options. In Rapoport's report, he suggested that Brady's chief concern is surrounding himself with weapons - the likes of which don't exist on the current Raiders roster. Don't lay the short price here.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-1)
When Brady's next-team odds were released in January, we immediately hopped on the Chargers bandwagon at 7-1. The franchise is located somewhat near Brady's hometown, it needs a quarterback, and it's desperate to sell tickets for its new stadium.
That's all still true, especially amid rumors that Philip Rivers will move on this summer. But the current price is too short to lay in a crowded field, even if the Chargers are still probably the most likely choice outside of New England.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-1)
We mentioned the Bucs as a value at 9-1 back in early January thanks to their stellar receiving corps and unstable QB situation. Sure enough, Tampa Bay is now 7-1 behind only Las Vegas and Los Angeles to sign Brady this summer. It's still a value in our eyes.
The Jameis Winston experiment is looking more and more like a thing of the past (he's 1-2 to lose his starting gig in 2020), and there may not be a more appealing situation for Brady to walk into from a roster and geography standpoint. Keep your eye on this one.
Carolina Panthers (10-1)
The Panthers opened as the second favorites (6-1) a month ago, and nothing since then has justified the adjustment to 10-1. New coach Matt Rhule has been coy about Cam Newton's future with the team, and owner David Tepper set the tone for immediate results by firing Ron Rivera in December. Nobody knows winning like Brady.
The future Hall of Fame quarterback would be hard-pressed to find a better situation, too. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are crisp route-runners and therefore perfect fits for Brady, while Christian McCaffrey is a supercharged version of the pass-catching backs whom Brady has always loved. Is this likely? Probably not. But it's sure intriguing, especially at a longer price.
Tennessee Titans (10-1)
The Titans weren't on the board in January, but they should have been. Tennessee is essentially creating a "New England South" with its coaching staff, roster construction, and franchise culture. Who better to steer that ship than Mr. Patriot himself?
The biggest obstacle here is Ryan Tannehill, who did enough this past season to merit an investment from the Titans. That alone makes this potential destination hard to recommend at a shorter price than say, 20-1. If there's any smoke about Tannehill walking, though, take these odds without hesitation.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.