Super Bowl betting brings to mind images of all the big Las Vegas sportsbooks, and rightly so, as this city’s wagering outlets are truly something to behold during the big game. But up in the state’s cooler northern climate, plenty of folks are getting down on this matchup too.
Covers checks in on activity and line movement both north and south, with insights from Terry Cox, sportsbook director at the Peppermill in Reno, and Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots – Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4
Tom Brady has top-seeded New England in the Super Bowl for the eighth time in his illustrious career, but he needed a big AFC championship game comeback to get there this year. The Patriots (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) fell behind Jacksonville 14-3 midway through the second quarter and still trailed 20-10 in the fourth quarter. But Brady engineered two scoring drives, both capped by Danny Amendola touchdown catches, as the Pats nabbed a 24-20 victory laying 7.5 points at home.
Top-seeded Philadelphia had a stellar regular season behind the breakout success of second-year QB Carson Wentz. But Wentz tore an ACL in Week 14, so backup Nick Foles – aided greatly by a solid defense – got Philly through the past few weeks. In the NFC championship game, the Eagles (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) put together their most complete game since the Wentz injury, steamrolling Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog.
Much like here in Vegas the past 12 days, there’s no shortage of Philly backers up in Reno.
“The money is about 2/1 on the Eagles, and the number of tickets is 3/2 on the Eagles,” Cox said of pointspread betting at the Peppermill. “And the moneyline has been bet down too, just like everyone else has seen.”
Indeed, along with the 1.5-point drop in the pointspread, the Peppermill has seen the moneyline move from the opener of Patriots -220 all the way down to Patriots -175. Correspondingly, the Eagles have plummeted from +190 to +155.
“So right now, just like last year, we need the Patriots. Here we are again,” Cox said. “I don’t know how to act about needing the Patriots, after 17 weeks of (usually) getting beat by them. But you can’t read a lot into it just yet, because as you know, 80 percent of the volume comes in during the last 30 hours.”
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Back in Vegas at CG books, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, it’s more of the same. Last week, one CG customer made a series of Eagles moneyline bets adding up to $700,000. Even Thursday’s news of Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski being cleared from concussion protocol hasn’t slowed the Eagles cashflow, as late Thursday night, CG took another six-figure Philly moneyline wager.
CG opened the Patriots -6, quickly dropped to -5.5 and spent much of the past week at -4.5, where the line stood on Friday, with the Pats priced at -105. CG also made a big moneyline move, from Patriots -220/Eagles +185 to Pats -180/Eagles +160.
“This has seen significant movement,” Bernanke said. “Pointspread betting is all Eagle money so far. Three times more money on account coming in on Philadelphia, and over the counter seeing about two times more money on Philadelphia as well.
“Moneyline betting is a different dynamic in the Super Bowl than any other game, because people who have never bet all year bet this game. And they want to take the plus money. They want the bigger payout, so they’ll end up taking the moneyline as opposed to the pointspread with Philadelphia. Four times more money on Philadelphia on account. Over the counter has actually kind of evened out a little bit, it’s 55 percent Philadelphia money on the moneyline.”
One thing CG won’t have to worry about this weekend is whether bettors can get to their books around Las Vegas, as the weather is picture perfect, with highs in the 70s. That’s not always the case in Reno, where you could see blizzard conditions this time of year, certainly hampering all that anticipated late action.
“In our neck of the woods, a lot depends on weather,” Cox said. “But it’s clear sailing right through the weekend. Interstate 80 will be open, everybody will be able to get here.”
