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So you think you’ve missed your opportunity to get the best of the numbers on Super Bowl proposition bets? Well, in some cases, you might be right on time. In fact, you might even have time to spare – if you’re willing to look at some of the heavier favorites.
Such a strategy means waiting until the weekend and perhaps until just before Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.
That’s the opinion of a couple of sharp bettors who were out last Thursday night for the grand reveal of more than 400 prop offerings at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. They weren’t necessarily looking to get down early. Rather, they were taking note of the opening odds, then sitting tight while expecting better opportunities to arise as Super Bowl weekend draws closer.
“We’re just looking for variations in where we think these things will move,” said one professional player who frequents several Vegas books. “With pointspread props, me and a buddy of mine make our own prop bet numbers. All the squares are gonna take the juice, and the number will come down. When the books get buried on the other side of a prop, they’ll lower the juice to a point where they overlap a different market.”
That would be the sharp market. For example, the public will really start to roll into Vegas Thursday and Friday. Many of them will see big plus money on the “Yes” option of whether there will be a safety. And they’ll bet it, just like they do every year, hoping for the bigger payout. The plus price will then begin to tick down, and concurrently, the minus price on “No” will drop and therefore become more valuable.
At the Superbook, the prop of whether there will be a safety opened “Yes” +600/”No” -900. It’s far more likely there won’t be a safety, which is why it’s such a hefty favorite. So as the public piles on in the coming days and the price drops, it might become a return-on-investment opportunity to bet on “No”.
“We get the openers, and then we wait,” the pro bettor said. “The big part is to get the opening price, then let the public get in, and then we have decisions to make. Do we buy back on the other side?”
Bryan Leonard, a longtime handicapper here in Vegas, is actually looking at all three safety props at the Superbook – one on the full game, one on the first half, one on the second half. He’s done all sorts of crafty homework in figuring out when or if he’ll wager on any of those options.
“Based on the total of 48 points, true odds for no safety in the entire game should be -1,575. That’s without the juice,” Leonard said. “Right now, you can lay -1,600 on the ‘No’ for a safety in either half. That should be twice as unlikely as the true odds in a whole game.”
Instead, it’s almost identical, while the “Yes” on first or second half is +900 at the Superbook. And to reiterate, the full-game safety prop bet is at “Yes” +600/”No” -900 at the Superbook. Leonard is hoping public bettors will crash in on “Yes” and bring the “No” number to his sweet spot.
“I’m looking to lay -1,300 on the first half,” he said, noting the second half carries more risk. There could be a situation in which a punter runs out of the end zone, or the game goes to overtime, which adds to the chances of something going awry. “If the full-game number is twice as good, at -650, that’s a no-brainer. I’ll bet that. At -1,400 each half, that’s as good as -700 on the full game. Whichever of those two numbers comes up first is the one I’ll bet.”
Granted, it’s not the same as tossing $100 on “Yes” for a possible return of several hundred dollars. But again, it’s about value on the number and the return on investment such value can bring. Winning $100 on a $700 bet represents a 14 percent return, and even adding $100 by winning a $1,400 bet is a worthwhile 7 percent boost. It surely beats tearing up a plus-money ticket on a long shot.
“People want to win a lot for a little on these props,” Leonard said. “I want to come in later and bet a lot to win a little, either the day before or the day of the game. A lot of guys can’t play $1,000 to win $100, but that’s where the value is.”
Leonard understands the attraction of big but unlikely prop payouts from betting “Yes” on the safety or overtime or the 2-point conversion. But if you’ve got the bankroll, it might be best to resist that urge and look to favorites that actually stand a much better chance of cashing by game’s end.
“Anything can happen in a game, but with your whole prop portfolio, you need to have more minuses than pluses,” Leonard said.
