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Just ahead of last week’s reveal of what I like to call “The Great Wall of Proposition Bets,” Jay Kornegay was talking about the incredible growth of these Super Bowl wagering options.
From just a few offerings back in the late 1980s and early ‘90s to now a 30-page packet at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, prop bets have become as much a part of Big Game betting as the pointspread and the total.
Or even more.
“Sixty percent of the betting on the game is on the props,” Kornegay tells Covers, noting he considers betting on the game to include wagers on the side, total, moneyline and prop bets. “That percentage keeps going up, as more people get more comfortable betting the props.”
And that’s not just at the Superbook, which Kornegay operates as vice president of race and sports for the Westgate. Sportsbooks all over Vegas have thick packets full of props, and offshore books are loading up their boards as well. Covers checks in on which offerings are drawing the most attention for Sunday’s clash between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.
South Point
Sportsbook director Chris Andrews cut right to the chase when discussing props at his shop on the south end of Las Vegas Boulevard.
“I got four that we really got steamed on,” he says, noting that led to some speedy odds movement. “We move props a little more drastically. We get bet on it, we move the hell out of it!”
For example, Andrews pointed to this prop: Will there be a roughing-the-passer penalty? Yes opened -120, with No at even money, which seemed to make sense. Tom Brady’s ability to draw such a flag probably looks like a good bet to most observers. But by Saturday, a couple days after the props went up, bettors had a clearly different opinion.
“We were at No -240, and +200 on Yes,” Andrews says, noting the line had settled down a bit by Tuesday, but No was still running -215, with Yes at +185.
Andrews also opened total punts at 10.5, with the Over at -120. Now, the total is 9 shaded to the Under at -135.
“I was debating between 10.5 and 11,” he says. “That’s a huge move.”
The other two big ones Andrews mentioned:
• Who will have more gross passing yards? Brady opened a -25.5-yard favorite over the Eagles’ Nick Foles, and the Patriots QB has since blown up to a 45.5-yard chalk.
• How many total completions will Brady have? Andrews opened at 23.5, with the Over -120, and saw it bet up to 27.5 (-110) before a little buyback to 26.5 (-110)
Superbook
Kornegay had three prop bets that stood out: Total receptions for Patriots running back Dion Lewis opened 4.5, with the Under at -125, and the Under is now -180; rushing yards for Eagles running back Corey Clement opened at 6.5 (-110) and was bet up to 10.5 (-110); and the Yes on Foles throwing more than one touchdown pass went from -200 to -240.
“That’s our biggest prop decision currently,” Kornegay says of the Foles TD pass offering. “Most of the props that are receiving attention are getting bet on both sides.”
William Hill U.S.
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill U.S. in Las Vegas, cited a prop of Over/Under on Nick Foles passing yards as a particularly big mover. It opened at 268.5 and dropped to 251.5.
“It’s a hard number to make because there’s not much data,” Bogdanovich says. “He had basically a couple mop-up games at the end of the regular season, then two playoff games that were real. That 350 yards against the Vikings was probably an aberration. We opened a little high, and they bet it down. I’m sure he’s gonna throw the ball plenty of times, but bettors think it’s going under.”
Not that Bogdanovich is overly concerned about those bettors.
“They’re wrong on these as much as they’re right,” he says.
Moving to the other QB in this game, William Hill has an Over/Under prop on Brady rushing attempts that opened 2.5 at a price of -110 on each side, and now the Under is -165.
“That was a big mover. They think he won’t rush the ball three times,” Bogdanovich says, adding he’s not so sure about that. “If Brady kneels down at the end of the game, that might be two or three rushes right there. He’s the best QB sneaker in the history of the game. If they’re in that position, he’ll sneak for sure.
“It’s a crapshoot, and that’s the beauty of this thing. People have their opinions, we have ours, and we’ll see what happens in the end.”
CG Technology
Three prop bets stood out to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, which operates sportsbooks at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, along with several other shops around town.
All three offerings are tied into scoring. First up: Will there be a score in the last two minutes of the second half? No opened -105 and is now at -132.
Second: Will there be a score in the first 3:30 of the first quarter? That’s seen huge movement on the No, which opened -190 and is now at -400.
Finally: Total touchdowns combined by both teams. CG books opened at 5.5, with the Over at -140, and that price is now down to -105, with bettors jumping on the Under.
BetDSI
Super Bowl proposition bets often wander far away from the action on the field, and offshore sportsbooks such as BetDSI recognize that fact. Further, offshore sites have much more latitude on the type of props they can offer, which leads to this gem:
How many times will the word “Dilly” be said during the broadcast? BetDSI set the Over/Under at 12.5, and It’s important to note the phrasing, since generally “Dilly” comes in twos for the popular commercial campaign, as in “Dilly Dilly.” So, seven “Dilly Dilly” drops, and the Over is in – something bettors took so strongly to heart that the prop is now off the board.
“We actually had to pull this prop off the board due to the overwhelming action received on the Over,” says Scott Cooley, odds consultant for BetDSI. “Bettors are assuming we were a bit too light on the total, or something has leaked that we haven't seen, which is possible. We decided to stand pat with the liability we have instead of re-posting with a different number or heavy juice. Here's to hoping we don't hear more than a dozen ‘Dillys’ from the folks at Bud Light on Sunday.”
Will Al Michaels or Cris Collinsworth say “GOAT” (presumably in shorthand reference to Greatest Of All Time)? Yes opened +360 and No -500, and it’s now at +240/-300, so Yes is drawing the bulk of the action.
Who will Rodney Harrison predict to win? Now of course, Harrison was a former standout defensive back for New England. The Patriots opened a -330 favorite, with Philly (or should I say Philly Philly?) +240 on the buyback. It’s now exploded to Pats -550/Eagles +350.
TheGreek.com
Scott Kaminsky, director of this offshore book, said he’s taken a couple eye-catching pops on proposition bets, including on: Will more points be scored in the first quarter, or the third quarter?
“We had sharp action on third quarter -130,” he says. “Now we’re at -150 on the third quarter and +125 on the first quarter.”
Other props getting attention at TheGreek.com:
• Will the last kickoff of the game result in a touchback? Kaminsky says “a smart guy” took No at +115, moving No to even money, with Yes a -130 favorite.
• Will there be a score in the first seven minutes of the game? No opened +105, drew sharp action and moved to -120, with Yes -110 on the buyback.
Nevada and offshore sportsbooks hope the money keeps rolling in on the props as the weekend approaches – provided the books end up on the right side, of course. Bookmakers certainly don’t want to see the big plus-money props hit, such as Yes on a safety or overtime, but props tend to be a good market for the books.
“In general, yes, the props always do well, because it’s the Super Bowl,” Kaminsky said, alluding to heavy volume. “Some years, the props can make or break your Super Bowl.”
