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The line for Super Bowl LII continues to tick downward in this first week of betting for the Feb. 4 big game. Covers checks in on the action with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, director of trading for offshore shop Sportsbook.ag.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Open: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5
Philadelphia has two Super Bowl appearances in its entire team history, both losses, against Oakland to cap the 1980-81 season and against this year’s opponent, New England, to finish the 2004-05 season. The top-seeded Eagles (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) made it to Minneapolis by bashing the Minnesota Vikings 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog in Sunday’s NFC championship game.
Meanwhile, New England has played in 10 Super Bowls, including eight in the Tom Brady era and four since the last time these two teams battled for the Lombardi Trophy. The Patriots (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS), also a No. 1 seed, needed a big comeback in the AFC title game to best Jacksonville 24-20 as a 7.5-point home chalk.
“On the point spread, we’ve taken 2.5 times more bets on the Eagles, and the money is 1.6 times more on the Eagles,” Simbal said Thursday afternoon. “The moneyline is an even bigger spread, which is not surprising, because fewer people want to lay the favorite on the moneyline. So tickets are running four times more on the Eagles. The money is slightly more on the Patriots, but that still means our liability is significantly more on the Eagles, because of the plus price.”
Indeed, CG opened the moneyline at New England -220/Philadelphia +180. CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, are now dealing Patriots -200/Eagles +175 to just win the game outright.
“We’ve got bigger exposure on the moneyline than on the spread,” Simbal said.
Offshore at Sportsbook.ag, Philly is all the rage as well.
“We opened New England a solid 6.5-point favorite, figuring Tom Brady and the Patriots would garner most of the action in their eighth Super Bowl appearance. Boy, were we wrong,” Childs said. “All the early money was on the Eagles and for the most part continues to be on the Eagles.”
Childs said it took about 30 minutes Sunday night to move from 6.5 to 6. The line dropped to 5.5 early Monday morning.
“While we started to see some Patriots money at -5.5, it wasn't nearly enough, as we continued to see more money on the Eagles at that price. On Monday evening, we got to Pats -5, which is our current number. At 5, we're seeing some real nice two-way action, and I believe we'll be holding at 5 for a good while.”
But as with CG books, it’s not just point spread betting drawing concern at Sportsbook.ag. Childs said major moneyline liability is building up on the underdog Eagles.
“We're seeing tons of Eagles money, from the opener of +185 to what we're currently dealing, +170,” Childs said. “We're seeing a good 2/1 ratio of Eagles moneyline, and since all that money is at a plus payout, our liability has gotten a bit out of hand. At this point, I believe we'll go lower on this moneyline as we get closer to game day, but for now, we're going to hold tight at -200/+170.
“One thing we've seen and expect to see more of as we get closer to game day is that, while the amount of tickets is very much in favor of the Eagles, the bigger wagers have been laying the big lumber on the Pats moneyline.”
CG opened the total at 47.5 and is up to 48, with a strong likelihood of going up sooner rather than later.
“Not surprising in the Super Bowl, we’re always needing the under. This year is no different,” Simbal said. “We’ve got five times more bets on the over, and 2.6 times more money on the over.”
Sportsbook.ag also opened 47.5, went to 48 in a matter of minutes Sunday night, then went to 48.5 on Monday. The total was still at 48.5 Thursday afternoon.
“We were hit with all over money on that opener,” Childs said. “So far, 65 percent of the money is on the over, and it's our belief that as we get closer to game day, we're just going to see more and more over money. So we want to be a bit high (with where our total is) on this game.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
