I hate to use the term "overrated" to describe the Minnesota Vikings this season, as the NFL doesn't rank teams like they do in college. But this team wasn't nearly as good as experts thought - and that includes me.
Though the Vikings were blown out by the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, it's easy to see why I and many other analysts bought into their fool's gold.
Minnesota won 13 regular season games and a playoff game and had the NFL's best overall defense, and they did it with their backup quarterback and without their most explosive offensive player in Dalvin Cook.
Mike Zimmer, his coaching staff, and his players squeezed out every ounce of marrow. But the fact is, this team had a lot of weaknesses, and they were exposed by the Eagles.
First, while the Vikings dominated the NFC North, this division may have been the weakest in the NFL. Packers quarterback and perennial superstar Aaron Rodgers was sidelined most of the season. The Bears were starting over with a very young team, including a rookie starting quarterback who had only one year of college experience. And the Lions, who were the closest threat to the Vikings, fired their coach at the end of the season.
Usually, the ol' Black and Blue Division is one of the most competitive. This wasn't one of those seasons.
Secondly, though the Vikings' offensive line was possibly the league's most improved unit, it was vulnerable when playing from behind. Because the Vikings were in the lead, or in a close game, during nearly every contest, this line and quarterback Case Keenum weren't tested for extended periods of time in obvious passing situations.
The Vikings were ahead by at least 16 points during 10 different games. They were very good at playing with the lead. On Sunday, once they were behind and couldn't simply run their basic offense, their weaknesses in pass protection were exposed.
Third, the defense was also exposed when they were behind. The Vikings don't have a complicated defense with a wide variety of blitzes and coverages. They line up in a four-man front and generally play two or three coverages in the backend. Against a veteran quarterback with a group of talented weapons, they can be vulnerable.
Both the Saints and Eagles knew that throwing at Xavier Rhodes on a regular basis was a bad idea, so they attacked the weaker areas of their man to man coverage schemes. Also, Minnesota's pass rush disappeared against Philadelphia and New Orleans. To play in Mike Zimmer's man-to-man scheme, a ferocious pass rush is a necessity. Again, playing with the lead makes this easier.
Getting pressure on the quarterback on first and second down is something that needs to be addressed moving forward for Minnesota from a scheme and personnel standpoint.
Lastly, while Keenum proved this year he's an NFL starter, he also proved he's far from being in the group of top-end starters who can carry their team on their shoulders when it needs them most.
Playing with a two-touchdown lead versus a two-TD deficit will create two vastly different mindsets. Very few quarterbacks, possibly as few as 10 in the NFL, can bring their team back from a significant deficit against another quality football team. Keenum is a game manager who can occasionally become a playmaker, but he's far from the level of quarterback who can consistently carry the full weight of his offense and lead his team to victory.
Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Philip Rivers are the type of QBs that make you feel like their team always has a chance to win, no matter the score. Keenum isn't. I'm not saying he'll never be that guy, but he hasn't yet shown it.
Part of this is because the Vikings were so good this year in the first three quarters that he wasn't thrust into that position very often. I assume the Vikings will want to see if Keenum can bring his game to the next level before giving him huge guaranteed money. Sunday night's game wasn't an encouraging endorsement.
The Vikings are a solid football team, but they have some obvious holes to fill if they want to play in the NFC Championship Game again next year.
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The Eagles have the best roster in the NFL, and Nick Foles is playing like the 2013 version of himself - the one that threw for 27 touchdowns against two interceptions. But Philadelphia will be the underdog in the Super Bowl, and may never get the respect it deserves unless it beats the Patriots.
The Eagles' defensive front has quietly been one of the best in the league all year. It leads the NFL in stopping the run and is extremely disruptive against the pass.
The Vikings' passing attack had its worst game of the season because it was regularly in third-and-long situations and couldn't block the Eagles' front when Keenum dropped back to pass. Those New York Giants teams that won their two most recent Super Bowls had a very similar recipe. The Eagles have guys like Chris Long who would be NFL starters on a lot of teams but are coming off the bench and creating havoc for opposing quarterbacks.
Offensively, the Eagles opened up their playbook against the Vikings and Foles embraced the added responsibility. He was nearly perfect on third downs - the most important down for a quarterback - as the Eagles converted on 10-of-14 opportunities.
Also, though a lot of teams are using RPOs (Run, Pass, Options) in their offenses, the Eagles are executing them better than any other. This helps out their running game, and is forcing defenses to hesitate as they chase the ball.
This didn't happen overnight. It helps that Foles has years of experience running these types of plays, having been the quarterback for Chip Kelly during his first stint in Philadelphia.
Part of a head coach's job is to find what his players do well and capitalize on it. Doug Pederson and Frank Reich aren't getting nearly enough credit for understanding what Foles does well and customizing the offense for their new quarterback. As a former backup quarterback, this is something I noticed during my career.
My coaches who were also former NFL backup QBs, such as Gary Kubiak and Jason Garrett, quickly understood my strengths and weaknesses, then called my plays accordingly. Backup quarterbacks have more limitations, and sometimes it takes one to notice them.
Lastly, the Eagles have done an incredible job of adding offensive weapons, and use a variety of personnel groups to take advantage of these matchups.
They have three starting receivers with different skill sets. They're fast, long, slippery, and run disciplined routes. They play three different tight ends, and I have yet to find a safety or linebacker that can cover Zach Ertz. They use three running backs in a variety of ways. Pederson seems to have plays designed for each offensive skill position player every game.
That creates matchup nightmares for opposing coaches, and if the Vikings couldn't slow down the Eagles' offense, I'm not sure how Matt Patricia and Bill Belichick will game plan for them.
The Eagles are good enough to beat the Patriots at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Their defense is like those that gave Brady trouble in his past Super Bowl losses and their front four will disrupt both the run and pass game, while the offense has too many weapons for Belichick and Patricia to shut down.
New England will be favored to win this matchup, and rightfully so. Betting against Brady and Belichick is rarely a good idea. But Foles and his offense are much more dynamic than Jacksonville's, and if they play like they did against the Vikings, they'll bring the City of Brotherly Love its first Lombardi Trophy.
Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football. Find him on Twitter @SageRosenfels18.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
