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Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now and which total to watch as the week plays out. The Super Bowl matchup is set and the odds are out, but where will the spread and total land in two weeks' time?
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-5.5)
If you buy into the old adage “never bet on a streak to end,” then you have to figure this Super Bowl will be close. The current Kraft/Belichick/Brady iteration of the Patriots will be making its eighth trip to the championship game, and all seven so far (five wins and two losses) have been one-score games – including last year’s overtime victory over Atlanta.
This year, it figures to be tight again, especially if All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski is unable to go due to the concussion he suffered in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. The Jacksonville Jaguars showed that a solid defense can make things sticky for the Patriots, even if they weren’t able to seal the deal due to their limited offense.
Oddsmakers opened the line at New England -5 or -5.5, which allows them plenty of room to maneuver between the key numbers (3 and 7) without exposing them too much. The moneyline at most books is in the Patriots -220 / Eagles +180 range.
The week prior to championship weekend was dominated by speculation about Tom Brady’s injured throwing hand, and bettors will be spending the next two weeks trying to figure out whether Gronkowski will be recovered enough to take the field in Minnesota on Feb. 4. Last year, against Atlanta, the Patriots struggled for nearly three quarters without Gronkowski before finding a way to move the ball.
The Eagles, meanwhile, may have caught a break when Carson Wentz was lost for the season in Week 13 instead of later on. Backup and one-time Nick Foles seems to be getting his legs under him after a few shaky starts, and had the best game (352 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs) of his career in Philly’s NFC Championship Game blowout win over Minnesota.
About the total (48)
Gronk also looms large among over/under players, as New England will at minimum have to spend time preparing for the possibility he’ll miss a second straight Super Bowl. If the TE is sidelined, the Patriots will go to Plan B – extensive use of running backs as receivers, with the James Whites and Rex Burkheads getting a lot of touches in a possible bonanza for prop bettors.
The Eagles could take the conservative route, preferring to pound the ball with former Patriots LeGarrette Blount, who seems to be at his best in big games.
