Wild Card Weekend kicks off this Saturday starting with the Tennessee Titans versus the Kansas City Chiefs, and there'll be a variety of factors at play in determining whose Super Bowl LII dreams stay alive and whose seasons come to an end.
Here are the four key matchups to watch on the weekend:
Titans at Chiefs
Tyreek Hill vs. Adoree Jackson
Hill is simply terrifying. There isn't a comparable player to him in terms of big-play ability. There's nothing that defensive coordinators fear more than a player who can score in a blink of an eye from anywhere on the field. That describes Hill exactly. While the Titans' pass defense has been problematic this year, it has done a nice job of disallowing big plays. Jackson is just a rookie and isn’t overly big or physical, but he's one of the few players in the league that might be able to hang with Hill in terms of foot speed.
Jackson was a track All-American in 2015 and 2016 at USC and has had a fine rookie season for the Titans. He is an exceptional athlete with game-breaking skills of his own when he handles the ball and Jackson should see snaps on offense on Saturday. Tennessee would be nuts to not supply safety help over the top of their rookie cover man, but this matchup doesn't favor Kansas City as much as most weeks.
Tennessee is a heavy man-to-man coverage team and matching up against Travis Kelce then becomes a big problem, so Jackson may see Hill in more 1-on-1 situations than many might think. Jackson must keep Hill in check in terms of not giving up big plays, and maybe he can just pull it off.
Falcons at Rams
Atlanta's Guards vs. Aaron Donald
Julio Jones' matchup with Trumaine Johnson is a big one, but the Falcons have a big problem on their hands with Donald. Donald, the best defensive player in the NFL, is a handful for every offense he faces, but this week is particularly concerning from Atlanta's standpoint. The Falcons have a decent offensive line, but it's strong at the tackle positions and with Alex Mack at center. The guards are a problem, especially with Andy Levitre now on injured reserve.
Wade Phillips will put Donald all over the interior of the line, but he's at his best as a 3 Technique on the outside shoulder of a guard. None of the Falcons' guards can handle Donald - not even close.
To give this offense a chance of containing Donald, who is known to wreck game plans week after week, two linemen will have to be dedicated in his direction. And that isn't guaranteed to do it. As a result, guys like Robert Quinn on the outside and Michael Brockers on the interior will have a lot of one on one blocking. Quinn and Brockers are both having excellent seasons and could give the Falcons fits in single blocking situations. Plus, Donald was rested in Week 17 and should come out like gangbusters.
Donald is a wrecking machine in both phases and is possibly the best interior pass-rusher in football, but overall, the Rams' defense can be had on the ground.
Bills at Jaguars
Blake Bortles vs. Turnovers
Both of these teams most likely will be leaning on their running game, even if LeSean McCoy can't play for the Bills. Leonard Fournette is coming off an excellent game in Week 17 in which he looked more explosive than in recent weeks and also is coming along well as a receiver. Jacksonville will lean very heavily on Fournette when they have the ball. Buffalo's run defense has been very problematic all year and even more so of late. Still, it's playoff time and your quarterback is going to have to make plays in order to advance.
Bortles surprised many this year and certainly has taken a big step forward from 2016. Valuing the football was an obvious priority and is a big reason for Bortles' improvement. But the stats show that Bortles is turning the ball over more of late. While that is true, the film doesn't imply that he's regressed back to the inept player he was a year ago. Still, Bortles will have to be very careful against Buffalo.
The Bills play a high amount of zone coverage and their philosophy is to force opposing offenses to sustain long drives down the field. Buffalo also has some ball hawks in their secondary and was amongst the league leaders in interceptions. The Bills have the least talented roster of any playoff team and had a minus-57 point differential for the year.
The Jaguars were only one of six teams though that had a better turnover differential than Buffalo. If the Bills are going to pull off the upset, they most likely will need Bortles to make several mistakes with the football.
Panthers at Saints
New Orleans' Running Backs vs. Carolina's Linebackers
The Saints' offense has changed. Of course Drew Brees makes it all go still, but less stress has been placed upon him. Instead, it's Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara that are the focal point of Sean Payton's attack.
It has worked brilliantly both with the ground attack as well as featuring Ingram and Kamara as receivers. The Panthers stress their second-level defenders more than any franchise in the NFL. Not only do they have the league's very best in Luke Kuechly, but they also have two other former first-round picks in Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson.
All three are fantastic athletes and space players and excel in coverage. They are also excellent tacklers, which is extremely important with Ingram and especially Kamara. When these teams first met, in Week 3, Carolina did an exceptional job of keeping Ingram and Kamara in check even though the Saints won that game 34-13. In the rematch, the Saints again emerged victorious in Week 13. In that game, Ingram and Kamara combined for 248 total yards and three touchdowns.
Contrary to popular belief, the Panthers have become a very blitz-heavy defense. In turn, they often rely on their three linebackers to take care of the intermediate portions of the field rather than four defenders. Payton is a master at using personnel, formations, and pre-snap movement to exploit such a situation and of course, Brees should execute Payton's plan flawlessly. As great as the Panthers' linebackers are, this puts a lot of stress on Kuechly, Davis, and Thompson, especially against such a dynamic player like Kamara.
The Panthers have been very stingy in the running game against basically every opponent they've faced other than New Orleans, but even if they do keep Ingram and Kamara in check, Michael Thomas could be poised for a huge game himself.
Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns and spent 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast." Find him on Twitter @WilliamsonNFL.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
