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Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 44)
This line opened up at a low of Kansas City -7.5 and quickly jumped up everywhere to -8 and in some instances, -8.5. My sendout was -8.5 but I could have easily used -9 and would have been happy with that.
Playoff time can be a scary time for the bookmaker. It sometimes comes down to a winner-take-all situation with so few games and less areas to spread the money around. But as we all know; the betting public has their eyes on favorites and the over. Making this truly a game bookmakers should have over compensated on the spread and forced the wise guys to commit their money early on the dog where they could count on the layman’s bets to counter act it on game day.
The more anyone studies this game, is more reason to play the Chiefs. Quarterback comparisons can pretty much be called for Kansas City early by merely looking at the basic stats of each starter. Titans’ signal caller Marcus Mariota, who has 3,232 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and 15 interceptions can’t compete with a seasoned pro like the Chiefs’ Alex Smith, who logged 4,042 yards with a 26-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Chiefs are hot, winners of four in a row and seemed to have captured their mojo back. The Titans have lost three of their past four games and haven’t scored more than 24 points in their last 10 games.
All of that said, this looks like a typical line history with the betting public placing their money on the favorite, jacking up this line towards -9 (and maybe higher) and then the wise guys taking the highest possible number on game day to drive this back down to the -8 area. Bookmakers would be wise to hold the line high early in the week and force the squares to take the worst line and entice the wise guys late with their balancing bets on Sunday. I mean how wise can you be taking the favorite at -9?
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)
Another foolish number by those who make the opening lines. Second game of two where all of the chaser’s money will stream into the favorite. A huge LA market ready to bet their newly minted team having so much success. A -4? Wow, someone is getting a little lazy with these numbers.
I could have said seven from the get-go, but didn’t. I had -6 myself and they already blew by that before the opening day was done. A ton of money will be influenced by the success or failure of the favorite in the first game, so you have to set this line high and force the masses to take a bad number because they hate to take the dog in any case.
But this is an easy read. If the Chiefs handle business, money will continue to follow the favorites and jack this number up or at least keep it high until kickoff. If the dog comes through in game one of the day, money will find the favorite as a “due factor”. There’s no way you can be too high on this number to start the betting off. At -4, bookmakers gave away five limit bets before the week started.
I fully thought this line would be around a touchdown from the start and truly feel it is the correct betting line for bookmakers. But my gut says the Atlanta Falcons are the play due to their team experience, quarterback experience and overall current standing. Although the wise guys got a great early number, I think they’ll wait for the public push on the favorite and take the dog again on the backside game day. The game landing -4 or -6 gets them the side or even a middle.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8, 39)
I’m taking a pass on this line, as a lot will be determined by LeSean McCoy’s status. However, this number seems a little high in regards that the total is so low.
If McCoy is deemed not worthy to play, one advantage for deal seekers is that this line may go up even farther. But the Bills may surprise, by opening up their offensive options instead of pounding the ball with one man. Therefore, creating a unique game-plan that Jacksonville may not have been counting on.
In a one-game situation, I think the higher the line, the better the value Buffalo would be.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7, 48)
Tough line to make, but again, bookmakers failed to anticipate the betting public. This is the fourth game out of all four being played over this weekend that the early money was on the home favorite. I’m not quite sure what oddsmakers were thinking when they made these four lines but it sure was an easy giveaway to the wise guys who had first access.
Each of these four games has a decent (although small) chance of being sided or middled. When you’re talking about the playoffs and the abbreviated schedule and high volume for each game, this can spell catastrophe for the bookmaker if just one game lands.
