Each week, we break down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 44.5)
Titans’ red zone defense vs. Chiefs’ red zone offense
KC head coach Andy Reid is known to fumble the timeout/challenge dynamic, but one of the Chiefs’ most glaring shortcomings is in the red zone. Kansas City ranks 29th in touchdown conversion once it gets inside the 20-yard line with just 42 percent of its chances ending in end zone celebrations.
Tennessee’s defense ranks inside the top 10 for lowest red zone TDs surrendered this season and the unit allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (five) on the year.
Kansas City owns a league best 4.7 yards per carry average, but that’s based more of the first five weeks of the season when Kareem Hunt was taking the NFL by storm. The rookie running back averaged 6.3 yards in his first five games and 3.9 from Week 6 to Week 16.
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)
Rams’ second half defense vs. Falcons’ second half offense
Just like Tiger Woods from a decade ago, the Los Angeles Rams are used to playing in front on Sundays. The Rams lead the league in scoring at 29.9 points per game – more than double their average from last season – and most of that damage came in the first and third quarters.
Los Angeles’ defense is able to get after opposing quarterbacks once the score differential dictates a heavy percentage of pass plays. Aaron Donald and Co. held their foes to 8.8 second-half points per game which ranks as the fourth best second half scoring defense in the league.
The Falcons made a habit of scoring early but then struggling to put up points as the games progressed. About 56 percent of Atlanta’s season points were scored in the first 30 minutes of games and the squad averaged just 3.2 points per third quarter.
Anyone who watched the Falcons play this year knows their offensive execution hasn’t been at the same level since Steve Sarkisian took over as the OC – especially late in games.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9, 39.5)
Jaguars’ passing defense vs. Bills’ passing offense
There was a reason the Bills coaching staff and management wanted to see what their offense would look like with Nathan Peterman running the show - and not just to bring back the J. Peterman references. His disastrous start – which included five first half interceptions – overshadows Tyrod Taylor’s ugly passing numbers. Taylor passed for 2799 yards and averaged just 6.66 yards per pass attempt.
Only the Chicago Bears averaged fewer passing yards per game than the Bills at 176.6 and Buffalo finished second last in pass completions per game. The Bills’ top target is a lumbering tight end (Charles Clay) which probably explains why they finished last in the league in yards after catch (1230).
Jacksonville flexes its defensive muscle most when opponents turn to the air. The Jags allowed league-low 169.9 passing yards per game, finished with the second most sacks and were No. 2 in team interceptions with 21.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 48.5)
Saints’ passing offense vs. Panthers’ passing defense
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara caught all the headlines in the Big Easy this season after the Saints finished with a top five rushing attack for the first time under head coach Sean Payton. That’s not to say New Orleans can’t chuck the ball around the field with veteran quarterback Drew Brees.
The Saints finished fifth in passing yards gained per game at 261.8 and led the league in passer completion percentage with Brees connecting on 72 percent of his pass attempts.
Carolina’s defense excels against the run but struggles with the ball in the air. The Panthers allowed a league-worst 300.3 passing yards per contest in the last three weeks of the season.
