Twelve teams have made it to the tournament, but only one will finish the season as Super Bowl champion - and each playoff squad arrives cruising at different speeds. Here's my breakdown of what to expect.
AFC is top-heavy
It’s hard to imagine that it won’t be either the New England Patriots or Pittsburgh Steelers meeting the NFC winner in the Super Bowl. These two teams have been a class above the rest of the AFC, and they feel like a lock to meet in Foxboro in the AFC Championship Game. That would be a rematch of their home-field-deciding meeting Dec. 17, which came down to the last play. Ben Roethlisberger’s error in game management didn’t just cost the Steelers the game - it also made their road to a title much harder. Teams have rarely won in New England in the playoffs during the Bill Belichick era.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills may be the weakest of the playoff teams. Offensively, they rank in the lower half of the league in most major statistical categories, but still own one of the better rushing attacks - after leading the NFL in running the football last year, they were sixth in 2017. However, LeSean McCoy, the heart of their running game, was injured during Sunday’s win against the Dolphins. If McCoy isn’t his normal self, the Bills will have to rely on their passing game, which is the second-worst in the NFL. That's scary enough before you factor in the Jacksonville Jaguars' tenacious pass rush.
Even if the Bills beat the Jaguars, it seems nearly impossible for them to win in New England the following week.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are the only playoff team riding a two-game losing streak. Thanks to a weak schedule and their midseason run of outstanding old-school football, though, the Jaguars have a legitimate chance to make the AFC Championship Game.
The Jags are the best rushing team in the NFL, and the Bills' defense is 29th against the run. Leonard Fournette, Chris Ivory, and T.J. Yeldon should have a field day. If Sean McDermott can devise a defense that shuts down the Jaguars' rush, the game will rest on the right shoulder of Blake Bortles. Although Bortles has exceeded expectations this season, every pass he throws in the playoffs will be scrutinized. The matchup with the Bills will go a long way in deciding if he will be - or should be - the Jaguars' quarterback of the future.
If Jacksonville takes care of business at home against Buffalo, the team will travel to Pittsburgh, where the Jags beat the Steelers on Oct. 8. If they can repeat that performance, I don’t believe they'll have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Belichick would stop the running game and force Bortles to beat them, and I don’t see that happening.
Tennessee Titans
Like the Bills, the Tennessee Titans should feel very fortunate just to be here. At 9-7, they snuck into the playoffs by barely beating the Jaguars, who had nothing to play for in Week 17.
Tennessee doesn’t match up well against the Chiefs either. Though Kansas City has struggled defensively, the Titans are ranked in the lower third of the league offensively. I don’t envision them taking advantage of Kansas City’s weak pass defense because the Titans' passing attack averages under 200 yards a game. They don’t have the weapons, or the quarterback, to keep up with Alex Smith’s offense.
The Titans are similar to the Bills in another way: If they do make it through the first round, their season will be over the following weekend. That Week 17 win saved Mike Mularkey’s job, but it doesn’t mean they have a real shot at the Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City started the year as one of the hottest teams in the league. Defenses just couldn’t slow down Smith and the “Spread Coast” offense. Then the Chiefs' weaknesses started to show. They went 1-6 after their 5-0 start, and impatient fans yelled for untested backup Patrick Mahomes to replace Smith (even though the veteran's been one of the league's leading quarterbacks all season).
After the midseason slump, the Chiefs won four in a row to secure another playoff berth under Andy Reid. Because of their porous defense, this team could easily lose its wild-card game against the Titans. Because of Smith’s and Reid’s experience, however, this team also has the best chance of beating the Pats and Steelers. Nobody is talking about the Chiefs as Super Bowl contenders, but they do have an experienced playoff coach, quarterback, and roster - and their late-season hot streak could be a sign that the “good Chiefs” are back. Those Chiefs can beat anyone in the league.
NFC is balanced thanks to Eagles' clipped wings
Though they're the No. 1 seed, Carson Wentz's torn ACL means the Philadelphia Eagles no longer look like a team that can get to the Super Bowl through a very balanced NFC playoff field.
While Nick Foles produced an exceptional performance against the New York Giants in his first start replacing Wentz, he's cooled off dramatically. The Eagles need him to play like 2013 Nick Foles (27 TDs versus 2 INTs) if they want to capture their first-ever Lombardi Trophy. I highly doubt that will happen.
Luckily, Foles can rely on his defense and running game, which are both in the NFL's top three. The Eagles also have the advantage of playing at home in the divisional round, which could be a decisive factor against the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, or New Orleans Saints. Even if they win their first playoff game, though, I don’t see them winning two postseason games, especially against the Vikings or Rams. The Eagles’ chances of getting to the Super Bowl ended Dec. 10 in Los Angeles when Wentz’s knee gave out.
Minnesota Vikings
Wentz’s injury leaves the Vikings and Rams as the best teams in the NFC. In the divisional round, the Vikings will play at U.S. Bank Stadium, where they're 7-1 this season.
Mike Zimmer’s defense, which ranks No. 1 in yards and points, has very few weaknesses. The unit plays a ton of man-to-man coverage and succeeded in shutting down some of the NFL’s best players this year. The Vikings held Matt Ryan to 173 yards passing and Julio Jones to 24 yards receiving in an early November win. My biggest concern is the defense getting called for untimely penalties. Because of the man coverage, Minnesota defenders could potentially be called for holding or pass interference on nearly every play. A controversial penalty on cornerbacks Xavier Rhodes or Trae Waynes could derail the team's Super Bowl hopes and add another chapter to the Vikings' long history of crushing playoff losses.
Offensively, Minnesota's run the ball extremely well all season, and Case Keenum has played out of his mind. However, the team lost starting left guard Nick Easton in their Week 16 win, which could be a major blow. The offense didn’t have a great game against the Bears this past weekend, and the Vikings instead relied on their defense to get an ugly win.
Keenum doesn’t have a big arm, and the other playoff teams know it. He is extremely accurate on short to medium throws, and in Minneapolis' comfortable dome. If the Vikings have to go to Philadelphia, which could have terrible weather, Keenum may not have enough arm strength to get the Vikings over the top.
If the Rams beat the Falcons in the wild-card game, they'll face the Vikings. The winner of that game has an excellent shot at getting to the Super Bowl. If the Vikings do represent the NFC, it'll mark the first time a team plays in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Los Angeles Rams
While the Rams are now one of the NFC favorites, their roster only includes a couple of players who have ever played in the postseason, and they'll face the conference's most experienced playoff team, the Falcons.
Besides that inexperience, the biggest weakness of Sean McVay’s team is an inability to stop the run. Atlanta has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, and Ryan won’t be fazed by playing on the road.
If the Rams can get past the Falcons, they'll travel to Minnesota in the divisional round. The Vikings dominated them in U.S. Bank Stadium on Nov. 19: Todd Gurley only had 37 yards rushing and the Vikings nearly doubled the Rams in nearly every offensive category. The rematch could determine which team represents the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta offense hasn’t been the same since Kyle Shanahan took the 49ers' head coaching gig. During their Super Bowl run a year ago, Atlanta had the most explosive offense in the NFL, and Ryan was the MVP.
This year, the offensive stats aren't as dominant, but the Falcons are much better on the other side of the ball. Dan Quinn’s defensive unit was one of the youngest in the league a season ago, and now it's deeper and more experienced.
That defense will have its hands full when the Falcons travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams. They must shut down Gurley, who may have been this year's NFL MVP. If the Falcons can stop the run and force Jared Goff - appearing in his first playoff game - into a shootout, they have a heck of chance to win. L.A.'s pristine weather also helps Atlanta, which plays its best football in good conditions.
New Orleans Saints
I believe the Saints are the only NFC team that could beat the Vikings or Rams on the road. They have Drew Brees, who is a Super Bowl MVP, and two running backs who are headed to the Pro Bowl. More importantly, their vastly improved defense is the Saints' best since their 2009 Super Bowl team.
New Orleans faces divisional rivals the Carolina Panthers at home after beating Cam Newton’s squad twice this season. If the Saints can take care of business, they'll happily face the Eagles in Philadelphia. I see New Orleans as the favorite in this scenario.
After that, Sean Payton’s team would play for the NFC championship in good throwing conditions. The Rams or the Vikings on the road, or the Falcons at home, would be the only thing standing between the Saints and their second Super Bowl appearance. I like Brees’ chances in the NFC Championship Game if they can get past Carolina and Philadelphia.
Carolina Panthers
Newton is the face of the franchise, but he isn’t the No. 1 reason the Panthers are in the playoffs. This year, they've won because of a stingy defense and a strong running game. Though Newton is part of their rushing attack, Carolina's 28th in the league in passing.
Playing in New Orleans against a Saints team they've lost to twice this year will be a tough task. I don’t see Newton’s offense keeping up with Brees’ attack on the road. If they beat the Saints, they will travel to Philadelphia or Minnesota. Their style of football bodes well for victory against the Eagles, especially if the conditions are ugly. Although they beat Minnesota at home in December, the Vikings dominated that game. The Panthers won because of five to six Minnesota miscues, but were otherwise outplayed, and the rematch would be in Minneapolis.
Super Bowl matchup
The Patriots are better than everyone else in the AFC, plus they have home-field advantage. I’d be surprised if Tom Brady doesn’t play in his eighth Super Bowl this year.
In the other conference, I think the Vikings are the favorites. They have home-field advantage against everyone except Philadelphia, which may be the worst team in the NFC playoffs after Wentz’s injury. It’s an extremely balanced conference, however, and an argument can be made for any of the six teams to make it to the Super Bowl. Every NFC game on the way there should be extremely entertaining.
Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football. Find him on Twitter @SageRosenfels18.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
