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A wild ending to Week 17 of the NFL season led to a late change in the roster of 12 playoff teams, eight of which will be on the field next weekend for the wild card playoff round. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)
Buffalo got a late Christmas gift from the Cincinnati Bengals, who scored a last-minute touchdown to knock Baltimore out of the playoffs and put the Bills (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) into the postseason. Buffalo did its part Sunday by beating Miami 22-16 as a 2.5-point road favorite, then waited out the Bengals-Ravens game, with Baltimore’s loss sending the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Jacksonville already had the AFC’s No. 3 seed locked up prior to Sunday, and though the squad had plenty of betting support in Vegas, it didn’t translate to the field. The Jaguars (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) lost a 15-10 slog at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog.
Cooley said early sharp money came in on No. 6 seed Buffalo, dropping the line to Jags -7.
“This feels like a high number, and some on the team wanted to see a much lower spread,” Cooley said. “We’ll see what Blake Bortles and that Jags offense is really made of here. Smart money feels like an under play on the total, and the betting public won’t be terribly interested in this one overall. The Bills are a value play that will garner pro money.”
To Cooley’s point on the under, Bookmaker.eu opened the total at 41, and it was quickly bet down to 40 for this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Tennessee needed a Week 17 win to reach the playoffs, and ugly as it may have been, Mike Mularkey’s troops got the job done. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snapped a nearly season-killing three-game SU skid by beating Jacksonville 15-10 as a 2.5-point chalk to nab the No. 5 seed.
AFC West champ Kansas City couldn’t move up from the No. 4 seed, but that didn’t prevent Andy Reid’s squad from beating a hapless Denver unit. The Chiefs (10-6 SU and ATS) notched a 27-24 victory as a 3-point road ‘dog, despite resting quarterback Alex Smith and several other starters.
Cooley was nonplused by Tennessee, but the Titans did see early sharp action, taking the line from K.C. -7.5 to -7 for this 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday meeting.
“Our ratings have the Titans as the worst team in the playoffs,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs have certainly been uninspiring during the second half of the season, but we’re going to have trouble attracting Tennessee money here. Like the other AFC matchup, it’s definitely not the sexiest, and we’ll have ample teaser and parlay liability with both of the favorites.”
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
Defending NFC champion Atlanta had to win in Week 17 to ensure the No. 6 seed in the NFC. The Falcons (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) put the clamps on Carolina in a 22-10 victory laying 5 points at home.
Third-seeded Los Angeles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) already had the NFC West locked up heading into Week 17 and rested quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley, among others. So it wasn’t a huge surprise that the Rams lost to Jimmy Garoppolo and late-surging San Francisco, 34-13 as a 6-point home pup.
“We know that we’ll see solid Atlanta money from the public, given the star power on the team, but this isn’t your older brother’s Rams bunch,” Cooley said. “We do expect this to be bet down, but at the end of the day, L.A. is multiple pegs higher in the power ratings. We should get solid two-way action from the sharps and squares at this number.”
Indeed, the number was bet down quickly for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday contest, with early sharp action on the visiting Falcons taking the line from L.A. -6 to -4.5.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
New Orleans ended up as the NFC South champion, but didn’t exactly end on the strongest note while falling from the No. 3 seed to No. 4 in Week 17. The Saints (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) went to Tampa Bay as a 6-point fave and lost on a last-minute TD pass 31-24.
Carolina could have taken advantage of that and claimed the division title and a home wild card game, but couldn’t get enough offense in its finale. The Panthers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) fell to Atlanta 22-10 catching 5 points on the road.
“Given how this series played out during the regular season, the average bettor might expect a number closer to a touchdown,” Cooley said. “But we know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be.”
Still, the Saints got a little early shove from bettors, taking them from -5.5 to -6 for Sunday’s 4:30 p.m. ET clash.
