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Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 43.5)
Packers' red-zone dominance vs. Lions' downfield doldrums
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions both came into the 2017 season with plenty of hope - but these NFC North rivals have nothing to play for but price after injuries and inconsistency torpedoed their seasons. But both teams would love to close the season out on a positive note - and in that regard, the visiting Packers have a significant advantage heading into the finale, as they look to continue their red-zone success against a Lions team that has struggled to keep teams off the scoreboard inside the 20.
The Packers can only wonder what could have been after losing quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a collarbone injury midway through the season. But Green Bay can hang its hat on the fact that it will end the regular season as one of the top teams in the NFL when it comes to scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Packers come into Week 17 having scored six points on nearly 61 percent of its trips inside the opposing 20-yard line; only Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Chicago and Oakland have been more prolific.
That spells major problems for the Lions, who have allowed the fourth-most points in the NFC going into the final week of the regular season. It hasn't helped that Detroit has been punished repeatedly deep in its own territory, allowing foes to score touchdowns on more than 61 percent of trips inside the red zone - ahead of only the Packers and Cleveland Browns. Green Bay is a little less scary with Brett Hundley under center, but this is still a mismatch the Packers can exploit Sunday afternoon.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5, 38.5)
Browns' third-down problems vs. Steelers elite drive-extension skills
This game is creating all sorts of problems for bettors, with the Steelers hinting - but not outright saying - that star players might get some rest in the finale. That has resulted in a line drop of 5 1/2 points - and the line should shift dramatically once the Steelers' roster strategy becomes clear. But no matter what happens, Pittsburgh will come into the game as a heavy favorite thanks in no small part to a significant edge over the visitors when it comes to third-down opportunities.
The Browns will do everything in their power to avoid becoming just the second team in NFL season to finish a season 0-16 - and not joining the 2008 Detroit Lions in league infamy will require a much better effort at defending the Steelers on third down. The Browns rank 24th in the NFL at opposing third-down conversion rate, allowing teams to score or extend drives on 41.1 percent of opportunities. That number jumps to 45.8 percent over the past three games.
Even without knowing what the Steelers will do, bettors should look to Pittsburgh's elite third-down performance as a reason to favor the home side in this one. The Steelers have converted an incredible 44.7 percent of their third-down chances; only the Atlanta Falcons have been better. And over the last three games, Pittsburgh has had no equal, making good on better than 63 percent of its third downs. A repeat performance Sunday will almost certainly secure the Browns a place in NFL history.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+1, 44.5)
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. a potential parade of Rams backups
Congratulations to anyone who managed to snag the 49ers +6 when this line opened; things changed quickly once it became clear that the Rams might rest several of its starters this week, with the division title already sewn up and no chance of securing home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. That makes the Rams slight underdogs in oddsmakers' eyes - and gives the 49ers an excellent chance of ending its regular season on an improbable five-game winning streak.
It's no coincidence that the 49ers went from easy mark to world beater once they inserted recent acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback. Garoppolo has won all four of his starts, racking up 1,268 passing yards and five touchdowns over that span. He accounted for three touchdowns in last week's 44-33 victory over powerhouse Jacksonville, and has the San Francisco offense averaging a healthy 27.5 points over his four-game stretch; the 49ers have covered three of those four games.
The Rams were in great position to end the 49ers' winning streak - at least in oddsmakers' eyes - before head coach Sean McVay suggested that resting players was "a luxury we want to take advantage of." Even if quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and other stars make the start, it's a virtual certainty they won't be on the field in the second half, regardless of how the first 30 minutes play out. This game means a lot more to the visiting team - and that should be reflected in the result.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9, 38.5)
Cardinals' penalty-drawing prowess vs. Seahawks' lack of discipline
The Seahawks face a simple objective heading into the final week of the season: Win, and they still have a shot at the playoffs. Host Seattle is an overwhelming favorite in Sunday's encounter with the rival Arizona Cardinals, but that doesn't mean much considering how disappointing the Seahawks have been as a home cover this season (2-5 ATS). And while Arizona is the inferior team in oddsmakers' eyes, it has a major advantage in the penalty department.
Arizona hasn't exactly been a model franchise this season - its 107 accepted penalties are 10th-most in the NFL. But no team has drawn as many penalty flags as the Cardinals (121), resulting in a plus-14 penalty differential that ranks fourth overall. Even more significantly, Arizona's plus-173 penalty-yard margin is the best in the NFL. Arizona fell 22-16 to Seattle in their prior encounter, but drew 12 Seahawks penalties for a whopping 108 yards - a development that contributed to the tight score.
That game serves as a suitable microcosm for the Seahawks' season, one that has been marred by a crippling lack of discipline. Seattle's 140 accepted penalties are 17 more than the next-closest team, and its 1,242 accepted penalty yards exceed runner-up Houston's total by a whopping 225 yards. It's no surprise, then that the Seahawks also rank at the bottom of the league ledger in penalty differential (minus-42) and penalty-yard margin (minus-389).
