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Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5, 44)
Bears' red-zone success vs. Lions' downtrodden defense
The Detroit Lions can ill afford a letdown this weekend as they look to bolster their playoff chances against the division-rival Chicago Bears on Saturday afternoon at Ford Field. The Lions ended a two-game losing skid with a pivotal 24-21 win over the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last weekend, and already have a three-point win in Chicago on their 2017 resume. But the Bears saw a major offensive breakout in Sunday's 33-7 win over Cincinnati, and have a major edge when it comes to red-zone performance.
The Bears hadn't done much with the football this season prior to last weekend, when they established a season high in points while racking up nearly 500 yards of total offense. And yet, Chicago has been one of the league's most prolific teams inside the opposition 20-yard line even before last week's drubbing; its 61.54-percent touchdown success rate in the red zone ranks behind only the Eagles, Raiders, Packers and Cowboys - and it's a significant step up from the 51.02-percent success rate it posted in 2016.
The Lions will need to tighten up a few areas if they aspire to make some noise in the NFC postseason picture - and among those is a deficiency when it comes to limiting opposing teams in the red zone. Detroit has surrendered six points on 63.83 percent of red-zone defensive stands; only the Browns, Packers and Dolphins have been more generous. The Lions scored enough points for that not to matter in their first go-around with the Bears - but they might not be so fortunate this time.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11.5, 39)
Texans' terrible pass defense vs. Jaguars' sensational sack ability
Injuries have completely unravelled the Texans' season as they continue to play out the string this weekend against the playoff-hungry Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston has suffered a litany of injury losses on both sides of the ball, and reached the low point of their campaign last weekend with a 26-16 home defeat at the hands of the lowly San Francisco 49ers. In order to prevent anyone else from winding up on the sidelines, they'll need to figure out how to slow down the league's most dominant pass rush.
Last weekend was a scary one for Texans fans, and the result was only part of the issue. Quarterback Tom Savage was removed from the game after a frightening hit, only to be re-inserted a short time later; he was removed again for good immediately afterward and subsequently diagnosed with a concussion. Whoever takes snaps this weekend will need to deal with an offensive line that has already yielded 41 sacks, tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Houston's 14 interceptions against are tied for fifth-most in the league.
Regardless of who Houston starts under center, the Jaguars will be ready - and certainly able - to drag him to the turf. Jacksonville has run roughshod over opposing quarterbacks in 2017, leading the league with 47 sacks - six more than runner-up Pittsburgh - for 305 sack yards lost. Not surprisingly, all that QB pressure has led to Jacksonville snagging 19 interceptions, second only to Baltimore. Look for the Jaguars to make life absolutely miserable for Houston's beleaguered offensive line this weekend.
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2, 44.5)
Titans' tremendous discipline vs. 49ers; penalty-flag party
The Titans have overcome inconsistency on both side of the ball to remain the AFC playoff hunt entering this weekend's showdown with the host 49ers. Tennessee is coming off a 12-7 setback to the Arizona Cardinals; it's just the second loss in the last eight games for the Titans, who feared they had lost quarterback Marcus Mariota to a knee injury but learned he should play this weekend. And while the 49ers are slight favorites, they're giving plenty away in the penalty flag department.
Tennessee hasn't been flashy this season, but it has exhibited tremendous discipline through its first 13 games. The Titans come into the week having been flagged just 75 times, the fourth-fewest accepted penalties in the league. Combined with being on the positive side of 101 accepted penalties from the opposition, and Tennessee's plus-26 penalty flag margin leads the NFL. The Titans also rank ninth in the NFL in total penalty yard margin at plus-93.
When things go bad, it can be hard to keep one's composure. And that certainly appears to be the case in San Francisco, where the 49ers have seen 104 accepted penalties go against them; only the rival Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins have accrued more yellow flags. Combine that with the fact that San Francisco has drawn just 76 opposition flags, and their minus-28 differential ranks ahead of only the Seahawks; they also rank second-last in penalty yard differential (minus-202).
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6, 47.5)
Falcons' drive-extension prowess vs. Buccaneers' third-down troubles
The Atlanta Falcons' quest to return to the Super Bowl hit a major speed bump in a five-week span earlier in the season - but the defending NFC champions have returned to form at the right time as they look to rise to the top of the competitive South division with a win Monday night at Tampa. The Falcons have won four of five and are coming off a critical 20-17 win over rival New Orleans; they also come into this one with a sizeable edge when it comes to third-down situations.
The Falcons were no doubt aided by an early injury to electrifying Saints running back Alvin Kamara, but they were still facing a formidable New Orleans defense - and they did exactly what they had to do, controlling the clock (34:41 time of possession) thanks in large part to a 7-for-12 showing on third down. That's nothing new to Atlanta, which leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.4 percent and has been even more effective over the last three games, converting at a 52.8-percent clip.
That bodes poorly for a Buccaneers team that has completely unravelled on third-down defense this season after leading the NFL in that category last season. Tampa Bay is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on a whopping 48.3 percent of third-down situations, after posting a 34.4-percent mark in 2016. The Lions extended the Bucs' misery by going 5-for-11 on third down in Sunday's win, and Tampa Bay would be fortunate to hold Atlanta to a similar success rate in the Monday nighter.
