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Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 39.5)
49ers' wretched red-zone record vs. Bears' bend-but-don't-break D
It's a battle of teams who will likely have high picks in the 2018 draft when the Chicago Bears host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon. The Bears have dropped four in a row to sink to the bottom of the NFC North division - a disappointing development considering Chicago was near the .500 mark prior to the skid. Getting back there is highly improbable, but Sunday's encounter with the 1-10 49ers offers hope thanks to a sizeable edge in opponent red zone play.
Bettors can dig up a variety of factors for San Francisco having just one victory on the season - and near the top of the list is the 49ers' season-long inability to convert trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line into touchdowns. San Francisco comes into Week 13 ranked 25th out of 32 teams in red-zone touchdown rate, reaching the end zone just 48.2 percent of those time. All those wasted trips downfield offer a reasonable explanation for why the 49ers average just 17 points per game in 2017.
Life doesn't get any easier for the San Francisco offense in this one, as the host Bears have actually been a solid defensive unit when it comes to red-zone scoring prevention. Teams have turned red-zone opportunities into six points just 48.7 percent of the time against Chicago, the 11th-best rate in the league. Neither team is expected to put many points on the board - check out that total - but give the Bears a big green checkmark in the red-zone D department - and that mismatch could very well decide this one.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 40.5)
Colts' terrible QB protection vs. the phenomenon known as "Sasksonville"
The Jacksonville Jaguars can't get to Week 13 quickly enough. After seeing their four-game winning streak snapped in a 27-24 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Jaguars will look to regain sole possession of top spot in the AFC South as they host the division-rival Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is already a near-double-digit favorite in this one, and could make it a blowout if they can exert their pass-rush dominance against a Colts team that has struggled to protect the quarterback.
Losing Andrew Luck for the season was certainly a blow to the Indianapolis offense, but it isn't like the Colts' offensive line would have done a good job of shielding him, anyhow. Indianapolis quarterbacks have been taken down a league-high 47 times so far this season; only two teams allowed more sacks than that in the entire 2016 season. Jacoby Brissett absorbed five sacks the last time these teams met, when Jacksonville cruised to a 27-0 victory back on Oct. 22.
But don't take all those takedowns personally, Jacoby - that's just how the Jaguars roll. They come into the week with a league-best 41 sacks, resulting in 269 lost yards overall. The Jacksonville defense has been incredibly proficient in a number of areas - sitting tied for third in forced fumbles (17), sharing the lead in recovered fumbles (11) and scoring a league-high four touchdowns on those recoveries - but it's all those sacks that should have Colts fans and bettors alike concerned this Sunday.
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5, 42.5)
Browns' robust run game vs. Chargers' ground struggles
Will Cleveland win a game this season? You might fancy a wager if you believe the Browns will pull out a win somewhere along the way - but don't expect that victory to come in Week 13, with the visitors a nearly-two-touchdown underdog against a Chargers team that has rolled to back-to-back victories and sits just one game back of division-leading Kansas City in the AFC West. But stay tuned, bettors: Cleveland might have a way to keep this one closer than expected.
Cleveland's offensive struggles are well noted - the team averages a league-worst 15.1 points per game on the back of a passing attack in which the Browns complete just over 54 percent of their attempts. But the running game has actually been an area of strength so far in 2017, averaging an impressive 4.4 yards per carry - the seventh-highest mark in the league. Isaiah Crowell has been able to move the chains for most of the season, provided that he doesn't get knocked out of the game script.
The Chargers will look to force Cleveland into repeated third-down situations, with the Browns converting a league-worst 30 percent of those opportunities to date. But Los Angeles might have trouble keeping the Browns from excelling on the ground - the home side is allowing 4.9 yards per carry this season, tied with New England for the worst rate against in the NFL. If Crowell can break off a handful of meaningful runs, the Browns could control the clock sufficiently to cover this massive spread.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+7, 45.5)
Rams' elite kicking game vs. Cardinals' field goal follies
The Los Angeles Rams essentially control their playoff fate as they head into Arizona for a Sunday afternoon appointment with the NFC West-rival Cardinals. The Rams own a one-game lead over the Seattle Seahawks atop the division, and can help bolster their postseason chances with a win this weekend. Much of the focus will be on the Los Angeles offense taking on Arizona's impressive defense - but let's not overlook the kicking game, where the visitors own a significant advantage.
Good teams get meaningful contributions from just about everyone on the roster - and the Rams certainly fit that bill, with terrific quarterback play from Jared Goff, an elite running game led by Todd Gurley and a stout defense anchored by Aaron Donald. But we can't forget placekicker Greg Zuerlein, who is having a career year with 32 field goals on 34 attempts through 11 games - including a 16-of-17 success rate on kicks of 40 yards or longer. The Rams' 94.1-percent field goal conversion rate ranks fourth overall.
The Cardinals have given plenty of points away via the turnover; they cough up the ball an average of 1.6 times per game, ranking 26th out of 32 teams entering the week. But they've also been negligent when it comes to spoiling field-goal opportunities. Kicker Phil Dawson has whiffed on six of his 23 field-goal attempts, including four from 30-39 yards. Not only do the Cardinals rank 25th in conversion rate league-wide, they've also seen opposing kickers make every field-goal attempt through 11 weeks.
