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Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)
Bengals QB protection issues vs. Jaguars' sack-happy defense
The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been the most consistent team in football this season, but they remain very much in the hunt for the AFC South title as they host the Cincinnati Bengals. Jacksonville's four victories have come by at least 21 points, and they're coming off a much-needed bye week following a 27-0 rout of Indianapolis a week earlier. Yet, as impressive as the Jaguars offense has been at times, it's the defense - which has a sizeable advantage this week - that could lead this team to a division crown.
The Bengals' offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback Andy Dalton so far this season, giving up sacks on better than nine percent of dropbacks - the fourth-worst rate in the league. Cincinnati has surrendered 22 total sacks through its first seven games, while their 48 passes defended rank behind only the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals allowed a sack on just 6.8 percent of their dropbacks last season, and their eight interceptions thrown match their entire 2016 total.
Dalton isn't likely to get much relief this weekend against a Jaguars pass rush considered one of the best in the sport. In addition to recording four defensive touchdowns, 10 interceptions and nine forced fumbles, Jacksonville leads the NFL with a whopping 33 sacks - six more than the second-place Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have produced a sack on 12.3 percent of opposing dropbacks so far this season, miles ahead of the 5.7-percent rate they recorded last season.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+3.5, 42)
Rams' drive-extension prowess vs. Giants' third-down doldrums
The Rams carry a two-game winning streak into Sunday afternoon's encounter with a Giants team that might already be looking toward next season. Los Angeles is coming off a bye following Week 7's 33-0 dismantling of the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, and still boasts one of the league's top offenses as we near the midway point of the season. One of the main reasons: An elite third-down offensive showing that runs in stark contrast to the Giants' inability to sustain drives.
Led by an emerging star in quarterback Jared Goff, the Rams have been sensational at keeping the football, converting nearly 49 percent of their third-down opportunities - the best rate in the NFL. Los Angeles went a stunning 13-for-19 on third downs in the one-sided win over the Cardinals, allowing it to retain possession for more than 39 minutes. It's a complete 180-degree turn for the Rams, who finished dead last in 2016 by converting just 31 percent of their third-down chances.
The Giants can sympathize with last year's version of the Rams - in more ways than one. With just one win in its first seven games, New York is off to a nightmare start - and its third-down troubles are a part of that. The Giants have earned a first down or points on just 32.6 percent of their third downs; only San Francisco, Miami and Cleveland have been less prolific. And with Eli Manning down to just a few worthwhile offensive options, that number could dip even further.
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 44)
Broncos' red-zone struggles vs. Eagles' relentless offense
You can't often make the case that a Week 7 game is "must-win", but the Broncos can ill afford to risk falling another game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West as they visit the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. Denver comes into the week having lost three in a row, and will need to improve its red zone offense if it has any hope of overtaking the Chiefs atop the division. And even that might not matter against an Eagles team that has been one of the NFL's most dangerous inside its opponents' 20-yard line.
The Broncos are 2 1/2 games back of Kansas City following Monday's 29-19 loss to the Chiefs, and their red-zone offense is at least partly to blame for Denver's recent struggles. The Broncos converted 1-of-3 red-zone trips into touchdowns in the loss to Kansas City, and has scored TDs from inside the opponents' 20-yard line at a 44-percent rate; only Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Arizona have been less prolific in the red zone.
Meanwhile, what a difference a year has made in Philadelphia. Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent. And there's a good chance of that trend continuing, given that the Eagles have converted on 87.5 percent of red-zone trips over their past three games, and are scoring red-zone touchdowns at a 76.9-percent pace at home.
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)
Redskins' dynamite discipline vs. Seahawks' flag follies
The Washington Redskins have a difficult task ahead of them as they venture to hostile CenturyLink Field for an NFC encounter with the Seattle Seahawks. Washington has just one win over its first three road games, and adding to that total will be tough against a Seattle team that has won each of its first three home games. But Washington might have an equalizer: A pattern of disciplined play that could come in handy against the penalty-happy Seahawks.
Washington has been on its best behavior through seven games, incurring just 38 total penalties for a league-low 291 yards against. The Redskins have been particularly disciplined when they have the ball, picking up as scant 13 offensive penalties for 105 yards. Even in Sunday's 33-19 home defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Washington was charged with just five penalties for 32 yards while drawing eight flags for 89 yards against the visitors.
The Seahawks are running neck-and-neck with the Rams for NFC West supremacy, but they'll need to work on their discipline moving forward. Seattle has been flagged an NFL-high 66 times on the season, while the 534 total yards they've surrendered via penalty are sixth-most in the league. The Seahawks also rank last overall in penalty flag differential (minus-22) and penalty yard differential (minus-156). If that trend continues, Washington could make a game of it.
