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The most important player status you need to know about this weekend not including your fantasy team - Leonard Fournette. Find out why and more betting notes on every game on the NFL board this Sunday.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 38)
Points are hard to come by for the Miami Dolphins. The Jay Cutler-led offense ranks last in points per game at 12.2 and the under is 5-0 in Miami games this season.
Don’t expect a spike in touchdowns this week against the Jets. Dolphins deep-threat DaVante Parker is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game because of an ankle injury.
LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Fish as 3-point favorites with a bit of extra juice to back the home side, although there were a few 3.5s on the board. Miami remains 3-point chalk heading into the weekend. The total opened as high as 39 but all shops are dealing 38.5 or 38.
TRENDS:
*The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against Miami.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-3, 44)
Jameis Winston will be the starting quarterback for the Bucs on Sunday at Buffalo against the Bills. Winston sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder last weekend against the Arizona Cardinals and was forced to sit out.
He didn’t practice much during the week but head coach Dirk Koetter saw enough from Winston during Friday’s practice to tell reporters his No. 1 QB would be under center against the Bills. The Bucs will turn to veteran signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick should Winston’s injury worsen against the Bills.
LINE HISTORY: Not much history to this line. Sportsbooks opened the spread today after news broke that Winston would in fact start at quarterback for TB.
TRENDS:
*The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The Over is 9-1 in the Bills’ last 10 home games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 43.5)
Before you bet on this game you might want to check on Jags running back Leonard Fournette’s status. He missed the last three days of practice this week with a bad right ankle but head coach Doug Marrone won’t rule out the possibility of Fournette taking the field on Sunday.
Fournette’s 732 yards from scrimmage account for 35 percent of Jacksonville’s total offensive yards gained this season and he’s scored seven of his team’s 14 touchdowns.
LINE HISTORY: Mostly all Jags -3 on the betting board but we did see a few -3.5 earlier in the week. The total opened at 44 and has been bet down to 43.5.
TRENDS:
*The Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Colts.
*The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 matchups between these two sides.
*The Over is 4-0 in the Colts’ last four games.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 38.5)
The Ravens have a long history of stout defenses over the years but there’s no question which team has the better stopper unit in this matchup. The Vikings are allowing the fifth fewest offensive yards per game and their third down defense is a big part of the reason. Minnesota’s opponent third down conversion rate is the lowest in the NFL at 25 percent.
LINE HISTORY: There’s been a fair amount of movement and different spreads offered on this game throughout the week. Some shops opened with the Ravens getting 4.5 points and, as we head into the weekend, there are a few 6s on the board.
TRENDS:
*The Vikings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.
*The Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 45)
This is the Rams third ever game across the pond in London and second in as many years. They’re 0-2 straight up and against the spread in their previous games in England.
First year head coach Sean McVay is trying a different travel schedule than the one used by his predecessor a year ago. The Rams stayed in Jacksonville after their game on Sunday and didn’t leave for London until Thursday. Last year, former head coach Jeff Fisher had his team leave for London immediately after their game at Detroit.
LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Rams as 3.5-point chalk but many sportsbooks are now offering it at a field goal spread. The total was originally posted at 47.5 and has been bet down to 46.
TRENDS:
*The Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
*The Over is 7-1 in the Rams’ last eight games overall.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+4, 47.5)
The Packers usually don’t do very well they use Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is 3-5 straight up and 2-6 against the spread without Rodgers since he took over the starting duties under center in 2008.
The Packers aren’t accustomed to getting points at Lambeau Field. New Orleans is only the second team to be favored at Green Bay since the start of the 2014 season.
LINE HISTORY: The line was as high as Saints by six and as low as Packers +4. Most shops are dealing the 4-point line entering the weekend. The total can be found at 47.5 and 48.
TRENDS:
*The Saints are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (+3, 40.5)
The Panthers star linebacker Luke Kuechly will not play this weekend against the Chicago Bears. He’s still in concussion protocol after a blow to the head during Week 6 Thursday Night Football against the Eagles.
Carolina is 6-3 ATS in games with Kuechly over the last couple seasons and the under is 5-2-2 in those nine games.
LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point road favorites and there are a few shops now listing them as 3.5-point chalk. The total is holding steady between 40.5 and 41.
TRENDS:
*The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games overall.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 45.5)
You know things have to be bad at the quarterback position if the Browns are sending rookie DeShone Kizer back out back out as the starter. The lowest qualified quarterback rating each year is normally in the mid to high 60s.
Ryan Fitzpatrick had the worst mark last season at 69.6 while Peyton Manning had it the year prior at 67.9. Kizer is carrying a 49.5 rating through five starts this season. That’s 16.6 points below next worst Joe Flacco at 66.1.
LINE HISTORY: The Browns opened as 5.5-point home dogs but many books are now starting to offer Tennessee -6. The total opened at 46.5 and is moving down at some locations by a point to 45.5.
TRENDS:
*The Titans are 5-23-3 in their last 31 games against teams with losing records.
*The Browns are 6-25-1 ATS in their last 32 games.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+6, 48.5)
At the beginning of the week we were told Ezekiel Elliot would not play this weekend and his six-game suspension would start immediately, but his lawyers were able to get a hearing from an appeals board and he won’t have to serve the suspension until the hearing. That means Zeke will play against the Niners and probably against Washington in Week 8 too.
Elliott has rushed for 80 or more yards in four of Dallas’ five games but the team is still 2-3 SU and ATS on the season.
LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 6-point road faves and a few shops have bumped them up a half point to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and now rests at 48.
TRENDS:
*The Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
*The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 road games.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 40.5)
The Bengals just might have all the tools to make it another difficult day at the office for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Cincy gets pressure on opposing quarterbacks at a league-leading rate of 34 percent this campaign (hat tip to ESPN’s Katherine Terrell).
Big Ben has been pressured on only 15.2 percent of his dropbacks but he owns just a 72.5 passer rating when facing a blitz.
LINE HISTORY: The spread opened with the home side giving six points but it’s come down to Steelers -5 as we enter the weekend. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 40.5.
TRENDS:
*The Under is 5-1 in the last six games between these two sides.
*The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Pick, 40.5)
The Chargers are returning home but that might not be a good thing. The team is still seeking its first win since moving its home from San Diego to Los Angeles. The Bolts are 0-3 SU and ATS at the StubHub Center in Carson – a stadium normally used for housing MLS games – not NFL ones.
The Chargers have always had one of the weaker home field advantages in the NFL – even when they played in San Diego. The club is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 home games.
LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Chargers giving a point but it moved down to a pick and a few shops now even list the Broncos as 1-point faves. The total opened at 42.5 but has been bet down to 41.
TRENDS:
*The road team is 10-3-2 ATS in the last 15 games played between these two divisional rivals.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+4, 40)
The Giants already showed their offense was pretty vanilla this season, but losing wideout Odelll Beckham Jr. removes a big-play element that will be sorely missed against the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense surrenders touchdowns when their opponents are inside the red zone only 23 percent of the time. That’s the best mark in the league. Eli Manning will find it difficult to dink and dunk passes once the end zone approaches.
LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 6-point road favorites but the line is dropping at all books – so as low as Seattle -4. The total opened at 38.5 and has been moved up a point or a point and a half depending on the sportsbook.
TRENDS:
*The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
*The Under is 5-1 in the Giants’ last six home games.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3, 56.5)
Matt Ryan does not look like the league MVP from a year ago. He’s thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns and the Falcons have lost two straight SU and ATS – both at home against mediocre AFC East competition.
Ryan finished last season with a 117.1 QB rating. This season he’s carrying around an 87.3 rating – a 29.8 rating drop. Getting No. 2 receiver Mohamed Sanu back in the fold on Sunday should give Ryan a boost.
LINE HISTORY: The big movement in this game came on the total. The over/under line opened as low as 53.5 and is now as high as 56.5.
TRENDS:
*Atlanta is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games.
*The Over is 8-2 in New England’s last 10 games overall.
