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“Never bet on bad teams.”
That’s an age-old sports betting proverb we've all heard tossed around in conversations at the back of the sportsbook, at the end of the bar, and in faceless debates on Twitter. It was handed down by the Gambling Gods on the back of a drink ticket, with other such gems as, “Good teams win. Great teams cover” and “A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned”.
But when you write a column that exclusively features NFL underdogs each and every week, you’re often limited to the bad teams. It’s like shopping at the discount grocery store and trying to find a tomato without a bruise or a can without a dent or a pack of ham without a beard.
Week 5 is a pretty good example of that pursuit. There are some bad teams taking the points this week - many of which I trust about as much as the guy who phones to tell me there’s a security issue with my computer and only needs my credit card number to fix the issue.
As far as the standings go, you can’t get much lower than the San Francisco 49ers. At 0-4, the Niners are right where they’re supposed to be at the bottom of the NFC West, and looking like a terrible team. However, if we put our sports betting goggles on, we see San Fran near the top of the ATS board with a 3-1 record against the spread, including a 18-15 overtime loss to Arizona as a 6-point road underdog in Week 4.
The 49ers are +2 at Indianapolis for Week 5, taking on a Colts team that’s a smidge above “terrible” at 1-3 SU, which is just plain “bad”. Indianapolis also lost to the Cardinals in overtime and beat up on a bad Browns teams at home (nearly giving up a 31-14 lead), before getting unraveled in the second half versus Seattle Sunday night.
Looking beyond the Niners’ winless record, we see a stop unit that is adapting to new defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s systems and got the pass rush going against a thin Arizona offensive line last Sunday, sacking Carson Palmer six times. The Colts gave up three sacks to Seattle with the pressure hounding Jacoby Brissett to a 2-for-9 second half in which he totaled only 15 passing yards. There are some offensive line issues for Indy (specifically at center) and that could be exploited Sunday.
Another hidden gem with 0-4 San Francisco is the consistent production from running back Carlos Hyde, who despite a hip injury that limited his snaps, rushed for 68 yards and added another 27 in receiving against Arizona. Outside of a tough Week 1 against Carolina, Hyde is the backbone of this offense and faces an Indianapolis defense that has been gashed for big plays on the ground.
So, this play on San Fran +2 is not a bet on a “bad” team, it’s a bet on a “terrible” team playing a “bad” team. And betting on terrible teams is A-OK in my book.
Pick: San Francisco +2
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 52 fourth-quarter points over the last three games, including barfing up a 13-0 lead to the Chargers in L.A. Sunday, coming away with a 26-24 win as 2-point road pups.
Besides a Week 1 win over Washington - and I’m always hesitant to take those openers into account – the Eagles got beat by the Chiefs in Week 2, nearly blew a 14-0 lead at home in an overtime win against the Giants, and then, as mentioned, squeaked out a 2-point victory in what was a default home field at a StubHub Center over run by Philly fans.
Philadelphia is giving up 285 passing yards per game and takes on an Arizona attack that is pretty much limited to throwing the football. In the boxscore, the Cardinals’ narrow win over the Niners doesn’t look good. However, Arizona did have two touchdowns taken off the board on close calls – one of those to running back Andre Ellington.
Losing top rusher David Johnson was a big knock to this offense, but Ellington has helped make up for that with his ability to catch the ball, recording 19 receptions for 192 yards on short passes which effectively work the same as a RB toss. Veteran RB Chris Johnson also added three catches for 31 yards Sunday.
This is a lot of points for a team like the Eagles to give, considering their shaky results and fourth-quarter collapses.
Pick: Arizona +6.5
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3)
The Bears’ move to start top draft pick Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback has everyone buzzing in the Windy City. Chicago fans are eager to see if trading up to grab the UNC product at No. 2 was worth all those picks, and that’s a lot to put on a rookie QB making his first start against one of the scariest defenses in the NFL on Monday Night Football. No pressure...
Everyone has questions, but the only thing the Bears defense is asking is, “Will this guy give us a break?” Chicago’s defense has been overworked with Mike Glennon under center, thanks to his turnover-prone play through four weeks. Glennon turned the football over eight times - five interceptions and three lost fumbles – and watched a tired defense surrender too many points off turnovers.
Without those extra reps, Chicago’s defense is pretty good, allowing just 306.2 yards per game (8th) including the NFL’s sixth ranked rushing defense (85.5 yards per game). Besides getting blown out by Green Bay in Week 4 – a game in which they allowed 28 points off turnovers and missed FG attempts – the Bears have checked some very potent offenses: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh.
If Trubisky can even turn the ball over half as much as Glennon (and he looked good in the preseason, going 36 of 53 for 364 total yards, three TDs, no INTs, and a 106.2 QB rating), Chicago’s defense should have enough to at least finish inside the field goal.
Pick: Chicago +3
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 6-6 ATS
Jason Logan is the senior managing editor for Covers.com. You can tell him how much his NFL underdog picks suck on Twitter @CoversJlo.
