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Week 3 of the NFL regular season resumes with a big Sunday sled of games, plenty of which are seeing significant wagering. Covers checks in on the action for four of those games, with insights from Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Tom Ostrow, analyst for offshore sportsbook MyBookie.ag.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills – Open: +1; Move: +2; Move: +3
Denver is out of the box 2-0 SU and ATS, but making its first road trip of the season for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. The Broncos stunned Dallas 42-17 in Week 2 as a 2.5-point home underdog, holding Ezekiel Elliott to just 8 yards rushing on nine carries.
Buffalo (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) won and cashed in Week 1 at home against the New York Jets, but couldn’t get anything going offensively in Week 2 at Carolina. The Bills gave up just three field goals to the Panthers, but lost 9-3 as a 6.5-point home pup.
“Broncos coming off a really good performance against the Cowboys, so the fans have the Broncos in mind. The Bills have not looked great offensively,” Simbal said. “This game opened with the Broncos, traveling to Buffalo, being a 1-point favorite. It’s been bet up all the way to 3. Public play on the Broncos.”
MyBookie also went from Denver -1 to -3 and has a big decision riding on this game.
“The NFL game of the week from a betting perspective, with over 75 percent of the money in on the Broncos -3,” Ostrow said. “With eight times the money on the Broncos over the Bills, MyBookie.ag needs Buffalo to win the game.”
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions – Open: +3; Move: None
Detroit is a home underdog once again, having won from that role in Week 1 against Arizona, 35-23 catching 2.5 points. The Lions (2-0 SU and ATS) followed with a strong showing at the New York Giants in Week 2, winning 24-10 as a 3-point ‘dog in the Monday night contest.
Defending NFC champion Atlanta (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) looked more like last year’s squad in Week 2, for a rematch of the conference championship game. The Falcons led Green Bay 31-7 early in the third quarter and coasted to a 34-23 victory as a 3-point home chalk.
“This game has been all Falcons money, not too surprisingly,” Simbal said of the 1 p.m. ET contest. “The Lions, even though they’ve had a nice start to the season, big win on Monday night in New York, it didn’t really get the attention of the public. The public is all over the Falcons, especially after what they did to the Packers. So we’re certainly gonna be rooting for the Lions in this game, and as of now, it’s shaping up to be one of the bigger decisions.”
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers – Open: -9.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5
In its first two games this season, Green Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) faced two playoff teams from last season and mustered a split. Coming off a home win and cover over Seattle, the Packers couldn’t keep up with Atlanta in Week 2, losing 34-23 as a 3-point road underdog.
Cincinnati has been awful in both its games so far, going off as a home favorite both times and losing SU and ATS. In the Week 2 Thursday nighter, the Bengals managed only three field goals – the last one coming midway through the third quarter – in a 13-9 loss to Houston laying 5.5 points.
“We’ve actually seen some sharp action on Cincinnati, believe it or not,” Simbal said, noting early wagering was definitely wiseguys, before the line really took a tumble the past couple of days from 9 to 7.5. “The sharp action is backing the ‘dog. Maybe this game’s a little bit closer than people think.”
This non-conference contest kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -5.5; Move: -6
What bettors saw last is definitely affecting their opinion of New York for this 1 p.m. ET NFC East clash. The Giants (0-2 SU and ATS), who scored just 3 points on the road against Dallas in Week 1, lost their home opener 24-10 to Detroit as a 3-point fave under the Monday night lights in Week 2.
Philadelphia had a solid Week 1 win at Washington, but couldn’t maintain its road momentum in Week 2. The Eagles (1-1 SU and ATS) lost to Kansas City 27-20 catching 4 points. Philly finally gets to play before the home fans, and public bettors are responding well.
“The Giants coming off two straight losses, obviously their offense has been terrible this year,” Simbal said. “They were slated to be a 3-point underdog against Philly. They have the Detroit Lions game on Monday night and lose, and now that line balloons all the way to 6. So the Eagles are a 6-point favorite just kind of off the public’s perception of how bad the Giants have looked. Maybe a little value in the Giants there, because just one game pushed this line all the way up toward 6.”
Simbal noted there hadn’t been much sharp action, figuring the pros might wait to see if they can get an even better number on the Giants, if public cash keeps flowing on the Eagles.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers – Open: -2.5; Move: -3
Kansas City is getting it done on the field and at the betting window so far, at 2-0 SU and ATS. The Chiefs followed up their shocking rout at New England with a 27-20 home win over Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite.
Los Angeles is 0-2 SU (1-0-1 ATS) but could just as easily be 2-0, were it not for the place-kicking woes of Younghoe Koo. The Chargers rallied from a 17-point deficit and had a chance to force overtime at Denver in Week 1, but had a field goal blocked in a 24-21 loss as a 3-point pup. Then last week, Koo missed a 44-yarder in the waning seconds as San Diego lost to Miami 19-17 giving 3.5 points at home.
“Tons of action is coming in on this game, with a 60/40 split in favor of Kansas City,” Ostrow said of this 4:25 p.m. ET meeting. “Many bettors are taking the Chiefs on the moneyline instead of the spread, perhaps seeing the Chargers’ two heartbreaking losses by a combined 5 points.”
