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With apologies to Christmas, this is the most wonderful time of the year. College football is in full swing, and the first NFL regular-season Sunday is on tap this weekend. Covers checks in on the action for a 12-game NFL Sunday sked, with insights from Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5
Arizona is coming off a disappointing season, while Detroit is coming off a playoff appearance, but bettors have made a big move toward the Cardinals in this 1 p.m. ET contest. Bruce Arians’ troops went 7-9 SU and 6-10 ATS in 2016, after reaching the NFC title game two seasons ago.
Detroit was 9-4 SU (8-5 ATS) through 13 games last season and in control of its destiny atop the NFC North. However, the Lions dumped their last three regular-season tilts SU and ATS, ended up with a wild-card berth, and got pounded at Seattle 26-6 as an 8-point underdog to finish 9-8 SU (8-9 ATS).
“A lot of people were thinking the Lions were fortunate last year to even make the playoffs,” Simbal said. “It’s indicative of the action we’ve seen on this game. The sharp action really drove this price from Arizona being a 3-point ‘dog to becoming the favorite.”
CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and the Venetian on the Vegas Strip, opened this game back in April, though much of the movement has come in the last couple of weeks. TopBet.eu also posted this matchup months ago at Detroit -3 and had the Lions -2 on Aug. 25 before things really began moving.
“We got a sharp play on Arizona +2, so we moved to Cards +1,” Jerome said. “On Aug. 28, we moved to a pick ‘em, on Sept. 2, we moved to Arizona -1.”
The Cards climbed to -2 by Friday and -2.5 Saturday. Jerome said 77 percent of the money and 80 percent of the tickets are on Arizona.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans – Open: Pick; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -2; Move: -2.5
Last year, Oakland was putting the finishing touches on its best season in more than a decade when star QB Derek Carr broke his leg in Week 16. The Raiders still finished 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS) but fell into the wild-card playoff round, where they lost to Houston 27-14 as a 4-point road underdog.
Tennessee went 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) in 2016, missing the playoffs after losing a tiebreaker with Houston for the AFC South title. But the Titans finished on a strong note, winning four of their last five, and bettors are lining up behind them for this 1 p.m. ET start, as this game has seen significant movement in just the past two weeks.
“On Aug. 29, we got sharp action on Tennessee pick 'em, so we moved Titans to -1,” Jerome said, adding the line went to -2 a day later and to -2.5 (-125) on Wednesday.
While the sharps have played Tennessee, Jerome said Oakland is still getting plenty of attention, with 69 percent of the money and 73 percent of bets.
CG Technology actually opened Oakland -1 back in April, then the game flipped to Titans -1 on Aug. 29 and got to Titans -2.5 on Thursday.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns – Open: +9; Move: +9.5; Move: +9; Move: +9.5
Pittsburgh is among the teams near the top of the Super Bowl futures odds. The Steelers went 11-5 SU (9-7 ATS) last year, winning their last seven games of the regular season (5-1-1 ATS) to take the AFC North. Mike Tomlin’s squad then won and cashed against Miami in the wild-card round and at Kansas City in the divisional round, before falling at New England 36-17 getting 5.5 points in the AFC title game.
Cleveland had a season to forget, which can describe most Cleveland seasons. The Browns went a paltry 1-15 SU and 3-12-1 ATS, yet for some reason, sharp players were on Cleveland seemingly every week. That trend hasn’t yet stopped for this 1 p.m. ET contest.
“Nobody really thinks (the Steelers) are gonna lose this game, but the sharp players have taken the points with the Browns, and as we know, the public is always gonna back Pittsburgh when they’re playing Cleveland,” Simbal said. “So we have a real kind of Pros vs. Joes matchup here. The books are gonna be siding with the pros in this one, definitely needing the Browns. The sharps were on Cleveland last year a lot, and they got burned with it all year. They’re hoping that maybe this year, a change of fortune.”
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams – Open: +3; Move: +2.5; Move: +2; Move: +1.5; Move: Pick; Move: -1.5; Move: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4
Indianapolis went 8-8 SU (7-8-1 ATS) last year, alternating SU wins and losses over its final seven games. So the Colts are hoping to become a consistent winner, but already face a setback as they won’t have Andrew Luck today, while he continues recovering from offseason shoulder surgery.
As Luck’s absence became more likely late last month, the line began rumbling toward pick, and since becoming official last week, it steamed toward Los Angeles, which is now a 4-point home favorite for this 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff. The Rams won three of their first four games SU and ATS in 2016, but got just one win the rest of the way, finishing 4-12 SU (4-11-1 ATS).
“The Colts opened a 3-point favorite here, that was when Luck was questionable but we figured him to play,” Simbal said. “Now we know Luck is not playing, and we’re going to flip the line all the way to a (4-point) favorite for the Rams. The Luck injury was about a 6-, 7-point swing, so clearly a big variance with Andrew Luck not playing.”
At TopBet.eu, the Colts also opened -3, but the line is now Rams -4.5. Jerome said there’s not much sharp action on the game, but a solid majority of cash and tickets are on Los Angeles.
