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The first Sunday of the NFL season can be overwhelming for bettors. That's why Covers put together this must-read collection of all the notes, line moves and betting trends for each of the 12 games. Find out why Lions are afraid of Cardinals and a legendary Lambeau homefield advantage.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9, 40)
The Jets won and covered both matchups against the Bills last season but Gang Green enters the 2017 campaign running operation tank job.
Josh McCown is the Week 1 starter under center for the Jets, which isn’t good for New York backers. McCown has made 31 starts at QB for three different teams since 2013. In those 31 starts, McCown’s teams went 10-21 against the spread.
LINE HISTORY: This line opened as low as Bills -6 back in the spring but the number moved up over the last month. Many shops now have the Jets getting between 9.5 and 10 points.
TRENDS:
* The Over is 8-0 in the Bills’ last eight home games and 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.
* The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (+7, 49)
The Falcons enter the season trying to shed the hangover synonymous with Super Bowl losers the next season. Runners' up from the previous year’s championship game are 5-12 straight up and 2-15 against the spread in Week 1 of the follow-up season.
The Bears want to be a run-oriented offense and they did have the league’s second-leading rusher in Jordan Howard last season. As a team, however, Chicago finished middle of the back in rushing yards per game.
LINE HISTORY: Most books opened this game with the road team giving seven points but there are still shops offering Falcons -6.5. If the public bets heavily on the Falcons, the line could move past the key number and up to 7.5.
TRENDS:
* The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
* The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven September games.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 42.5)
The Ravens are considered a model franchise in the league. They’ve won the Super Bowl twice since 2001 and enter the season as contender in the AFC. But bettors backing Baltimore have been burnt in recent years. The Ravens are just 32-44-4 against the spread since the 2012 season.
Marvin Lewis has been the head coach in Cincinnati for over a decade, but he enters the season on the last year of his contract and with no extension talks in the works. Looks like the Bengals brass want a “show me” season from Lewis this campaign.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this line at Bengals -1.5 but the spread crept up to the key number (-3) at just about all sportsbooks.
TRENDS
* The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two sides.
* The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 47)
Steelers All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell ended his holdout and will play against the Browns on Sunday. How much action he sees isn’t quite as clear. The Steelers are 28-18-2 ATS with Bell in the lineup.
Rookie DeShone Fizer won the QB job in Cleveland. He’ll become the 10th different starting quarterback for the Browns since the start of the 2013 season when he takes the field on Sunday.
LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Browns as 9-point home dogs and some shops have dropped the spread as low as 8 while others have the Steelers giving 9.5 points.
TRENDS
* The Browns are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games, 3-14-2 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 1 and 0-10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against AFC North opponents.
* The Under is 16-7 in the Steelers’ last 23 games overall and 5-0 in the Browns’ last five home games.
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+2, 48)
Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has not done well against the Cardinals. The Lions are 0-4 SU and ATS against the Cards since 2012. Stafford owns a 57.9 combined QB rating in those four games vs. Arizona.
LINE HISTORY: Detroit opened as a 2.5-point favorite but the bettors like the road team in this game. Arizona is now giving 1.5 to 2 points at most books.
TRENDS
* The Over is 16-5 in the Cards’ last 21 road dates and 7-0 in their last 7 games overall.
* The Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-5.5, 39.5)
It’ll be an emotional game for the Texans who host the Jaguars just two weeks after Hurricane Harvey. There was some talk about relocating the game but the Texans were persistent about their desire to play in Houston for Week 1.
Blake Bortles had a terrible training camp and the Jacksonville coaching staff toyed with the idea of benching him for backup QB Chad Henne. Bortles held his job but it’s fair to say the Jags don’t have much confidence in him entering the season.
LINE HISTORY: This line has lived in what Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal call the Vegas Zone – between the key numbers of 3 and 7. It opened Texans -3.5 and now sits around -5.5.
TRENDS
* The Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC South opponents.
* The Over is 8-2 in the Jags’ last 10 games in September.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 50.5)
Wishing luck to the Raiders or Titans by saying “break a leg” is a poor choice of words. Oakland and Tennessee lost their starting quarterbacks to broken leg injuries late last season. Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota are fully healed and participated fully in their teams’ training camp.
The Raiders are one of the most popular bets to win the Super Bowl at many sportsbooks, but as Joe Fortenbaugh pointed out – Oakland outperformed its expected wins last season according to the Pythagorean model. The Raiders won 12 games a year ago but they played more like a 9 win team according to their point differential.
LINE HISTORY: Some books opened with the Raiders as small road favorites but most books now list the Titans giving 1.5 to 2.5 points. This game appears to be a pick’em from the book’s perspective.
TRENDS
* The Titans are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 home games.
* The Over is 8-3 in the Raiders’ last 11 games overall.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+1, 47.5)
Is Carson Wentz a franchise QB or did he get hot early and then the league’s defenses figured him out? The Eagles went 3-0 SU and ATS in Wentz’s first three career starts. Philly won just four of its remaining 13 games and covered the spread just five of them.
It was a weird offseason in Washington. The Redskins fired their GM and defensive coordinator, and they lost their offensive coordinator to the Rams. The front office can’t make its mind up on whether it likes the team’s starting quarterback or even on the name of said quarterback. Kirk? Kurt?
LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as a short home fave but most shops now list the visiting Eagles as 1.5-point chalk.
TRENDS
* The Over is 11-1 in the Eagles’ last 12 road games.
* The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the Redskins.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 41.5)
The Colts won’t have starting QB Andrew Luck available which means bettors are going to get acquainted with Scott Tolzien. The undrafted QB out of Wisconsin came into the league in 2011 with stops in San Francisco and Green Bay before getting picked up by Indy. He’s 1-2 SU and ATS in his three career starts and he didn’t look great in extended play in preseason.
The Rams are still without their best defensive player, Aaron Donald, who is holding out for a new contract.
LINE HISTORY: The Colts were 3-point road favorites all summer until it was announced Luck would not play. Oddsmakers adjusted by making the Rams 3.5-point favorites. That’s a 6.5-point swing on the spread for those of you counting at home. The total also moved down from 47.5 to 41.5.
TRENDS
* The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 1 and 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* The Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in Week 1.
* The Under is 19-9 in the Rams’ last 28 games overall.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3, 51)
The Seahawks and Packers are projected to win their divisions and are listed as the top candidates to win the NFC this season according to oddsmakers. The Packers hope to avoid the slow start from a season ago when they covered the spread in just four of their first 10 games. Green Bay is 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 home openers.
LINE HISTORY: There hasn’t been much movement on the line or total to this game. The Packers are near unanimous 3-point chalk in Vegas and offshore. The total can be found between 49.5 and 50.5 again with little movement.
TRENDS
* The Over is 7-0 in the Packers’ last seven games overall.
* Seattle is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (+5.5, 48)
Which Cam Newton will the Panthers get this season? The league MVP from 2015 or the guy with the bum shoulder who finished with a 75.8 QB rating. Carolina supports are hoping for the former.
Newton had surgery on his throwing shoulder in the offseason and did not throw at all during Carolina’s offseason OTAs and minicamps. He was a full participant in training camp and enters the season with a seemingly clean bill of health.
The Niners enter the season with their fourth different head coach in as many years. A lot of smart people in the league think Kyle Shanahan will be a great head coach. The question is whether or not he can turn the ship around in his first season at the helm.
LINE HISTORY: The line opened around Niners +4 at most shops in late spring and the number climbed as high as 6.5. It seems to be settling in that no-man’s land area of 5.5. The total is sitting at 48 across the board.
TRENDS
* The Niners are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 1 but 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* The over is 17-8 in Carolina’s last 25 road games.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 47.5)
Things are confusing with Zeke Elliott. He will play this weekend but, from the sounds of things, he will have to serve that six-game suspension at some point this season probably beginning next week. Oddsmakers see the 2016 rushing champion worth only a point or a half point to the Cowboys’ weekly game odds.
The G-Men are hoping wideout Odell Beckham Jr. will be available for Sunday. The Giants’ leading receiver the last three seasons hurt his ankle in Week 2 of the preseason and hasn’t played since. Beckham has only missed one game (Week 16 in 2015) since earning his spot in the starting lineup and the Giants lost and failed to cover in that contest.
LINE HISTORY: The spread of this game has been like a yo-yo with the Elliott’s availability coming and going. The Cowboys were as large as 6-point favorites at one point during the offseason and the line went down to as low as -3 at some books last week. Most shops have it at Cowboys -4 heading into the weekend.
TRENDS
* The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Cowboys.
* The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
