Sustainable value from Blount is nothing but a fantasy for owners
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Here's a look at the fantasy repercussions of free-agent RB LeGarrette Blount signing with the Philadelphia Eagles:
Sources: #Eagles are signing ex-#Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth up to $2.8M. Top FA available & another big weapon.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) May 17, 2017
Blount is coming off a career-year in 2016 with the New England Patriots. He set career highs in carries (299), yards (1,161) and touchdowns (18). Even with such a heavy workload, he lost only a single fumble. He had four multi-touchdown games and failed to score in just three contests. Blount had just four 100-yard games on the season, two of which came before QB Tom Brady returned from suspension in Week 5.
Blount had to share the Patriots' backfield with either, or both, Dion Lewis and James White. Neither of them were able to score a rushing touchdown, seeing most of their work in the passing game. Blount finished with 235 and 260 more rushing attempts, respectively, and he had 712 more rushing yards than the pair combined. He should find some more competition for the ground work in Philadelphia.
PPR Bust
Blount finished the year as the RB7 under standard scoring rules. As he finished with just seven receptions (on eight targets) for 38 yards and no touchdowns, he was dropped to the bottom tier of the RB2s in PPR leagues. He has scored just a single receiving touchdown in his career and has averaged just 0.46 receptions per game over his eight-year career.
(Photo courtesy Action Images)
Out of the timeshare and into the committee
There has been wide speculation the Eagles will release their leading rusher from last season in RB Ryan Mathews, leaving Darren Sproles and sophomore-to-be Wendell Smallwood in the backfield. Here's how the work was split between these three last season:
| NAME | ATT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathews | 155 | 661 | 8 |
| Sproles | 94 | 438 | 2 |
| Smallwood | 77 | 312 | 1 |
And in the air...
| NAME | REC | TAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathews | 13 | 14 | 115 | 1 |
| Sproles | 52 | 71 | 427 | 2 |
| Smallwood | 6 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
Sproles, who finished 2016 as the Eagles' third-leading receiver, should be expected to see nearly 100 percent of his 2017 work on passing downs. This will leave Blount and Smallwood to split the rushing duties.
Smallwood averaged 4.1 yards per carry in his rookie season, while Blount rumbled to just 3.9 yards per attempt. Blount led the NFL with 69 red-zone attempts last season, scoring 16 of his 18 touchdowns from inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Smallwood received just seven red-zone carries, scoring his one touchdown.
Blount has a two-inch height advantage and 42 pounds on Smallwood. Expect him to receive all goal-line work, while Sproles operates in the passing game, and Smallwood sees most of the carries between the two 20-yard lines.
Per FantasyFootballCalculator, Blount is currently being selected as RB28 at pick 6.09. Sproles as RB66 at pick No. 14.02 and Smallwood as RB59 at pick No. 13.11. Mathews had been going as RB48 at pick No. 11.04, but he'll likely slip out of the ADP data upon his impending release.
All three could see slight boosts in value upon Mathews' release. Blount and Sproles will really only be of value in standard and PPR leagues, respectively, being nothing more than late-round fliers in the alternate field. Blount should lead the team in touches, while Smallwood should see the most overall work on the ground, allowing him to finish as the Eagles' leading rusher.