DFS: Short-Term Forecast - Danny Amendola

DFS: Short-Term Forecast - Danny Amendola

Greg M. Cooper / Reuters

In many season-long fantasy leagues, especially PPR-scoring formats, the most popular waiver claim of the week was most likely Patriots WR Danny Amendola, who's seen as the heir to Julian Edelman's (and Wes Welker's before him) slot receiver throne.

After Edelman went down with a broken foot partway through the Patriots' win over the Giants, Amendola caught 10 passes for 79 yards, achieving season-highs in receptions and targets (11).

Considering Edelman was more expensive than star TE Rob Gronkowski in most daily fantasy games at the time of his injury, the chance to essentially slot in a heavily-discounted version of Edelman will be a popular play in both cash game and GPP formats.

First, let's look at what Edelman provided. He led Patriots in receptions (61) and targets (88) and was second to Gronkowski in yards and touchdowns. 74 per cent of all Patriots receptions went to the quartet of Edelman, Gronkowski, Amendola and Dion Lewis; two of those four (Edelman and Lewis) are likely lost for the season.

The Patriots average 326 yards passing per game, second only to San Diego, and rank 26th in total rushing attempts, so short and intermediate passes often serve as a substitute for a traditional running game.

Edelman's worst game of the season, statistically, was a 5-54 Week 7 line while lampooned on Revis Island against the Jets. With the exception of his injury-shortened Week 10, he never recorded fewer than four receptions, and in that particular instance, Week 5 against Dallas, compensated with 120 yards and a TD.

As long as Gronkowski can remain healthy, defenses will be preoccupied by slowing down the big tight end, who ranks third in total yards after catch, freeing up space for a slot receiver. Having deep threat Brandon LaFell back also helps, and the ex-Panther has averaged 18.5 yards per catch on 13 receptions in four games since being activated from the short-term IR.

Aaron Dobson essentially hasn't been heard from since registering a 8-87 Week 2 line, and early-season acquisition Keshawn Martin registered six catches in three games but has missed the last four with a hamstring injury.

Those two will likely play larger-than-usual roles out of necessity, but Amendola should see the biggest increase in his usage. He makes a great play this week at home to Buffalo, who QB Tom Brady threw for a season-high 466 yards against in Week 2, but Denver's top-ranked pass defense awaits in Week 12.

Still, for this week at least, Amendola offers incredible value if he's used in the same manner as Edelman was.

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