The majority of new fantasy football players engage in two counterproductive habits: overreaction and recency bias.
These often go hand in hand: for example, we see DeMarco Murray struggle mightily over the first two weeks of the season and assume his week-to-week ceiling must automatically be lower. Or we see that Larry Fitzgerald racked up three touchdowns in Week 2 and immediately add him to our Week 3 daily fantasy lineups.
These habits can be difficult to manage; they're in our nature, after all. But reacting too severely to the events of the previous week or two is the quickest path to fantasy failure - particularly in DFS, where the swings from week to week are enormous.
Tournament play is always going to be a roller-coaster, since usually the payouts are limited to the top 20-30 percent of all entries. Cash game play is designed to be far more stable - 50/50s offer the best odds of a profit - but occasionally, you'll run cold.
But before you overreact to a rough start - either by completely overhauling your cash-game approach, or by chasing your losses through increased entries or game costs - consider taking a breath and evaluating where you may have gone wrong.
Here are four things to consider when examining early-season struggles:
1) Are you entering the right games?
While this isn't an iron-clad rule, the more expensive the game you enter, the more difficult it will be to win. More experienced players populate the higher-priced contests in droves, so you should expect far more competition at that price point. That can put a serious dent in your budget.
Managing your budget is the most important part of the DFS experience, particularly if you're looking to make a long-term profit. And while it may be true that expensive cash games provide the quickest path to a higher bankroll, they can also provide the fastest route to an empty account.
Tip: Try entering more contests at a lower price point; for example, if you have a $50 budget, you could enter 20 contests at $1 apiece and 15 contests at $2, rather than two contests at $25. You limit your risk by spreading out your cash allotment, and you'll find that most games at the lower limit are softer.
2) Are you choosing the right players?
As simple as this seems, roster selection is a major problem for novice daily fantasy players. This is especially true at this point in the NFL season, when fantasy enthusiasts are most likely to overreact to recent developments, allowing recency bias to cloud their judgment of players.
Previous results are almost never predictive; no matter how tempting it may be to pick the cheap guy who had 10 receptions last week, that is likely the best performance he'll have all season. That factor, combined with what is almost surely a higher price tag the following week, is cause for concern.
Tip: Always focus on the highest possible floor. You don't need to finish first in a 50/50 to cash; in fact, the majority of cash games pay off simply by finishing in the top 40 percent. Stick to established options at every position, avoid injury or time-share situations and favor players who see the most work.
3) Are you doing the right research?
Not everyone has the time to pour over DFS strategy articles every day - so finding the right ones is especially critical. As a general rule, cash game players should look for posts that provide information on the week's safest plays - and should ignore anything written about tournament play.
Not all DFS strategy posts are the same - and not all of them will be relevant to your week lineup construction. Selecting a few posts to trust each week is the best approach; dive into too many, and you'll find yourself dealing with a deluge of conflicting information.
Tip: Favor research material that delves deeper into skill players' individual matchups; for example, which defensive back will be assigned to Odell Beckham Jr.? Or how does Adrian Peterson's opponent defend the run? The more homework the writer has done, the more reliable the research will be.
4) Have you just been unlucky?
Tony Romo's broken clavicle. Dez Bryant's foot fracture. DeSean Jackson's wonky hamstring. Injuries are a big part of football - and of daily fantasy, as well. And sometimes, they mean the difference between doubling your money and doubling your frustration level.
Injuries aren't the only things that can torpedo even the best-looking DFS lineup. Occasionally players underperform and are benched. Sometimes they're blanketed by a formidable opponent and become non-factors. And sometimes, you just get beaten by someone with a superior lineup.
Tip: If you're content with the way you've been building your cash-game lineups, don't change a thing - even if you're losing. Experienced players know that even cash-game play features its share of swings - and that things even out over time.
