Whiffing on an early-round pick or unnecessarily reaching for a player can ruin your entire year. Let's try to avoid those mistakes by identifying seven potential busts for the 2026 fantasy season.
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Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️
Williams had a fantastic sophomore season, finishing as the QB5 by throwing for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns in his first year with new head coach Ben Johnson. Williams is currently being drafted as the seventh quarterback off the board, according to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP). That feels a tad rich given the depth at quarterback.
Sure, Williams could easily finish as the QB7 this year. So could Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Jaxson Dart, or Brock Purdy, who are all being selected after him. In fact, Williams is projected to score the 12th-most points among QBs, according to FantasyPros. Yet Joe Burrow (QB6) and Williams are separated by only 10 projected points. Scoring will largely be flat outside of the top five QBs, so why pay up for Williams when you can wait a round or two and take Lawrence?
What's most concerning about Williams is his boom-or-bust style. Last year, the Bears gunslinger had two weeks as the QB1 but also logged eight weeks as the QB15 or worse. Add in the fact that Chicago's fantasy playoff schedule includes three outdoor games (at Buffalo, versus Green Bay, versus Detroit) and Williams could do more to hurt than help your fantasy team's title chances.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️
Mahomes is going roughly in the eighth or ninth round in fantasy drafts, well ahead of players with far more upside, making him a bust at his current ADP.
The two-time MVP set career highs in rushing yards (422) and rushing touchdowns (five) last season, but he's already indicated that he plans to run less after tearing his ACL in December. Without that weekly safety net of five rushes for 30 yards, Mahomes is more likely than not to finish outside of the top 12 quarterbacks, his current ADP at quarterback.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Achane is the last man standing in Miami. He was a key member of the Dolphins' once-explosive offense that also featured Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Mike McDaniel, the mastermind behind it all, is gone too.
That leaves a ton of question marks surrounding Achane, who's currently being picked as the seventh running back off the board. Malik Willis is the Dolphins' new quarterback, Jeff Hafley is their new head coach, and Bobby Slowik is their new offensive coordinator following an uninspiring two-year stint as the Texans' play-caller. There's not much to be optimistic about.
Willis, who logged 19 rushing attempts in his two notable appearances for the Packers last season, will take some touches away from Achane. Although the Texas A&M product has recorded back-to-back seasons with at least 67 receptions, don't expect him to meet that mark again in 2026. Willis is likely take off and run much more frequently than Tua Tagovailoa, whose dump-offs to Achane provided the running back a safe fantasy floor.
The Dolphins' win total is 4.5, and the under is favored. They'll struggle to win games - and likely to score points. That's a recipe for disaster when selecting a running back in the late first or early second round.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
As a rookie, Irving became one of the steals of the draft in 2024. Then, his injury-riddled second season was among the worst at his position. Now, he's being selected as the 21st running back - ahead of players with far less risk and substantially more upside.
Irving's numbers dropped off considerably in 2025 compared to his rookie campaign. Two years ago, he ranked in the top five among running backs with at least 100 carries in expected points added per play (EPA/play) and yards per carry, according to SumerSports. He was also in the top 10 in success rate and explosive rate. Last year, Irving was in the bottom five in all four of those categories.
Perhaps injuries were the sole reason for his lack of production and he's in line for a return to form. However, Irving now has to compete with free-agent acquisition Kenneth Gainwell for the receiving-down work, and Sean Tucker may steal a handful of valuable goal-line carries as well.
D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Bhayshul Tuten, and Jadarian Price are better options who are being taken after Irving.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Rice is going as the 13th receiver off the board, which is too high a price for a player with so many question marks. His health is a major concern. Rice had offseason knee surgery in May and then began rehabbing the injury while serving a 30-day jail sentence. There hasn't been a positive training camp report, either. He's appeared sluggish in drills and is struggling to create separation.
Then there's the Chiefs' offense, which is expected to be more run-heavy following the signing of Kenneth Walker III. Keeping Mahomes upright and protected will be Andy Reid's top priority.
Rice may still put up reasonable numbers, but there are several other options who are safer bets despite being selected later, including DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins, and Zay Flowers.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year is being taken as the 18th wideout off the board, which is roughly the fourth round of 12-team drafts. That is an absurd price to pay for a player with an extremely low floor and mediocre ceiling, as proven by his weekly finishes in 2025.
McMillan ranked as the WR18 or higher four times last season. In his 13 games beyond that mark, McMillan's average weekly finish was WR43. In other words, he was better off on your bench in 75% of his games, including Week 17 (the fantasy football championship) when he caught one pass for five yards.
McMillan isn't to blame for his low floor and capped ceiling; Bryce Young's limitations will make it difficult for the second-year wideout to deliver on his draft price. Additionally, Jalen Coker is healthy and ready to command some of the limited targets. McConkey, Waddle, DJ Moore, Luther Burden III, and Terry McLaurin are all being picked after McMillan and are in much better situations.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Fannin had a great rookie year, producing 72 receptions for 731 yards and six touchdowns - good for TE6 on the season. However, his only competition for targets was Jerry Jeudy and a bunch of rotational players. Fannin logged 107 targets and Jeudy recorded 106, yet no other Browns pass-catcher had more than 50.
That will change this year on account of Cleveland selecting two wideouts in the first 39 picks of April's draft. KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston can serve as legitimate threats in the passing game, not to mention Jeudy is still on the team. Yes, David Njoku is now a Charger, but he became a part-time player once Fannin emerged as the top tight end, anyway.
Additionally, Kevin Stefanski is no longer Cleveland's head coach, and he took his tight-end-friendly offensive scheme to Atlanta. New coach Todd Monken had success with tight ends in Baltimore, but two-time MVP Lamar Jackson led that offense. The combination of Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, along with the increased competition for targets, puts Fannin at risk of becoming a bust based on his sixth-round draft position.
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