Whiffing on an early-round pick or making an unnecessary reach on a player can ruin your entire year. Let's try to avoid those mistakes by identifying five potential busts for the 2026 fantasy season.
More from this series:
- 10 breakout players to target
- Sleepers to steal - July 15
- Players we love - July 16
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️
Caleb Williams had a fantastic sophomore season, finishing as the QB5 by throwing for nearly 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns in his first year with new head coach Ben Johnson. But Williams is currently being drafted as the sixth quarterback off the board, according to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP), which feels a tad rich given the available depth.
Sure, Williams could easily finish as the QB6 this year. So could Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, or Brock Purdy, who are all being selected after him. There's a clear top five - Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Joe Burrow - which means Williams is being selected as the top quarterback in a lower tier. That rarely turns out to be good value.
What's most concerning about Williams is his boom-or-bust style. The Bears gunslinger spent two weeks last year as the QB1 but also had eight weeks as QB15 or worse, which is considered unstartable in standard 12-team leagues. Add in the fact that the Bears' fantasy playoff schedule includes three outdoor games (at Buffalo, versus Green Bay, versus Detroit), and Williams could do more to hurt than help your fantasy team's title chances.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
De'Von Achane is the last man standing in Miami. He was a key member of a once-explosive offense that also featured Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Mike McDaniel, the mastermind behind it all, is gone too.
That leaves a ton of question marks surrounding Achane, who's currently being picked as the 11th running back off the board. Malik Willis is the Dolphins' new quarterback, Jeff Hafley is their new head coach, and Bobby Slowik is their new offensive coordinator after an uninspiring two-year stint calling plays for the Texans. There's not much to be optimistic about in Miami.
Willis is a run-first quarterback who will take touches away from Achane. Although Achane's had back-to-back seasons of at least 67 receptions, don't expect him to meet that mark again in 2026. The Dolphins' win total is only 4.5, and the under is favored. Miami will struggle to win games - and likely also struggle to score points. That's a recipe for disaster when selecting a running back in the late first or early second round.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
As a rookie, Bucky Irving was one of the steals of the draft two years ago. His injury-riddled second season was one of the worst at his position. Now he's being selected as the 24th running back - ahead of players with far less risk and substantially more upside.
When he was on the field in 2025, Irving's numbers dropped off massively compared to his rookie campaign. Two years ago, Irving ranked in the top five among running backs with at least 100 carries in expected points added per play (EPA/play) and yards per carry, according to SumerSports. He was also in the top 10 in success rate and explosive rate. Last year, he was in the bottom five in all four of those categories.
Injuries could be the sole reason for his lack of production, and he's got a chance to rebound and return to the running back we saw in 2024. But the draft price for taking on that risk is far too high right now. Leaving drafts with Irving as your RB2 ahead of players such as Bhayshul Tuten, Jadarian Price, or Jaylen Warren is a massive mistake.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Malik Nabers' draft stock is worth monitoring closely throughout August, but as it stands, he should not be the 18th wide receiver off the board.
Nabers' recovery from an ACL tear is not going as smoothly as hoped. He required a clean-up procedure during the offseason, and a viral video of him attempting to run at a celebrity softball game in late May suggested he's not close to full strength.
The Giants wideout is being selected ahead of several receivers who project to have better years, including Garrett Wilson, Luther Burden III, and Terry McLaurin. Nabers could be a viable fantasy asset toward the second half of the season, but there's too much uncertainty here to justify burning your third-round pick.
Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️
Makai Lemon primarily played out of the slot during his time at USC, and he projects to fill that role with the Eagles as a rookie. Unfortunately, Jalen Hurts has been reluctant to throw between the hash marks over the last few seasons, and that's where Lemon will run most of his routes.
Even if that philosophy changes and Hurts becomes more willing to make riskier throws through the heart of the defense, Lemon has plenty of competition for targets. Dallas Goedert and rookie Eli Stowers will also be running routes in similar areas of the field. Lemon is likely better than those two, but things are more complicated with more bodies.
Lemon is being selected ahead of receivers like DK Metcalf, Alec Pierce, and Courtland Sutton who have much safer floors and very similar upside. If Lemon's ADP slips into the 100s instead of where it is now (73), he may be worth the risk - but he's a hard pass at WR35.
More from this series:
- 10 breakout players to target
- Sleepers to steal - July 15
- Players we love - July 16
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