Super Bowl picks: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
We already chose our favorite player props and touchdown scorers for Super Bowl LX. Now, it's time to make some bets on the outcome.
The spread seems to have settled, as the Seahawks remain 4.5-point favorites and -230 on the moneyline (69.7% implied win probability). Let's see how our three betting writers round out their Super Bowl selections.
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🏈 Bet: Seahawks -4.5 (-110)
Deeg - Bet $110 to win $100
Even with the spread being more than a field goal, it's hard not to back the Seahawks in this game. After some shaky performances at the end of the regular season, Sam Darnold and Seattle's offense have rolled through the playoffs. The 28-year-old quarterback has shut down any questions about his oblique injury, and he's coming off arguably the best game of his career.
The Seahawks' most significant advantage is their pass rush versus the Patriots' offensive line. Their unit can get into the backfield without sending extra bodies; Seattle ranked fourth in pressure rate when not blitzing this season. New England, on the other hand, ranked 29th in pressure rate allowed when teams rushed four or fewer players. Drake Maye has looked uncomfortable in the pocket of late, and his pressure-to-sack rate through three postseason games is an absurd 45.5%. To put that into perspective, Geno Smith had the highest rate of any quarterback in the regular season at 25.9%. The Patriots' offensive line hasn't played well lately, and Mike Macdonald is the best in the business at exposing poor play up front.
As evidenced by past Super Bowls, teams that can create pressure with only four rushers often hoist the Lombardi Trophy. I think the Seahawks will cause enough chaos rushing the passer to win by a touchdown.
🏈 Bet: Patriots +4.5 (-110)
Oshtry - Bet $75 to win $65
I'm fading my guy Deeg. For starters, we know the underdog trend: They've covered five straight Super Bowls and 17 of the last 24. Furthermore, favorites of at least 4.5 points are 1-10 against the spread since 2000. Underdogs deserve consideration in every Super Bowl - but especially this one. I strongly believe the Seahawks aren't a field goal better than the Patriots at a neutral site.
While Deeg makes a great point that Maye has struggled in the postseason against strong fronts, which Seattle owns, two weeks of rest and preparation should help him deliver on the biggest stage. With that said, this pick is more about New England's defense, which has limited opponents all season. For those claiming the Patriots faced an easy path to the Super Bowl, let's start by acknowledging that they had the NFL's fourth-best scoring defense during the regular season. They've been a consistently dominant group all year. As for their playoff opponents, isn't Justin Herbert universally recognized as a top-10 quarterback, and wasn't C.J. Stroud in that conversation two seasons ago? Don't move the goalposts just because New England's defense stifled them and their offensive lines.
While Darnold's incredible NFC championship performance silenced critics, he hasn't earned complete trust in huge games. He's prone to turnovers, which the Patriots' defense will capitalize on. At the very least, this low-scoring defensive battle will come down to a field goal.
🏈 Bet: Patriots +7.5 and under 49.5 points (+125)
Patterson - Bet $150 to win $187.53
The 4.5-point spread feels fair, so it's tough to pick what I view as a true coin flip. Instead, I'll create a small parlay based on how I predict the game will unfold.
I think the Seahawks can win by a touchdown, but I can also see the Patriots pulling off the upset. What I don't envision is a blowout, as I believe the contest will be decided in the fourth quarter.
Both teams rely heavily on their defenses to win games, and both quarterbacks are playing in their first Super Bowl. This could easily turn into a defensive struggle, especially in the first half as both sides battle through nerves and feel out each other's game plan.
Moving the game total from 45.5 to 49.5 covers me if Seattle wins 28-21. I expect an outcome closer to 21-17 in favor of the Seahawks but will happily pay a little more for some added insurance.
Looking for more betting content? Check out our Super Bowl betting hub here.
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