Hart Trophy Rankings: MacKinnon, McDavid make major moves

The NHL's MVP race is starting to take shape now that the calendar has flipped to 2024.

A few of our previous contenders from earlier in the season are still in the hunt, but two perennial candidates who were on the outside looking in for much of the campaign's early stages are now leading the pack.

Conversely, Auston Matthews is pacing the league with 30 goals in 35 games, 11 more tallies than William Nylander's notched this season. But Nylander leads the Toronto Maple Leafs with six more points than his American teammate, so it's tough to give Matthews significant Hart consideration when he's not even leading his team in the points department.

Likewise, Sebastian Aho has been one of the NHL's most productive players since we last examined this award on Dec. 8. The Carolina Hurricanes star has 10 more assists and 16 more points than his closest teammates. However, Aho is still on the fringes of the league scoring race, and his underlying numbers aren't as strong as the others over the campaign.

Here are our top five MVP hopefuls at this juncture:

xGF% = Expected goals for percentage at five-on-five

5. David Pastrnak

Pastrnak's bid has taken a hit, as his underlying numbers have been subpar since our last edition. But the Boston Bruins' dynamo has built up huge disparities between his own production and that of his teammates, with eight more goals, eight more assists, and 18 more points than any of them.

Despite posting xGF and scoring chances for percentages below 50 over his past 12 games (47.04 and 49.67, respectively), those numbers remain above the threshold (including an SCF% of 53.44) over the balance of the season.

Pastrnak no longer has as ironclad of a case as the others listed here, but he'll be in the conversation as long as he keeps carrying a Bruins team that impressively remains near the top of the league standings.

4. Artemi Panarin

Panarin has cooled off a bit since he led this race a month ago, but the New York Rangers' catalyst is still providing plenty of value. He has four more goals, two more assists, and 15 more points than any other Blueshirts skater this season.

The 32-year-old has collected eight tallies and eight helpers in 13 games since our last edition, and his underlying numbers have been excellent, both in that span and for the season. Over Panarin's last 13 games, his five-on-five xGF and SCF percentages of 56.73 and 58.2, respectively, are essentially consistent with his rates in those categories over the balance of the campaign.

Panarin remains one of the NHL's top scorers and point producers while averaging what would be his most ice time since 2019-20.

3. Nikita Kucherov

Kucherov's candidacy should be no surprise, considering he leads the NHL in points while ranking among the league leaders in both goals and assists. The Tampa Bay Lightning winger could've been the front-runner if not for two superior candidates who've been more productive lately while authoring better underlying numbers than the Bolts veteran.

However, Kucherov has a strong case. The 30-year-old has 10 more goals, four more assists, and a whopping 24 more points than his closest Lightning teammates. His 34 even-strength points have been bested by a single NHLer (more on him later), and his average ice time is better than all but three other forwards in the league.

Kucherov's analytic figures aren't too shabby, either. Tampa Bay has controlled 54.94% of the scoring chances with the Russian playmaker on the ice at five-on-five in 2023-24. He's also among the NHL's elite in wins above replacement, goals above replacement, and standings points above replacement.

2. Connor McDavid

Two things hindered McDavid's case earlier on: The Edmonton Oilers' woes and the fact that the superstar (perhaps understandably) wasn't meeting the sky-high standard he'd set in recent years. Well, order has been restored to the universe as the Oilers are back in the playoff picture, and McDavid is once again playing on an otherworldly level.

He's not scoring goals at his typical rate, but the reigning MVP and three-time winner is still making a major impact. McDavid now ranks fourth in the NHL in WAR, GAR, and SPAR. Leon Draisaitl and others have come close to matching McDavid's production in certain respects over the years, but the latter has 12 more assists and 11 more points than his closest teammates this season.

Only our new No. 1 candidate has more even-strength points than McDavid and Kucherov, who are among those tied for second in that category. That and the fact that McDavid has vaulted up to second in the league in both assists and points (tied in the latter) is especially commendable, considering he's played fewer games than his counterparts due to his late-October injury. Whether McDavid will be able to get back on the throne remains to be seen, but the Oilers captain's status as a legitimate Hart contender in 2023-24 is no longer in question.

1. Nathan MacKinnon

MacKinnon's performance this season had been overshadowed by that of Cale Makar, who until recently had earned some serious MVP consideration of his own. But it's the Colorado Avalanche center - not the defenseman - who's been in another stratosphere lately.

Over the last month, in particular, MacKinnon has been on an absolute tear. He leads all NHL skaters in points by far since our last edition, with 28 in 13 games. Only 13 of those came at even strength, but he leads the league with 38 even-strength points on the season. The 28-year-old has also averaged more ice time in all situations this season than any NHL forward aside from teammate Mikko Rantanen, who leads by five seconds.

MacKinnon has 16 more points than the closest Avalanche skater (Rantanen) and five more assists than the second-ranked Makar. The blue-liner missed five games due to injury, but those disparities are still impressive, considering how much firepower Colorado possesses. MacKinnon has dealt with injuries himself in the past, but he's played every game for the Avalanche this season, leading the NHL in assists and sitting in a tie with Kucherov for the most points.

What's even more impressive is how dominant MacKinnon has been in terms of the underlying numbers. In addition to his stellar xGF and SCF percentages (the latter being 59.48 at five-on-five), he leads all NHL skaters in WAR, GAR, and SPAR. Those factor in two-way play, effectively illustrating why MacKinnon is the new Hart front-runner.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)