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NFL Week 9 player props: Jonathan Taylor turns back the clock?

Michael Hickey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

If he doesn't see the field again this season, Desmond Ridder's last act of philanthropy before being pulled was getting over his rushing yards total. Of course, the Patriots' desire to establish the run with Ezekiel Elliott while down two touchdowns mitigated that bit of good fortune. Another 5-5 split keeps us a game over .500 in our fun-to-follow secondary bets.

Jonathan Taylor: Over 68.5 rushing yards

Back in the good old days (last year), Taylor used to be lined between 75.5 and 95.5 rushing yards when he was full steam ahead. Let's look at how he's trending since getting back on the field for the Colts.

5 10 18
6 33 19
7 35 75
8 43 95

Now Taylor faces a Panthers run defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season. On the road, look for Taylor to get his heaviest workload of the campaign.

Trey McBride: Over 4.5 receptions (+110)

Fantasy football managers desperate for an impact player in their tight end slot have been jumping to add McBride. The 2022 second-round pick has been stuck behind veteran Zach Ertz for snaps on an offense frequently trailing. Well, now Ertz is on injured reserve, and McBride went from being on the field for around 50% of the offensive snaps to 82% last week. Sure enough, he was the check-down target, with ten catches on 14 targets. They may not be long gains, and he may not find the end zone, but as 11.5-point underdogs, the Cardinals will be looking for a still under-the-radar target for Clayton Tune.

Jordan Love: Under 218.5 passing yards

The Packers are favored against the Rams, at least until there's a verdict on Matthew Stafford's availability. The assumption is Green Bay shouldn't be in a trailing game state. It took 41 pass attempts for Love to get to 229 yards last week. In the other two high-volume games for the Packers quarterback, the team trailed big at halftime against Detroit and New Orleans. A more neutral game state should mean more reliance on the run, especially with Matt Lafleur announcing that they're "ready to cut Aaron Jones loose."

D'Onta Foreman: Over 40.5 rushing yards

The plan fell apart early last Sunday night when the Bears found themselves trailing in Los Angeles. Foreman didn't get the 15-plus carries that Chicago wants to give him to help control the line of scrimmage. The Saints got gashed by a pair of Colts tailbacks last week, so there will be ample opportunity for Foreman to angry-run his way to over 40 yards in New Orleans.

Jaren Hall: Over 15.5 rushing yards

Don't tell anybody, but Hall can run the ball. The rookie out of BYU recorded a 10-plus-yard rush in 15 games over his last two college football seasons. Hall provides a different look for defending the Vikings, and head coach/play-caller Kevin O'Connell should be able to cook up a game plan to use the athleticism that Kirk Cousins doesn't have at the position.

Zach Charbonnet: Over 18.5 rushing yards

After missing Week 7, Charbonnet came back and out-snapped Seahawks starter Kenneth Walker against the Browns last week. Five carries for 53 yards earned Charbonnet praise from Pete Carroll, who doesn't mind handing the ball off repeatedly. The Ravens lead the league in defending the pass but have been average in stopping the run.

Baker Mayfield: Under 241.5 passing yards

If a tight point spread equals a close game, there should be no need for Mayfield to throw it so many times that he has no choice but to go over his passing yard total. We should get an average number of throws against a Texans secondary that's performed above average at home, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt.

Mac Jones: Over 21.5 pass completions

The Commanders traded two members of their vaunted defensive line this week, and the remaining two - Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne - are astute at clogging the middle of the line of scrimmage. We don't want to rely on Jones to provide explosive plays or even more attempts than usual. But the expectation should be that he can make drive-extending completions against a defense ranked 30th in opponents' yards per attempt.

Josh Jacobs: Under 72.5 rushing yards

Facing a team they knew would want to lean on the run game last week, the Giants held Breece Hall to just 17 yards on 12 carries. With rookie Aidan O'Connell getting the start, the expectation might be that the Raiders will run it more with Jacobs. However, O'Connell won't be shy considering Las Vegas is hoping the quarterback will give the team a more efficient passing game. We'll bet against Jacobs having close to his best performance of the season.

Jalen Hurts: Over 253.5 passing yards

Hurts has gone over his passing yardage total in six straight games. While those totals were (mostly) shorter than this number, he would have cleared this bar had they all been lined at 253.5. Oddsmakers aren't catching up to how often, how deep, and how well Hurts has been throwing. Mix in the issue with his knee that's keeping him in the pocket and a probable 60-minute slugfest with the Cowboys, and he should make it seven overs in a row.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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