2023 Detroit Lions betting preview: Rare air in the Motor City
Maybe we've got an early sign this is Detroit's year. It initially looked bad when C.J. Gardner-Johnson was carted off the field before we even realized practices started. But the new Lions defensive back - signed away from the Eagles - reportedly feels OK, making this the kind of fortunate break this franchise isn't accustomed to.
Lions fans and bettors will be on their toes for signs from above since they rarely have preseason expectations this high. We don't usually touch on season awards until the end of this article, but Dan Campbell being the favorite to win Coach of the Year deserves mentioning as soon as possible. Maybe award voters will be impressed if Detroit takes the NFC North, but the betting market won't be surprised.
The Lions are 23-11 against the spread in Campbell's first two seasons. That record will endear him to us, but you normally need to beat the betting market by quite a bit to win Coach of the Year.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.5 (-125/+105) |
| Division | +130 |
| Conference | +1000 |
| Super Bowl | +2200 |
| Estimated rating | 58/100 |
The bar is set high for Detroit in betting markets. The team's futures odds and win total put it in the same tier as clubs that made the playoffs last season - Cowboys, Chargers, and Dolphins - or added a future Hall of Fame quarterback - Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Time will tell whether that's fair. With their checkered history, the Lions haven't had the chance to disappoint in this way. They haven't been favored to win their division since it was called the NFC Central. This is Detroit's highest win total in 30 years.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @KC | KC -7 |
| 2 | SEA | DET -2.5 |
| 3 | ATL | DET -5 |
| 4 | @GB | DET -1.5 |
| 5 | CAR | DET -5 |
| 6 | @TB | DET -3.5 |
| 7 | @BAL | BAL -3 |
| 8 | LV | DET -4.5 |
| 10 | @LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 11 | CHI | DET -5 |
| 12 | GB | DET -4 |
| 13 | @NO | NO -1 |
| 14 | @CHI | DET -1.5 |
| 15 | DEN | DET -2 |
| 16 | @MIN | MIN -1 |
| 17 | @DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 18 | MIN | DET -2.5 |
The Lions are projected favorites in 11 games this season. After getting the surprising honor of opening night in Kansas City, their season might be shaped by a run of five games in which they're currently favored by between 1.5 and five points. Outside of Week 1, every one of their games might have a line under six points.
What's to like about the Lions
Ben Johnson's offense might not be a finished product. However, the offensive coordinator's high-leverage play-calling is outstanding, and you can move the skill-position pieces around the way Detroit does when your offensive line is stacked - especially if Halapoulivaati Vaitai returns from a back injury.
In a continuing effort to improve the defense, the Lions got solid production last season from a pair of 2022 sixth-round selections, with James Houston recording eight sacks and Malcolm Rodriguez compiling 87 tackles. Add 2022 first-round pick Aidan Hutchinson and 2023 first-round pick Jack Campbell, and you've got exemplary roster building.
What's not to like about the Lions
While the Lions have done well building the front seven, they've swung and missed in those same efforts in the secondary. The Gardner-Johnson injury scare illuminates concerns. Detroit almost fully overhauled a unit that gave up the third-most passing yards last campaign. But until we see it on the field, the secondary is still a question mark in a league getting more pass-heavy by the season.
Jameson Williams got into some games after returning from his knee injury but received a six-game suspension by the NFL this offseason. Detroit will have to wait for his potential production. Marvin Jones is back, and the Lions hope to get one last quality season out of him. That puts a lot on Amon-Ra St. Brown's shoulders for key targets from Jared Goff.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | MVP | +4000 |
| Most passing yards | +2500 | |
| Most passing TD | +3500 | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Offensive POTY | +3500 |
| Most receptions | +1800 | |
| Most receiving yards | +3500 | |
| Most receiving TD | +5000 | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Offensive ROTY | +1000 |
| Most rushing yards | +7000 | |
| Most rushing TD | +7500 | |
| Aidan Hutchinson | Defensive POTY | +2500 |
| Most sacks | +1800 | |
| Jack Campbell | Defensive ROTY | +1400 |
| Dan Campbell | Coach of the Year | +850 |
It might take a 40-touchdown campaign from Goff if Detroit is going to surpass these new lofty expectations and rise to a division-winning 10-plus-win team. The quarterback isn't known for loving cold-weather football, but only a December trip to Chicago versus the Bears - a defense on the rebuild - puts him in uncomfortable conditions. Do we dare suggest Goff as this year's dark-horse MVP? Admittedly, a most-passing-yards bet is a more feasible market.
The replaceability of running backs has been a hot topic this summer. There's no better example of the concern than the Lions moving on from Jamaal Williams, last season's league leader in touchdowns, and D'Andre Swift, an explosive playmaker when healthy. That could be construed as a devaluation of assets at the tailback position, but Detroit spent its first-round pick on Jahmyr Gibbs. The rookie rusher has the ceiling of prime Alvin Kamara. If that's the case, he'll replace Williams and Swift's combined 22 rushing and three receiving touchdowns. With that kind of opportunity to pile up stats, the Offensive Rookie of the Year might be Gibbs' floor if he can stay healthy.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.